Formal-Kneejerk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$844

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 05-09 07:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 68% $-5

Politics

1% 0% $-11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$62	95	0	+95	open	—	04-25 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	1	$60	81	0	+81	Up	$-60	05-09 07:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	1	$53	63	0	+63	open	—	04-25 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$50	56	0	+56	Down	+$6	05-09 07:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	1	$50	53	0	+53	Up	+$3	05-09 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	1	$50	54	0	+54	Down	+$4	05-09 07:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	2	$49	59	0	+59	open	—	04-25 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$48	63	0	+63	Up	+$15	05-07 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$40	44	0	+44	Up	+$4	05-07 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$40	43	0	+43	Up	+$3	05-06 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$26	72	0	+72	open	—	04-29 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$21	77	0	+77	Down	+$6	05-05 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$21	61	0	+61	Up	+$6	05-05 18:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$21	75	0	+75	Up	+$4	05-05 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	04-29 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	04-29 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$20	42	0	+42	Down	+$5	05-05 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$15	18	0	+18	Up	$-4	05-05 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	3	$12	16	8	+8	Up	+$0	05-05 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	2	$12	22	0	+22	open	—	04-29 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$12	61	0	+61	open	—	04-29 09:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$11	10,500	0	+10,500	Yes	$-11	05-09 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	1	$11	14	0	+14	open	—	04-25 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	2	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	04-29 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	1	$10	23	0	+23	Down	+$13	05-05 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Down	+$1	05-05 17:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	04-25 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	04-25 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-29 09:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-25 19:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 07:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x529cee…
05-09 07:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	81	74¢	$60	0x3cb22a…
05-09 07:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xe85b86…
05-09 07:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x83a686…
05-09 07:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xe83c8d…
05-09 07:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xfeff94…
05-09 07:15:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xcd830d…
05-09 07:11:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x4a7bdf…
05-07 18:39:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	63	76¢	$48	0x89f4ac…
05-07 18:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5c4b28…
05-07 18:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x046e19…
05-06 17:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0x9a28ce…
05-05 18:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdeda9c…
05-05 18:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x5a151b…
05-05 18:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe4dbd8…
05-05 18:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x56b212…
05-05 18:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x62dfa2…
05-05 18:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x05610a…
05-05 18:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x88e9e8…
05-05 17:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0xf73f21…
05-05 17:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x6f36aa…
05-05 17:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x06ed22…
05-05 17:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x3ba0c7…
05-05 17:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x5e5590…
05-05 17:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x783035…
05-05 17:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xe92928…
05-05 17:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x5c0d76…
05-05 17:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa73166…
05-05 17:18:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x3aea40…
05-05 17:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x60f3e5…
05-05 17:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd01314…
04-29 09:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x7df924…
04-29 09:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3909b6…
04-29 09:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdd6410…
04-29 09:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa12040…
04-29 09:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x206b9f…
04-29 09:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2171b2…
04-29 09:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xe27ff8…
04-29 08:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4fbee3…
04-29 08:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x719aef…
04-29 08:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9fa456…
04-29 08:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xacf522…
04-29 08:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd58b5f…
04-29 08:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x3e9202…
04-29 08:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x79bf76…
04-29 08:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x9be696…
04-29 08:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb74f07…
04-29 08:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xbc4681…
04-29 08:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	57	28¢	$16	0x8fa584…
04-29 08:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x20117f…
04-25 21:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	95	66¢	$62	0xd46baf…
04-25 21:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	63	83¢	$53	0x4970dc…
04-25 21:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	53	91¢	$48	0x7bd85d…
04-25 21:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x8c1d18…
04-25 21:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x7624d5…
04-25 20:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xedc5d2…
04-25 20:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x73cad9…
04-25 20:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe0d689…
04-25 20:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x2a5456…
04-25 20:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x900908…
04-25 20:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x3f88c4…
04-25 20:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x23a54e…
04-25 19:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x263fe6…