Unsteady-Incident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

97.1%

Resolved

Trades

263

lifetime

Volume

$16.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-03 09:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

65% 100% +$0

Politics

19% — —

Other

14% 100% +$2

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes		+16	$2	78¢	$13	+$11	07-03 06:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.4K	740	940	-200	open	—	05-28 18:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	15	$1.1K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-24 17:08
bitcoin above 94k on january 25	1	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	01-25 11:35
bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	3	$299	150	150	+0	open	—	07-03 09:29
bitcoin above 76k on february 12	1	$235	235	0	+235	open	—	02-12 08:20
bitcoin above 74k on february 8	1	$235	235	0	+235	open	—	02-08 16:58
bitcoin above 76k on february 10	1	$215	215	0	+215	open	—	02-10 09:22
spx up or down on june 16 2026	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-16 07:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$208	130	80	+50	open	—	05-29 14:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$207	220	220	+0	open	—	06-15 11:03
bitcoin above 70k on february 18	1	$205	205	0	+205	open	—	02-18 16:15
bitcoin above 88k on january 31	1	$205	205	0	+205	open	—	01-31 17:49
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$203	120	120	+0	open	—	06-12 15:44
bitcoin above 88k on january 15	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-15 09:06
bitcoin above 88k on january 18	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-18 05:04
bitcoin above 76k on february 5	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	02-05 16:00
bitcoin above 86k on january 11	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-11 10:53
bitcoin above 86k on february 1	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	02-01 09:54
bitcoin above 82k on february 4	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	02-04 17:44
bitcoin above 94k on january 24	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-24 09:45
bitcoin above 88k on january 9	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-09 19:09
bitcoin above 96k on january 22	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-22 16:50
bitcoin above 84k on january 23	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-23 15:06
bitcoin above 88k on january 6	1	$199	200	0	+200	open	—	01-06 09:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	05-29 13:57
bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	06-10 17:47
bitcoin above 94k on january 12	3	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	01-12 09:26
spx up or down on june 8 2026	3	$195	100	100	+0	open	—	06-08 19:58
bitcoin above 76k on february 14	1	$195	195	0	+195	open	—	02-13 09:51
bitcoin above 86k on january 10	3	$189	189	0	+189	open	—	01-10 18:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 09:29:02	bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x047cf2…
07-03 09:09:34	bitcoin above 68k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x29cb42…
07-03 06:03:01	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	75	82¢	$61	0xd2fbc0…
07-02 13:20:26	bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	141	100¢	$140	0x109425…
07-02 09:07:04	bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf0097d…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa6501f…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x79a916…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4ca4d1…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x448cc8…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2c0474…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x03beaf…
06-30 17:15:56	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x95d723…
06-29 10:09:02	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xaf789a…
06-29 06:40:55	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x612095…
06-27 09:06:01	bitcoin above 62k on june 27 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x23824c…
06-21 21:17:29	bitcoin above 70k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x78a831…
06-18 10:02:47	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0xc22243…
06-18 09:59:07	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x06664b…
06-18 09:58:04	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xcdd14f…
06-18 07:25:17	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x5f0ebd…
06-18 07:24:17	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	76	37¢	$28	0xb96b52…
06-18 07:22:38	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	15	37¢	$5	0xff313c…
06-18 07:22:35	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	110	37¢	$41	0xbabe02…
06-17 12:10:11	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xfcbbed…
06-16 07:57:57	spx up or down on june 16 2026	Up	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0x7b3ebf…
06-16 07:45:46	spx up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x673ec7…
06-15 12:08:00	bitcoin above 70k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xf7f967…
06-15 11:31:52	bitcoin above 70k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x474709…
06-15 11:28:28	bitcoin above 70k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x520b06…
06-15 11:03:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	195	47¢	$92	0xfb422a…
06-15 10:58:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	25	47¢	$12	0xc2541e…
06-15 09:33:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	220	47¢	$103	0x88cbf9…
06-13 08:03:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	145	50¢	$72	0xb5c7b5…
06-13 08:01:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	145	50¢	$72	0xe79301…
06-12 15:44:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	120	85¢	$102	0xfe1a5d…
06-12 15:34:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0xb255cc…
06-11 01:33:24	bitcoin above 68k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x19293b…
06-10 17:47:43	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xecd291…
06-09 18:33:37	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x6d95c5…
06-08 19:58:03	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Up	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x932078…
06-08 17:00:21	spy closes above 745 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x3040ac…
06-08 16:28:49	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xa3138e…
06-08 16:28:49	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x967c2d…
06-06 08:29:31	bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbfb822…
06-05 15:15:10	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x01bb34…
06-05 08:34:01	bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xf18b11…
06-04 21:10:40	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x766fd0…
06-04 21:07:00	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x677755…
06-04 14:45:51	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xd3e961…
06-02 10:05:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x91adf5…
06-02 05:53:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x3c76a2…
05-31 19:06:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xd3e853…
05-31 18:38:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x0b34a9…
05-31 18:37:13	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	67¢	$21	0xf00b85…
05-31 10:45:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$6	0x33d2b8…
05-31 10:33:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x8bcb4a…
05-29 14:02:26	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x784451…
05-29 14:01:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc7b8c8…
05-29 13:59:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd2510d…
05-29 13:57:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x7d0751…
05-28 18:33:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x1b6d5a…
05-28 18:31:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	88¢	$194	0xc381e5…
05-28 16:21:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	87¢	$191	0x712a19…
05-28 04:40:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	90¢	$198	0x18a0a3…
05-27 19:52:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x6721c3…
05-27 17:27:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x451505…
05-26 20:39:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	235	76¢	$178	0x6972dc…
05-26 20:37:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	76¢	$11	0x28806f…
05-26 20:26:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x98d71c…
05-26 18:06:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	75¢	$188	0x9d4a87…
05-26 17:00:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	76¢	$190	0x760973…
05-26 15:59:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xbb28d0…
05-24 17:29:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x67c7ce…
05-24 17:13:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x457cf8…
05-24 17:08:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xf66c11…
05-24 17:02:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xfbc872…
05-24 12:18:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	111	67¢	$74	0x577203…
05-24 12:18:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$2	0xdac75c…
05-24 12:17:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x7b907d…
05-24 12:16:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x0ec795…
05-24 12:15:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	65	67¢	$43	0x8b70b9…
05-24 12:15:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x85e34f…
05-24 12:13:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0x57eba7…
05-24 12:11:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x4568ec…
05-24 12:08:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xc7a125…
05-24 11:49:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x4fbdd7…
05-24 11:44:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x9ecf08…
05-24 11:34:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x694027…
05-24 11:33:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x17f10c…
05-22 11:50:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0xa0dcdc…
05-21 11:35:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x09fcc6…
05-21 07:45:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?	Down	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x891830…
05-21 07:42:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	34	71¢	$24	0x8c153a…
05-21 07:28:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	66	71¢	$47	0x4ed330…
05-20 19:14:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x307ef7…
05-20 11:34:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9b0f23…
05-19 23:51:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x1e11ac…
05-09 20:33:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xfa7af2…
05-09 10:19:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	12¢	$20	0xfa63aa…
05-09 10:19:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	12¢	$24	0xf547c0…