Far-Flung-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$159

Unrealized P&L

+$343

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved

Trades

503

lifetime

Volume

$101.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$201

Open exposure

$1.26K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-14

last 06-14 21:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

65% 50% +$74

Other

33% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$85

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No		+1,320	$915	95¢	$1.3K	+$343	06-14 20:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	16	$10.0K	6,221	6,221	+0	open	—	06-01 11:01
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	9	$4.9K	3,115	3,115	+0	open	—	03-30 20:52
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	10	$4.2K	3,349	2,028	+1,320	open	—	06-14 20:28
will mrbeast hit 474 million subscribers by march 31 977 964	15	$4.1K	2,132	2,132	+0	open	—	03-31 12:44
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	15	$4.0K	2,980	2,980	+0	open	—	04-04 17:42
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	6	$3.9K	2,151	2,151	+0	open	—	03-28 15:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$3.3K	2,004	2,004	+0	open	—	03-30 01:43
israel closes its airspace by june 13	9	$3.1K	2,054	1,149	+905	open	—	06-13 14:03
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 115 139	10	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-18 07:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	9	$2.5K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	04-06 20:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$2.5K	1,750	1,870	-120	open	—	06-14 21:23
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	31	$2.4K	2,974	2,974	+0	open	—	03-12 08:05
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 400 419	11	$2.0K	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	03-13 12:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$2.0K	2,100	0	+2,100	No	+$84	05-07 22:10
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	13	$2.0K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-19 17:34
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	10	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	06-11 18:03
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-16 05:09
israel closes its airspace by june 8	3	$1.9K	977	977	+0	open	—	06-08 17:29
israel closes its airspace by june 11	2	$1.9K	1,037	1,037	+0	open	—	06-10 22:29
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	2	$1.8K	970	970	+0	open	—	04-16 05:53
israel closes its airspace by june 10	2	$1.8K	942	942	+0	open	—	06-11 05:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$1.8K	1,004	1,004	+0	open	—	04-07 20:04
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	9	$1.8K	1,005	1,005	+0	open	—	03-01 01:23
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	4	$1.7K	888	888	+0	open	—	03-07 13:42
khamenei seen in public by february 28 888 166	10	$1.6K	850	850	+0	open	—	02-28 19:44
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	3	$1.6K	1,130	1,030	+100	open	—	03-07 11:37
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 140 164	11	$1.6K	843	843	+0	open	—	03-13 22:24
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	12	$1.5K	1,406	1,406	+0	open	—	06-07 19:25
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	3	$1.4K	810	810	+0	open	—	02-28 06:58
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-11 19:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 21:23:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,870	51¢	$955	0x355563…
06-14 20:28:06	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	53	82¢	$43	0x9fad5d…
06-14 20:07:37	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x090919…
06-14 20:06:43	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	106	82¢	$87	0x663ca1…
06-14 20:06:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,638	87¢	$1,419	0x1308d8…
06-14 20:05:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	112	87¢	$97	0xacb608…
06-14 20:02:03	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	1,859	82¢	$1,524	0x1a7438…
06-14 14:15:37	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	463	75¢	$347	0xc7c728…
06-14 14:14:15	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	714	75¢	$535	0x2071e6…
06-14 14:14:10	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x59beef…
06-14 14:13:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,185	75¢	$889	0xbb1d08…
06-14 13:57:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	294	79¢	$232	0x0a3c67…
06-13 14:03:13	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x1059b7…
06-13 14:02:31	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	211	99¢	$210	0x116796…
06-13 13:42:43	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x4e3019…
06-13 13:39:13	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x66fc2e…
06-13 13:30:04	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xeec27e…
06-13 11:38:03	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x9a0079…
06-13 11:25:19	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	766	99¢	$761	0x4c0e4a…
06-13 11:11:10	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	SELL	141	99¢	$140	0x88a23c…
06-11 19:31:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	684	83¢	$568	0x999de1…
06-11 19:30:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	57¢	$568	0x8fa815…
06-11 18:05:07	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	BUY	2,054	94¢	$1,930	0x57ceb0…
06-11 18:03:28	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	SELL	1,500	66¢	$990	0xd49e69…
06-11 05:11:36	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	SELL	942	100¢	$940	0xd4b127…
06-10 22:39:21	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	942	94¢	$890	0x47ef7f…
06-10 22:29:51	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	SELL	1,037	86¢	$890	0x1be52c…
06-10 20:07:34	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	1,037	94¢	$972	0xa67f6e…
06-08 17:29:36	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	946	99¢	$941	0x0cb2ce…
