Unsteady-Incident — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.1%

Resolved

Trades

296

lifetime

Volume

$19.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-26 06:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 100% +$0

Politics

17% — —

Other

12% 100% +$2

Sports

3% 0% —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.4K	740	940	-200	open	—	05-28 18:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	15	$1.1K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-24 17:08
bitcoin above 66k on july 7 2026	2	$597	300	300	+0	open	—	07-07 15:18
will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	4	$438	300	300	+0	open	—	07-06 02:33
bitcoin above 94k on january 25	1	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	01-25 11:35
bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	3	$299	150	150	+0	open	—	07-03 09:29
bitcoin above 72k on july 22 2026	2	$280	280	0	+280	open	—	07-21 20:12
bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	5	$269	270	0	+270	open	—	07-12 09:06
bitcoin above 68k on july 25 2026	2	$250	250	0	+250	open	—	07-24 19:50
bitcoin above 74k on february 8	1	$235	235	0	+235	open	—	02-08 16:58
bitcoin above 76k on february 12	1	$235	235	0	+235	open	—	02-12 08:20
will bitcoin reach 72k july 13 19 2026	1	$230	230	0	+230	open	—	07-19 09:34
bitcoin above 76k on february 10	1	$215	215	0	+215	open	—	02-10 09:22
spx up or down on june 16 2026	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-16 07:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$208	130	80	+50	open	—	05-29 14:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$207	220	220	+0	open	—	06-15 11:03
bitcoin above 70k on february 18	1	$205	205	0	+205	open	—	02-18 16:15
bitcoin above 88k on january 31	1	$205	205	0	+205	open	—	01-31 17:49
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$203	120	120	+0	open	—	06-12 15:44
bitcoin above 70k on july 16 2026	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	07-15 20:59
bitcoin above 88k on january 9	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-09 19:09
bitcoin above 86k on february 1	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	02-01 09:54
bitcoin above 88k on january 18	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-18 05:04
bitcoin above 76k on february 5	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	02-05 16:00
bitcoin above 70k on july 17 2026	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	07-16 22:45
bitcoin above 88k on january 15	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-15 09:06
bitcoin above 96k on january 22	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-22 16:50
bitcoin above 94k on january 24	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-24 09:45
bitcoin above 70k on july 8 2026	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	07-07 15:26
bitcoin above 82k on february 4	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	02-04 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 06:41:43	bitcoin above 66k on july 26 2026	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc05560…
07-24 19:50:19	bitcoin above 68k on july 25 2026	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x927e2f…
07-24 19:45:06	bitcoin above 68k on july 25 2026	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0xc7b382…
07-24 18:32:00	bitcoin above 66k on july 25 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xfe981e…
07-21 20:12:07	bitcoin above 72k on july 22 2026	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x4af4eb…
07-21 19:54:18	bitcoin above 72k on july 22 2026	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x839022…
07-21 17:59:16	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x3ceb7e…
07-20 19:12:19	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0e992b…
07-19 09:34:24	will bitcoin reach 72k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	230	100¢	$230	0xd84a04…
07-17 18:53:48	will pam bondi attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357122	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x76ca82…
07-17 10:44:34	will pam bondi attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357122	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xc7a735…
07-16 22:45:23	bitcoin above 70k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x3a81dc…
07-15 20:59:59	bitcoin above 70k on july 16 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x3e72bf…
07-14 10:45:13	bitcoin above 66k on july 14 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xe43486…
07-13 15:05:44	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x754ed4…
07-12 09:06:47	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	184	100¢	$183	0xb6f798…
07-12 08:08:56	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x60832c…
07-12 07:27:22	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x51b0e3…
07-12 07:27:22	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2471e6…
07-12 07:27:20	bitcoin above 68k on july 13 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x76dce8…
07-08 14:37:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3174cc…
07-07 15:26:05	bitcoin above 70k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x46181b…
07-07 15:24:38	bitcoin above 68k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0c5ac3…
07-07 15:19:43	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x5f6447…
07-07 15:18:50	bitcoin above 66k on july 7 2026	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xa19ef8…
07-06 14:36:58	bitcoin above 66k on july 7 2026	No	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x49e852…
07-06 02:33:46	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	SELL	167	75¢	$125	0xdbc9be…
07-06 02:33:32	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	SELL	33	75¢	$25	0xc22477…
07-06 01:24:53	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x224f0e…
07-05 17:30:08	will the announcers say var during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113094	Yes	BUY	300	71¢	$213	0x9e4122…
