Inferior-Intent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

22.8%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$772

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 05-04 10:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

47% 100% +$1

Other

37% 0% $-10

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

6% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$99	243	227	+16	open	—	03-26 20:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$66	48	45	+3	open	—	04-03 22:23
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 6 2026 21c	2	$40	30	29	+1	open	—	04-06 10:36
highest temperature in miami on april 1 2026 80 81f	5	$28	34	30	+4	open	—	04-01 18:07
will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	3	$27	358	50	+308	open	—	03-21 14:21
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	2	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	04-03 21:30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$24	18	18	+0	open	—	03-29 17:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	04-03 21:34
nba lal mia 2026 03 19	1	$17	51	0	+51	open	—	03-19 18:08
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$16	58	58	+0	open	—	03-25 19:54
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	2	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	04-04 18:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$13	25	25	+0	open	—	04-07 19:34
nba atl hou 2026 03 20	1	$13	32	0	+32	open	—	03-20 19:56
btc updown 5m 1775327100	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-04 18:29
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-08 19:42
highest temperature in miami on april 1 2026 78 79f	3	$11	24	24	+0	open	—	04-01 14:37
nba gsw det 2026 03 20	1	$11	32	0	+32	open	—	03-20 19:55
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$9	12	12	+0	open	—	04-07 19:52
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$9	23	23	+0	open	—	04-07 21:05
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	03-26 20:51
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	2	$9	10	5	+5	open	—	03-21 14:26
will 30 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	2	$8	41	41	+0	open	—	04-09 22:33
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	2	$8	13	13	+0	open	—	04-08 19:42
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	4	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	04-24 04:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	04-23 14:15
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?	3	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-21 02:30
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	2	$7	17	17	+0	open	—	03-21 00:10
btc updown 5m 1775931600	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-11 18:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	04-17 16:10
highest temperature in miami on april 1 2026 84 85f	8	$7	254	242	+12	open	—	04-01 18:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-04 10:08:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x1a225e…
05-04 03:08:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x8d84fd…
05-02 15:14:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xc2868e…
05-01 22:10:24	US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x473c12…
05-01 21:03:00	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xecf140…
05-01 20:41:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xa063f1…
05-01 16:49:12	Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0df094…
04-26 03:38:46	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0xe251fd…
04-25 16:51:52	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x73d112…
04-24 04:59:12	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xa7b0aa…
04-23 18:10:42	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xf11e40…
04-23 14:15:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x1baee3…
04-21 14:01:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x9fba91…
04-21 08:03:48	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xe1fc74…
04-21 02:30:46	Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?	Yes	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x6b6463…
04-20 12:02:18	will the super mario galaxy movie 3rd weekend box office be between 34m and 37m	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xabeaf5…
04-20 11:56:46	will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	11	14¢	$1	0xd72b0e…
04-19 13:00:00	will vitality win iem rio 2026	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xaddce3…
04-19 12:44:28	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xa79da9…
04-19 12:30:42	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xd3ba0a…
04-19 12:30:10	Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xfeeccb…
04-19 12:26:36	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x3d0f07…
04-19 11:30:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0xd8f77f…
04-18 16:30:20	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5f6567…
04-18 16:29:20	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x656008…
04-18 16:29:18	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xde5e2f…
04-18 16:28:22	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$1	0xe2105b…
04-18 12:38:34	Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xfba313…
04-18 12:38:34	Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$0	0x3c3288…
04-18 12:38:34	Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x0855e4…
04-18 12:31:44	btc updown 5m 1776515400	Up	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xb1ccb2…
04-18 12:31:44	btc updown 5m 1776515400	Up	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xa46ac9…
04-18 12:30:26	btc updown 5m 1776515400	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x130889…
04-17 16:10:46	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x7e7199…
04-17 16:05:32	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xc92b20…
04-17 10:14:50	will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x407a50…
04-17 09:51:36	gpt 5pt5 released by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x59f85b…
04-17 09:51:12	gpt 5pt5 released by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x943eea…
04-16 19:04:18	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0x52f0c2…
04-16 19:03:22	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x896cf7…
04-16 18:57:58	Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x411c9d…
04-16 18:55:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x7d41ca…
04-16 18:48:08	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x7ebce7…
04-16 18:48:00	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x2a79a8…
04-16 18:47:52	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0x3e0408…
04-16 18:47:32	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x6ee904…
04-16 16:03:22	gpt 5pt5 released by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x16e1ce…
04-16 16:00:14	gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x963263…
04-16 09:35:40	Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x4297f1…
04-16 09:30:04	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xb9b253…
04-15 19:06:36	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x0c2cb4…
04-15 14:46:26	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xda2c10…
04-15 14:46:26	Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0xd4a259…
04-15 14:45:00	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x13aed6…
04-15 14:19:16	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x701b1d…
04-14 16:57:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x3aa981…
04-12 19:42:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xfdaf19…
04-12 18:51:01	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0xaad7a7…
04-11 23:33:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0xa9c4e9…
04-11 20:41:47	US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xcb4e77…
04-11 18:48:27	btc updown 5m 1775933100	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x02be1f…
04-11 18:45:41	btc updown 5m 1775933100	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0x6973dd…
04-11 18:45:41	btc updown 5m 1775933100	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x09a41d…
04-11 18:38:35	btc updown 5m 1775932800	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x830fd3…
04-11 18:30:01	btc updown 5m 1775931900	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xd1e114…
04-11 18:25:51	btc updown 5m 1775931900	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4cd629…
04-11 18:23:07	btc updown 5m 1775931600	Up	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x0e327c…
04-11 18:22:33	btc updown 5m 1775931600	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x0e71e9…
04-11 13:43:37	US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xe8cc07…
04-11 07:22:45	US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x7f82b9…
04-10 19:53:49	Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x57dde5…
04-09 22:33:25	will 30 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	41	16¢	$6	0x3a4480…
04-08 21:44:21	will 40 49 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x4a83af…
04-08 21:43:47	will 40 49 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$1	0xd9907d…
04-08 21:28:15	will 50 59 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x286a3c…
04-08 21:20:31	will 50 59 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0x5344e8…
04-08 20:30:25	will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xf2b561…
04-08 19:44:33	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x845ff5…
04-08 19:42:47	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	No	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0xa9c12a…
04-08 19:42:25	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x9e141c…
04-08 18:54:43	will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xfd6944…
04-08 18:51:21	will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x65b438…
04-08 18:50:27	will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x3cd069…
04-08 18:43:59	will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x8dfa54…
04-08 16:39:35	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x26c5ed…
04-08 16:37:33	Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x32cafe…
04-08 16:36:01	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	35	6¢	$2	0x42a9f9…
04-08 16:35:19	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x37a56c…
04-08 16:34:05	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xa62707…
04-08 16:26:03	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	No	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x433a6b…
04-08 16:25:17	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x5d7014…
04-08 15:49:59	will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xbef0b4…
04-08 14:31:01	will 50 59 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0xf6975a…
04-08 14:29:59	will fewer than 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	120	2¢	$2	0xfa9ce4…
04-08 14:29:19	will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xd5bebd…
04-08 14:28:59	will 30 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0xa7c936…
04-08 14:28:41	will 40 49 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x39337b…
04-07 22:17:47	Will Elena Rybakina win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xe61985…
04-07 21:05:01	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	23	30¢	$7	0x9854a2…
04-07 19:52:25	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	12	46¢	$6	0x163832…