06-08 17:29:16	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x9a939e…
06-08 11:26:06	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	977	95¢	$930	0x3ecfa1…
06-07 20:24:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	167	40¢	$67	0x2d5e16…
06-07 20:19:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	77¢	$770	0x75c336…
06-07 20:07:03	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x4b033c…
06-07 19:40:52	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	161	60¢	$97	0xa63968…
06-07 19:25:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	163	35¢	$58	0xb76115…
06-07 19:22:27	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x01df0e…
06-07 19:22:24	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x37b42d…
06-07 19:22:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	131	25¢	$33	0xfa96aa…
06-07 19:22:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	664	72¢	$478	0x726930…
06-07 19:18:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	664	75¢	$500	0xca0e17…
06-07 19:18:43	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	379	24¢	$91	0xea218a…
06-07 19:18:21	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	379	26¢	$100	0x346e46…
06-07 19:13:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0x778fa0…
06-07 19:05:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	184	55¢	$101	0x722c79…
06-07 19:05:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xf0529e…
06-07 19:05:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x4db7f3…
06-07 19:03:07	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x3112c6…
06-01 21:02:47	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	287	66¢	$189	0x8addda…
06-01 20:57:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	27	66¢	$18	0xba38c4…
06-01 20:57:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	27	66¢	$18	0x6ad6b7…
06-01 20:57:11	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	27	66¢	$18	0x5e0769…
06-01 20:56:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	66¢	$660	0xe62c8b…
06-01 20:56:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	89	66¢	$59	0x140e50…
06-01 20:56:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb35c9a…
06-01 20:56:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xaea408…
06-01 20:56:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5f680f…
06-01 11:01:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,050	100¢	$3,047	0xbcab33…
05-27 16:02:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	241	78¢	$188	0xf22ef2…
05-27 16:01:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x6718b7…
05-27 16:01:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xe82b12…
05-27 16:01:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x148d92…
05-27 16:01:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x062640…
05-27 16:01:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	321	78¢	$251	0x7d60fd…
05-27 16:00:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x6bd911…
05-27 16:00:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,250	78¢	$975	0xa08c8f…
05-27 16:00:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x4de451…
05-27 15:58:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x61a8c5…
05-27 15:58:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,151	78¢	$898	0xc74a97…
05-27 13:09:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,171	76¢	$2,410	0x246fb0…
05-26 21:58:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,346	74¢	$996	0x59d84b…
05-26 21:57:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	154	99¢	$152	0x468f99…
05-25 21:15:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,515	66¢	$1,000	0x697313…
05-25 18:31:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	310	65¢	$202	0x6026ee…
05-24 14:02:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x06f97e…
05-09 23:32:46	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xc20f73…
05-07 22:10:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	2,100	96¢	$2,016	0x8cc9bf…
05-07 21:59:18	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	182	6¢	$10	0x97e31a…
04-19 17:34:20	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	142	90¢	$128	0x6d0926…
04-19 12:19:06	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	880	90¢	$792	0x7f523a…
04-19 12:17:10	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	73	90¢	$66	0x833eec…
04-19 12:17:08	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0xf96719…
04-17 20:25:22	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	No	SELL	39	18¢	$7	0xb52490…
04-17 14:00:00	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	No	SELL	157	18¢	$28	0x0e7912…
04-16 14:35:26	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	1,050	93¢	$976	0xfcbe15…
04-16 13:48:12	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	558	91¢	$508	0x06a641…
04-16 13:43:40	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	412	91¢	$375	0x513e4a…
04-16 13:31:56	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x44d081…
04-16 13:30:58	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	27	91¢	$24	0xeed470…
04-16 13:11:10	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2a3401…
04-16 13:06:38	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x3f449f…
04-16 13:03:50	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x45733f…
04-16 12:54:32	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x48a11b…
04-16 12:50:34	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	No	BUY	71	91¢	$65	0x8eb5a6…
04-16 05:53:16	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	No	SELL	970	100¢	$969	0x4fb460…
04-16 05:09:26	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0x9b89fb…
04-15 01:27:34	btc updown 5m 1776216300	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x6abd33…
04-15 01:21:54	btc updown 5m 1776216000	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xfd10e6…
04-15 01:19:30	btc updown 5m 1776215700	Up	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x4b8055…
04-15 01:18:34	btc updown 5m 1776215700	Up	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xcf2065…