Guilty-Sphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.0%

Resolved

Trades

454

lifetime

Volume

$6.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 08-02 06:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

83% 14% $-18

Politics

16% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% 0% $-2

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in london on april 2 2026 12c	19	$788	450	366	+84	open	—	04-02 17:21
cs2 js1 ursa 2026 04 07	7	$499	500	493	+7	open	—	04-07 11:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$306	200	200	+0	open	—	03-31 20:41
spy up or down on april 20 2026	10	$264	200	200	+0	open	—	04-20 14:28
spx opens up or down on march 30 2026	13	$230	250	250	+0	open	—	03-29 17:49
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	5	$203	213	213	+0	open	—	04-30 14:54
ucl ata1 bay1 2026 03 10 bay1	2	$196	200	0	+200	open	—	03-10 20:43
highest temperature in nyc on march 29 2026 52 53f	28	$194	247	247	+0	open	—	03-29 14:23
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	7	$193	200	200	+0	Up	$-1	05-05 13:29
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	15	$188	140	140	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 12:38
highest temperature in nyc on april 14 2026 82 83f	14	$179	211	159	+51	open	—	04-14 20:13
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	6	$156	150	150	+0	open	—	04-12 14:24
wti up or down on april 21 2026	7	$131	111	111	+0	open	—	04-21 12:31
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	12	$120	100	100	+0	open	—	04-30 14:44
highest temperature in beijing on april 14 2026 21c	11	$107	163	161	+2	open	—	04-13 23:00
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	03-28 08:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	5	$97	100	100	+0	open	—	05-24 00:44
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	3	$91	100	100	+0	open	—	04-04 13:23
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	3	$90	50	50	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 13:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$90	91	0	+91	open	—	04-08 12:39
andrew tate posts february 20 february 27 100 129	10	$85	90	90	+0	open	—	02-25 16:50
spy up or down on april 23 2026	5	$80	100	100	+0	open	—	04-23 14:59
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 26?	7	$73	60	67	-7	open	—	04-26 12:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	3	$73	50	50	+0	open	—	05-23 23:49
wti up or down on april 22 2026	3	$71	100	100	+0	open	—	04-22 13:29
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	5	$67	60	60	+0	Yes	$-1	03-21 15:39
will trump say friend or ally 7 times during dinner with dutch royals	14	$65	57	57	+0	open	—	04-13 23:15
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	2	$64	50	50	+0	open	—	02-27 13:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$63	80	80	+0	open	—	04-17 13:18
highest temperature in helsinki on april 20 2026 13c	3	$62	50	50	+0	open	—	04-20 12:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 06:36:06	StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x37bdcb…
06-14 15:41:00	will trump speak to elon musk in june	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x37bc52…
06-14 15:27:09	will trump meet with mohammed bin salman in june 2026	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x9503d4…
06-14 15:21:52	will trump speak to elon musk in june	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xc66369…
06-14 14:51:01	will trump meet with mohammed bin salman in june 2026	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa48baf…
06-14 14:33:12	will trump speak to elon musk in june	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xc0cabd…
06-14 14:22:52	will trump speak to elon musk in june	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x21c40a…
06-14 13:30:57	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x8e36cf…
06-14 13:22:33	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x257511…
06-14 12:25:36	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x8dd3a1…
06-14 12:23:40	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x0405a6…
05-31 12:26:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xafe10a…
05-30 14:39:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xd23951…
05-30 12:56:10	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xcc6ae6…
05-30 12:55:35	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	SELL	13	21¢	$3	0xb3dbed…
05-30 12:55:10	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x174c58…
05-30 12:09:49	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xda08d1…
05-30 12:07:24	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x6086f0…
05-30 12:06:43	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xd7953d…
05-30 12:06:42	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xfdaae5…
05-30 11:23:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x8656d9…
05-30 10:53:17	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x07ccb1…
05-30 10:48:02	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x25bf59…
05-30 10:44:25	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xc7e014…
05-30 10:32:34	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xbd982f…
05-29 21:10:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x7ab6da…
05-29 02:24:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x64b913…
05-24 00:44:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	42	64¢	$27	0xa7c346…
05-24 00:43:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x565575…
05-24 00:10:32	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xa53503…
05-23 23:59:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x7630e0…
05-23 23:57:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xe29965…
05-23 23:49:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	35	72¢	$25	0xdb281e…
05-23 23:44:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0xb8c48a…
05-23 23:41:40	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x9bdba9…
05-23 23:41:01	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x9d62f9…
05-23 12:04:03	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x5ae06e…
05-23 11:30:55	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xd508a9…
05-21 15:53:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x8c8d62…
05-11 12:38:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xb484fd…
05-11 12:38:55	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xec3f13…
05-11 12:38:55	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x9fd7a0…
05-11 12:38:55	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x36cf2d…
05-11 12:38:53	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x9d3956…
05-11 12:38:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xbf440b…
05-11 12:38:51	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	18	90¢	$16	0x9f5f92…
05-11 12:38:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0xa70026…
05-11 12:38:01	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	34	10¢	$3	0x8ad0dc…
05-11 12:34:17	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x15ccb8…
05-11 12:26:12	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x463052…
05-11 12:18:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x91c4e6…
05-11 12:17:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xa95264…
05-11 12:15:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0x8b3180…
05-11 12:15:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0xb2e9e3…
05-11 12:11:37	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	11	22¢	$2	0xcf1d1b…
05-11 12:11:32	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xd26df3…
05-11 11:34:34	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x94d57c…
05-11 11:34:19	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x52b414…
05-11 11:34:03	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x0960c4…
05-11 11:33:51	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x77e537…
05-11 11:32:51	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0xa95f18…
05-05 22:18:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x0f699b…
05-05 13:29:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	94	84¢	$79	0xf6c30c…
05-05 13:27:20	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xfdb950…
05-05 13:25:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x0ddb1c…
05-05 13:23:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xd8808f…
05-05 13:21:14	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	55	12¢	$7	0x0fff7a…
05-05 13:15:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	45	12¢	$5	0xec72d7…
05-05 13:09:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0xb78dde…
05-05 13:09:28	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	57	12¢	$7	0x6bac59…
05-05 13:04:12	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x3aab0c…
05-05 13:01:26	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x755671…
05-02 14:23:38	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x76910e…
05-02 12:51:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xa25556…
05-02 12:48:28	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x9e141d…
05-02 12:40:24	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x9a4012…
04-30 14:54:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xc06cde…
04-30 14:44:06	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xe72a1b…
04-30 14:44:02	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	16	60¢	$9	0x31ed5b…
04-30 14:43:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	21	60¢	$12	0xf41377…
04-30 14:43:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	12	60¢	$7	0x340ad7…
04-30 14:43:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x1a693d…
04-30 14:43:26	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	29	60¢	$17	0x974217…
04-30 14:42:22	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xcb595a…
04-30 14:40:18	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	1	56¢	$0	0x1dd181…
04-30 14:36:36	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x8e8f63…
04-30 14:34:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x724ee7…
04-30 14:34:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x4d9e80…
04-30 14:34:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0x34ba69…
04-30 14:34:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	43	60¢	$26	0xa31491…
04-30 11:07:14	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	113	21¢	$24	0xce6a25…
04-30 11:06:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xa044f1…
04-30 11:04:24	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x832d34…
04-28 21:41:20	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xd2e1c7…
04-28 21:38:04	James Comey arrested by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x699399…
04-26 16:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	No	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0x34330e…
04-26 16:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc5e2dc…
04-26 14:55:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf9a313…
04-26 14:38:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0xc567d3…
04-26 13:42:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x212608…