Key-Pelican — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

440

lifetime

Volume

$123.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$280

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 06-11 05:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

66% — —

Other

22% — —

Crypto

12% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$15.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-05 09:47
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	16	$12.7K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	03-06 06:09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	49	$11.9K	10,398	10,398	+0	open	—	03-04 16:24
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	14	$10.5K	28,000	28,000	+0	open	—	05-23 02:03
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	10	$10.2K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	06-08 07:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$9.4K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	05-26 06:02
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	25	$8.1K	4,789	4,789	+0	open	—	03-09 10:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$7.1K	4,400	8,213	-3,813	open	—	05-28 05:25
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	02-11 13:45
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	40	$3.4K	6,911	6,911	+0	open	—	03-30 12:57
wti up or down on june 11 2026	5	$2.7K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	06-11 05:25
cbb tenn iowast 2026 03 27	5	$2.4K	1,532	1,100	+432	open	—	03-28 04:33
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	21	$2.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	05-15 05:09
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	5	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-22 05:20
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	24	$1.9K	2,741	1,259	+1,482	open	—	05-21 06:22
cbb ncst tx 2026 03 17	10	$1.7K	1,099	1,099	+0	open	—	03-18 03:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	3	$1.2K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	05-24 01:27
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?	3	$1.2K	850	1,550	-700	open	—	05-14 03:06
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$1.1K	685	685	+0	open	—	03-01 07:38
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	4	$951	980	0	+980	open	—	02-27 10:48
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	17	$850	1,010	990	+20	open	—	03-27 03:00
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?	3	$784	834	0	+834	open	—	02-06 02:34
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	4	$777	500	500	+0	open	—	04-12 04:57
wti up or down on june 5 2026	5	$727	807	807	+0	open	—	06-05 02:34
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	2	$721	440	440	+0	open	—	05-28 05:39
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	8	$669	1,200	200	+1,000	open	—	05-18 07:36
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$585	1,045	0	+1,045	open	—	04-13 21:45
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18?	5	$503	811	189	+622	open	—	05-18 05:08
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	17	$490	903	600	+303	open	—	05-18 13:52
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$486	500	0	+500	open	—	02-06 03:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 05:25:30	wti up or down on june 11 2026	Up	SELL	3,000	42¢	$1,264	0x389800…
06-11 04:45:49	wti up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	1,779	47¢	$836	0xe241db…
06-11 04:44:16	wti up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	500	47¢	$235	0x8961eb…
06-11 04:41:18	wti up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	252	47¢	$118	0xf854bc…
06-11 04:40:34	wti up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	469	47¢	$220	0xe535f5…
06-08 07:29:42	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	SELL	952	3¢	$30	0xf6e108…
06-08 07:28:06	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	SELL	48	3¢	$2	0x7f4160…
06-08 06:40:52	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,800	0xc9178e…
06-08 04:44:10	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	BUY	1,000	3¢	$28	0x965f83…
06-08 04:41:21	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	5,000	95¢	$4,770	0x2c6428…
06-07 05:07:43	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	SELL	193	23¢	$44	0x09d950…
06-07 05:07:21	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	SELL	266	24¢	$64	0x199522…
06-07 04:54:48	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	SELL	441	25¢	$110	0x458c79…
06-07 04:54:27	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0x0f4953…
06-07 04:39:30	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	BUY	1,000	29¢	$290	0xc12125…
06-05 02:34:40	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Down	SELL	807	44¢	$356	0xd114da…
06-05 02:21:13	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	400	46¢	$184	0xb4800b…
06-05 02:21:04	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb10cb5…
06-05 02:20:54	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb22120…
06-05 02:19:49	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Down	BUY	397	46¢	$183	0x839b57…
06-03 03:26:36	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	SELL	188	30¢	$56	0x8c7007…
06-03 03:22:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1acf7b…
06-03 03:22:26	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xe4337d…
06-03 03:22:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	72	30¢	$22	0x3be743…
06-03 03:22:12	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	72	30¢	$22	0x3801ce…
06-03 03:22:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?	Down	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x1d84be…
06-02 15:05:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$6	0x0c0df3…
05-28 05:39:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	440	81¢	$356	0x1a7c25…
05-28 05:31:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	440	83¢	$365	0xfde620…
