Guilty-Ebook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$118

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-24 18:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

62% 0% $-3

Crypto

19% — —

Politics

18% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	4	$57	464	0	+464	open	—	05-19 17:21
btc updown 5m 1775602200	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	04-07 22:55
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$8	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 22:42
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	5	$5	65	65	+0	open	—	04-07 22:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$4	9	9	+0	open	—	04-14 22:28
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	04-15 19:52
epl bou ars 2026 01 03 ars	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	01-03 20:05
btc updown 5m 1780861200	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	06-07 19:43
spx up or down on january 20 2026	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	01-20 21:23
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 11?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Down	$-2	05-10 17:50
btc updown 5m 1780860900	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-07 19:39
Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	2	$2	7	7	+0	open	—	01-06 17:52
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	2	$1	3	3	+0	open	—	01-15 08:00
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	05-28 21:24
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	02-04 23:50
btc updown 5m 1782324300	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	06-24 18:07
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	01-14 21:18
btc updown 5m 1780860300	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	06-07 19:29
will the us next strike iran on january 18 2026 et 229	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	01-14 21:19
Fermín Lopez: Anytime Goalscorer	1	$1	3	0	+3	No	$-1	05-10 18:11
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	04-14 22:28
btc updown 5m 1776438000	1	$1	4	0	+4	open	—	04-17 15:02
btc updown 5m 1782324600	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	06-24 18:10
will the us next strike iran on january 17 2026 et 219	1	$1	9	0	+9	open	—	01-14 21:19
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$1	17	0	+17	open	—	04-22 19:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 18:10:31	btc updown 5m 1782324600	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x58f390…
06-24 18:07:14	btc updown 5m 1782324300	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xfee8a2…
06-07 19:43:12	btc updown 5m 1780861200	Down	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xef18fb…
06-07 19:41:19	btc updown 5m 1780861200	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x11b54e…
06-07 19:39:09	btc updown 5m 1780860900	Down	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc7096e…
06-07 19:38:45	btc updown 5m 1780860900	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc1e423…
06-07 19:29:24	btc updown 5m 1780860300	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6b2b58…
05-28 21:24:02	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x89dfc7…
05-19 17:21:49	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	No	BUY	410	12¢	$50	0x6d74b6…
05-19 16:44:13	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	No	BUY	31	13¢	$4	0x83d5be…
05-19 16:25:07	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4fcae1…
05-19 16:22:54	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x87c2c1…
05-10 18:11:20	Fermín Lopez: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x9e98cc…
05-10 17:50:59	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd97296…
04-22 19:59:42	Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf91d13…
04-17 15:02:34	btc updown 5m 1776438000	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6c5234…
04-15 19:52:18	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xc8a3a0…
04-15 18:08:38	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6cceb2…
04-14 22:28:58	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xef580c…
04-14 22:28:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0x15749e…
04-08 07:29:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd72327…
04-07 22:55:19	btc updown 5m 1775602200	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xbeb465…
04-07 22:50:39	btc updown 5m 1775602200	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf840c8…
04-07 22:45:33	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xe34de9…
04-07 22:45:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xfa9646…
04-07 22:42:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x97310e…
04-06 09:31:43	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb1cd67…
04-06 09:31:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	Yes	SELL	45	5¢	$2	0x5d1281…
04-05 15:11:11	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x31d45c…
04-05 15:06:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa1a1e2…
02-04 23:50:39	us strikes iran by february 8 2026	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd103b3…
01-20 21:23:50	spx up or down on january 20 2026	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5a510c…
01-18 01:03:58	spx up or down on january 20 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xec6c9a…
01-15 08:00:42	Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x0c8c57…
01-14 21:19:44	will the us next strike iran on january 17 2026 et 219	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x524ef5…
01-14 21:19:10	will the us next strike iran on january 18 2026 et 229	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4b6e5b…
01-14 21:18:06	us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8e7b45…
01-08 22:12:58	Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfe0c8e…
01-06 17:52:23	Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x4ef0e1…
01-06 08:18:07	Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdef954…
01-03 20:05:13	epl bou ars 2026 01 03 ars	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb52c04…
01-03 18:26:45	epl bou ars 2026 01 03 ars	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xccfc59…