Realized P&L
-$208
Unrealized P&L
+$2.14K
Hit rate
74.1%
Resolved
14
Trades
2,660
lifetime
Volume
$202.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$76
Open exposure
$93.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-25
last 10-26 18:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
66% 50% -$5,840
Other
29% 100% +$1,647
Sports
2% 100% +$3,985
Tech
2% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
31 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +19,786 $12,427 70¢ $13.8K +$1,324 10-26 15:31
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +14,045 $9,245 64¢ $9.1K -$186 10-25 16:10
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +9,882 $6,449 64¢ $6.4K -$75 10-23 02:45
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +8,614 $4,943 68¢ $5.9K +$958 10-25 16:34
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +5,996 $4,784 86¢ $5.2K +$403 10-16 20:19
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +4,716 $4,020 96¢ $4.5K +$484 10-20 15:07
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +4,237 $3,369 94¢ $4.0K +$614 10-16 18:02
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +5,226 $3,733 72¢ $3.8K +$56 10-22 20:38
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +4,164 $3,235 86¢ $3.6K +$367 10-13 22:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? Yes +6,959 $1,362 51¢ $3.5K +$2,187 10-26 16:11
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +5,365 $3,418 64¢ $3.4K +$15 10-26 15:55
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,229 $5,555 60¢ $3.2K -$2,392 10-22 17:04
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +3,546 $2,807 86¢ $3.1K +$260 10-23 13:08
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +8,192 $5,187 30¢ $2.5K -$2,688 10-24 20:29
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? No +2,342 $1,311 80¢ $1.9K +$574 10-23 04:53
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +1,851 $1,713 96¢ $1.8K +$55 10-21 17:24
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +2,833 $2,211 62¢ $1.8K -$455 10-23 21:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,867 $1,290 92¢ $1.7K +$437 10-26 17:26
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,481 $1,654 68¢ $1.7K +$33 10-25 02:00
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +2,608 $1,759 64¢ $1.7K -$85 10-25 17:09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +2,172 $1,526 74¢ $1.6K +$92 10-23 04:55
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,640 $1,622 59¢ $1.6K -$64 10-26 17:13
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,019 $1,266 64¢ $1.3K +$36 10-24 16:00
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +1,562 $1,244 70¢ $1.1K -$151 10-21 22:18
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +1,627 $1,052 65¢ $1.1K +$8 10-24 07:12
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,498 $1,063 68¢ $1.0K -$52 10-24 21:55
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +970 $620 99¢ $958 +$337 10-26 04:46
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,135 $818 72¢ $823 +$5 10-26 08:47
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +1,147 $782 68¢ $786 +$4 10-25 01:59
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +858 $729 90¢ $768 +$39 10-13 15:03