Menacing-Bonfire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$305

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-22 07:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

64% — —

Other

17% — —

Crypto

16% 44% +$5

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$170	167	167	+0	open	—	04-08 19:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$22	34	34	+0	open	—	04-20 14:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$12	38	38	+0	open	—	04-20 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	Up	+$9	05-05 11:07
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	1	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	04-15 20:02
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 8 2026	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	04-08 19:46
btc updown 5m 1781868600	1	$5	500	0	+500	open	—	06-19 11:35
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$5	120	0	+120	open	—	04-22 16:40
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	1	$5	32	0	+32	open	—	04-07 10:56
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	04-12 18:50
btc updown 5m 1782112500	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	06-22 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Down	+$2	05-12 12:55
nba phx okc 2026 04 22	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-22 21:18
btc updown 5m 1775558700	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-07 10:49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-20 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 17:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-22 16:37
btc updown 5m 1776251700	2	$2	105	0	+105	open	—	04-15 11:20
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	1	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	04-20 14:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$2	102	0	+102	Up	$-2	05-11 09:51
btc updown 5m 1776861900	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-22 12:49
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$2	9	9	+0	open	—	04-22 16:37
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$1	2	2	+0	open	—	04-22 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$1	9	0	+9	Up	$-1	05-05 18:49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$1	3	3	+0	open	—	04-20 14:46
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	1	$1	424	0	+424	open	—	04-08 20:06
btc updown 5m 1775729700	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	04-09 10:19
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	1	$1	500	0	+500	open	—	04-08 20:05
btc updown 5m 1776695400	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	04-20 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$1	100	0	+100	Down	$-1	05-08 13:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 07:15:29	btc updown 5m 1782112500	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xdfe626…
06-19 11:35:14	btc updown 5m 1781868600	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x728b6f…
05-12 12:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xdcd43b…
05-11 17:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xed9996…
05-11 17:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3c7e82…
05-11 17:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x745d09…
05-11 11:41:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd4d81b…
05-11 09:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5fd429…
05-11 09:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9b8963…
05-08 13:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x4522c7…
05-08 13:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa80fe4…
05-05 18:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xf48323…
05-05 11:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x17e0ac…
04-22 21:19:06	nhl dal min 2026 04 22	Wild	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0003a0…
04-22 21:18:58	nba phx okc 2026 04 22	Thunder	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x063b26…
04-22 21:18:46	nba orl det 2026 04 22	Pistons	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdccb55…
04-22 16:40:50	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	94	4¢	$4	0x7b1525…
04-22 16:40:30	Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6a94dd…
04-22 16:40:06	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3ba1b8…
04-22 16:37:26	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xa7e55e…
04-22 16:37:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xbf4d4a…
04-22 16:37:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x113f57…
04-22 12:49:38	btc updown 5m 1776861900	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe4ca33…
04-22 12:49:04	btc updown 5m 1776861900	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd906a0…
04-20 14:46:56	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x250789…
04-20 14:40:56	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	19¢	$7	0xdfd6f7…
04-20 14:36:02	btc updown 5m 1776695700	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x014148…
04-20 14:34:52	btc updown 5m 1776695400	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x5bd6c1…
04-20 14:33:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa04736…
04-20 14:32:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xe82d05…
04-20 14:32:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xca1a9e…
04-20 14:29:18	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0x77040f…
04-20 14:29:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	34	30¢	$10	0x455488…
04-15 20:02:58	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x5eaae8…
04-15 20:02:10	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 draw	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xdc0101…
04-15 12:36:34	btc updown 5m 1776256500	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa0b39d…
04-15 11:20:08	btc updown 5m 1776251700	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x04cf64…
04-15 11:17:10	btc updown 5m 1776251700	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1430b5…
04-13 20:45:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x4f00d8…
04-12 18:50:29	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xfbace9…
04-11 21:54:03	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8969f0…
04-11 18:09:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0x0ef9d5…
04-10 04:56:17	btc updown 5m 1775796900	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7fcb68…
04-09 10:19:47	btc updown 5m 1775729700	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1f296b…
04-08 20:10:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x405987…
04-08 20:06:41	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	BUY	424	0¢	$1	0xe25541…
04-08 20:05:35	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe25152…
04-08 19:46:55	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 8 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8e210b…
04-08 19:43:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	167	99¢	$165	0xf58010…
04-08 05:37:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x8af451…
04-08 05:36:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x350700…
04-07 16:11:29	btc updown 5m 1775578200	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x9894e9…
04-07 16:10:53	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x3c3183…
04-07 16:10:41	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xf26d9b…
04-07 13:18:49	btc updown 5m 1775567700	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1bb996…
04-07 10:58:09	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa1e957…
04-07 10:56:57	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0x920ee1…
04-07 10:49:31	btc updown 5m 1775558700	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x841b26…
04-07 10:48:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xe14df1…