07-05 17:10:08	will the announcers say upset during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113093	Yes	SELL	17	57¢	$10	0xaa3668…
07-05 17:04:41	will the announcers say upset during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113093	Yes	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x36ae3d…
07-05 17:00:44	will the announcers say upset during the mexico vs england fifa world cup match 20260705031113093	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0xf7feab…
07-03 09:29:02	bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x047cf2…
07-03 09:09:34	bitcoin above 68k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x29cb42…
07-03 06:03:01	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	75	82¢	$61	0xd2fbc0…
07-02 13:20:26	bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	141	100¢	$140	0x109425…
07-02 09:07:04	bitcoin above 70k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf0097d…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa6501f…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x79a916…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4ca4d1…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x448cc8…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2c0474…
07-01 06:22:08	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x03beaf…
06-30 17:15:56	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x95d723…
06-29 10:09:02	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xaf789a…
06-29 06:40:55	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x612095…
06-27 09:06:01	bitcoin above 62k on june 27 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x23824c…
06-21 21:17:29	bitcoin above 70k on june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x78a831…
06-18 10:02:47	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0xc22243…
06-18 09:59:07	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x06664b…
06-18 09:58:04	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xcdd14f…
06-18 07:25:17	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x5f0ebd…
06-18 07:24:17	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	76	37¢	$28	0xb96b52…
06-18 07:22:38	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	15	37¢	$5	0xff313c…
06-18 07:22:35	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Up	BUY	110	37¢	$41	0xbabe02…
06-17 12:10:11	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xfcbbed…
06-16 07:57:57	spx up or down on june 16 2026	Up	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0x7b3ebf…
06-16 07:45:46	spx up or down on june 16 2026	Up	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x673ec7…
06-15 12:08:00	bitcoin above 70k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xf7f967…
06-15 11:31:52	bitcoin above 70k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x474709…
06-15 11:28:28	bitcoin above 70k on june 15 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x520b06…
06-15 11:03:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	195	47¢	$92	0xfb422a…
06-15 10:58:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	25	47¢	$12	0xc2541e…
06-15 09:33:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	220	47¢	$103	0x88cbf9…
06-13 08:03:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	145	50¢	$72	0xb5c7b5…
06-13 08:01:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	145	50¢	$72	0xe79301…
06-12 15:44:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	120	85¢	$102	0xfe1a5d…
06-12 15:34:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0xb255cc…
06-11 01:33:24	bitcoin above 68k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x19293b…
06-10 17:47:43	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xecd291…
06-09 18:33:37	bitcoin above 66k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x6d95c5…
06-08 19:58:03	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Up	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x932078…
06-08 17:00:21	spy closes above 745 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x3040ac…
06-08 16:28:49	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xa3138e…
06-08 16:28:49	spx up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x967c2d…
06-06 08:29:31	bitcoin above 66k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbfb822…
06-05 15:15:10	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x01bb34…
06-05 08:34:01	bitcoin above 68k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xf18b11…
06-04 21:10:40	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x766fd0…
06-04 21:07:00	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x677755…
06-04 14:45:51	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xd3e961…
06-02 10:05:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x91adf5…
06-02 05:53:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x3c76a2…
05-31 19:06:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xd3e853…
05-31 18:38:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x0b34a9…
05-31 18:37:13	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	31	67¢	$21	0xf00b85…
05-31 10:45:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$6	0x33d2b8…
05-31 10:33:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x8bcb4a…
05-29 14:02:26	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x784451…
05-29 14:01:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc7b8c8…
05-29 13:59:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd2510d…
05-29 13:57:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x7d0751…
05-28 18:33:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x1b6d5a…
05-28 18:31:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	88¢	$194	0xc381e5…
05-28 16:21:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	87¢	$191	0x712a19…
05-28 04:40:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	220	90¢	$198	0x18a0a3…
05-27 19:52:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x6721c3…
05-27 17:27:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x451505…
05-26 20:39:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	235	76¢	$178	0x6972dc…