05-28 05:25:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,781	7¢	$125	0xc7c183…
05-28 05:25:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xfc8af0…
05-28 05:25:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	7¢	$140	0x6be10f…
05-28 05:25:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xcbae45…
05-26 06:02:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0xc1288d…
05-26 02:55:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0x98a694…
05-24 01:27:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	2,503	19¢	$465	0x5fd8e7…
05-24 01:26:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	497	22¢	$109	0x9c81b0…
05-24 01:26:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	3,000	22¢	$660	0xe1f76b…
05-24 01:11:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	32	31¢	$10	0xfe18a1…
05-24 01:11:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	63	31¢	$19	0xcac433…
05-24 01:10:44	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xaa8c61…
05-24 01:02:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xf78e70…
05-23 02:03:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	20,000	1¢	$280	0xa54016…
05-23 00:54:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	20,000	4¢	$740	0xda5a53…
05-22 23:42:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	3,000	84¢	$2,529	0xec3b73…
05-22 23:37:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	3,000	84¢	$2,526	0xa3a238…
05-22 23:35:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	21	86¢	$18	0xaac26d…
05-22 23:33:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xa0021e…
05-22 23:32:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$43	0x0900b8…
05-22 23:32:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$0	0xda44a2…
05-22 23:31:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	274	87¢	$238	0xd4e019…
05-22 23:30:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0xc36277…
05-22 23:28:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	1,600	87¢	$1,394	0xd5226d…
05-22 23:28:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,708	0x709f8c…
05-22 23:15:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	3,000	14¢	$424	0x7913ba…
05-22 23:13:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	3,000	17¢	$510	0x038bda…
05-22 05:47:44	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	SELL	67	39¢	$26	0x0a0e25…
05-22 05:29:32	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0x3128da…
05-22 05:26:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,967	3¢	$92	0x0cffe5…
05-22 05:26:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x98a60d…
05-22 05:20:10	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	MIBR	SELL	838	99¢	$829	0x1e2658…
05-22 05:20:10	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	MIBR	SELL	162	99¢	$161	0x040ff2…
05-22 05:19:28	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	MIBR	BUY	976	98¢	$957	0x9588d2…
05-22 05:19:26	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	MIBR	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xad6afa…
05-22 05:19:25	Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B	MIBR	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x58f9a1…
05-21 08:58:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,000	80¢	$3,200	0x3b1d31…
05-21 08:00:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	82¢	$1,640	0xa07394…
05-21 06:22:03	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	1,259	46¢	$578	0x83d602…
05-21 05:47:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	708	49¢	$347	0xda93e2…
05-21 05:47:31	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xd031a9…
05-21 05:47:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x8af556…
05-21 05:47:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x619edc…
05-21 05:47:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xa12064…
05-21 05:47:25	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x341206…
05-21 05:47:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xb0ccf9…
05-21 05:47:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x9d8172…
05-21 05:47:20	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xea8168…
05-21 05:46:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xf5b6d5…
05-21 05:43:43	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xad4c11…
05-21 05:41:30	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xbf824e…
05-21 05:35:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	588	49¢	$288	0x5f3d6b…
05-21 05:31:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x242ebf…
05-21 05:31:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0xfc260d…
05-21 05:31:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x1c82eb…
05-21 05:31:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0x1565f1…
05-21 05:31:53	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xb1e4d9…
05-21 05:08:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x9d69b4…
05-21 05:08:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xdd7682…
05-21 04:58:27	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	54	50¢	$27	0x760242…
05-21 04:43:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf919ed…
05-21 04:31:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9521ba…
05-21 04:31:00	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf0e124…
05-21 04:30:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	397	49¢	$195	0xc95118…
05-21 04:17:25	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	Up	BUY	687	50¢	$343	0x1b0f04…
05-21 04:08:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0xcf769f…
05-21 03:59:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,969	80¢	$1,575	0xbb83a3…
05-21 03:59:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x7f20f3…
05-21 03:56:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x288189…
05-21 03:49:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0xc7f093…
05-21 03:48:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xe2a429…