Cautious-Recommendation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

177

lifetime

Volume

$14.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-27 11:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 100% +$0

Other

26% 100% +$6

Sports

20% — —

Politics

7% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$533	267	267	+0	open	—	02-15 10:58
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	4	$431	216	216	+0	open	—	01-19 09:16
Will Union Berlin win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	2	$278	139	139	+0	open	—	02-02 08:03
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	2	$278	139	139	+0	open	—	02-02 08:28
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$275	138	138	+0	open	—	02-02 21:55
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$273	137	137	+0	open	—	01-24 06:30
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$273	136	136	+0	open	—	01-24 06:50
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$272	136	136	+0	open	—	01-24 07:14
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$272	136	136	+0	open	—	01-25 07:07
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$240	121	121	+0	open	—	03-03 04:09
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$239	121	121	+0	open	—	03-03 04:52
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$238	119	119	+0	open	—	03-09 11:56
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$238	119	119	+0	open	—	03-12 11:13
will phil mickelson win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$231	116	116	+0	open	—	03-17 11:09
will wyndham clark win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$231	116	116	+0	open	—	03-17 11:28
will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	2	$230	115	115	+0	open	—	03-28 07:16
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$228	114	114	+0	open	—	03-29 04:26
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$224	113	113	+0	open	—	03-29 05:49
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 08:39
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$195	98	98	+0	open	—	04-21 08:45
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$190	95	95	+0	open	—	04-04 08:36
will the price of ethereum be between 2800 2900 on february 1	1	$139	139	0	+139	open	—	02-01 09:40
will solana dip to 60 in january 2026	1	$139	139	0	+139	open	—	01-31 14:54
will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 30	1	$138	139	0	+139	open	—	01-30 11:46
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 400 419	1	$137	138	0	+138	open	—	02-03 10:39
solana above 70 on february 12	1	$136	136	0	+136	open	—	02-12 12:50
ethereum above 1600 on february 11	1	$136	136	0	+136	open	—	02-11 08:43
ethereum above 2400 on february 6	1	$136	136	0	+136	open	—	02-06 11:48
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on february 10	1	$136	136	0	+136	open	—	02-10 07:25
will the price of ethereum be between 2100 2200 on february 23	1	$134	134	0	+134	open	—	02-23 09:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 11:51:50	will rklb reach 156 in june 2026	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x467348…
05-31 05:59:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x92f7b7…
05-31 05:51:08	Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2	Nongshim RedForce	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x971d1b…
05-30 08:04:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x5b0976…
05-30 03:15:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	119	100¢	$119	0x949763…
05-28 12:58:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x2b7ff4…
05-27 07:08:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	119	100¢	$119	0xd117df…
05-27 07:04:29	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic	Dino Prizmic	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xa35c48…
05-26 10:54:20	Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x08b477…
05-26 10:52:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	121	96¢	$117	0x46b965…
05-24 12:02:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x0febb7…
05-24 11:55:12	Athletics vs. San Diego Padres	Athletics	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xf297b0…
05-23 12:28:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xe7e0b8…
05-22 04:43:06	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xb8bf48…
05-21 11:37:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x8f3ef1…
05-21 11:33:22	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0xd82ea5…
05-20 06:40:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0xaff348…
05-20 04:41:54	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry	Shuai Zhang	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0f997e…
05-19 05:09:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x40d540…
05-18 09:15:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x30d6a5…
05-17 06:36:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0xdb684e…
05-15 13:01:21	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0xf099da…
05-14 05:48:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xbce333…
05-14 05:35:44	Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	ex-HEROIC	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xaa9d7f…
05-11 06:45:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x08e7fc…
05-09 03:55:43	Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	Rex Regum Qeon	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x8aad23…
05-08 04:13:46	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xb26f14…
05-07 06:22:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x65bb91…
05-06 12:01:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x7d36c1…
05-06 11:52:42	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	Karolina Pliskova	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xb2bce7…
05-02 08:11:02	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 2?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xb88085…
05-01 12:03:36	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x67b8a1…
04-30 06:49:56	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x101ee2…
04-28 07:58:36	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x557cc5…
04-27 02:49:54	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 27?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x687301…
04-26 05:33:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x0742a8…
04-26 04:42:50	Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	T1	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x50d239…
04-25 07:43:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xe6cb27…
04-24 07:46:32	bitcoin above 82k on april 24	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xe11079…
04-23 08:50:20	bitcoin above 72k on april 23	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x57ce61…
04-22 06:56:16	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 22	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x7fd422…
04-21 08:54:46	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$97	0xe5d86f…
04-21 08:45:22	Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	98	100¢	$97	0x0ba773…
04-21 08:26:18	Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$97	0xa92218…
04-20 06:08:38	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on april 20	No	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x1e79f6…
04-20 06:05:16	Madrid Open, Qualification: Billy Harris vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	Daniel Merida Aguilar	BUY	5	77¢	$3	0x8db738…
04-19 08:00:14	bitcoin above 80k on april 19	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xbc0764…
04-19 07:46:56	lol th mkoi 2026 04 19	Movistar KOI	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x630980…
04-17 02:06:04	ethereum above 2100 on april 17	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$95	0x1a405e…
04-16 09:12:26	bitcoin above 70k on april 16	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x01e837…
04-15 07:57:22	bitcoin above 78k on april 15	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x484606…
04-14 10:58:21	ethereum above 2200 on april 14	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x790f71…
04-13 04:08:35	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on april 13	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x47c46d…
04-12 12:43:03	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 12	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x5b2775…
04-12 12:34:17	nhl van ana 2026 04 12	Ducks	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x47acc9…
04-11 12:23:01	bitcoin above 76k on april 11	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2f30a0…
04-10 07:55:01	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 10	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6fd75e…
04-09 09:40:55	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 9	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0xbe2c4a…
04-08 08:57:53	bitcoin above 66k on april 8	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xab743a…
04-07 08:48:57	ethereum above 1900 on april 7	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x2e378d…
04-07 08:39:05	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$99	0x61d62b…
04-07 08:11:03	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$99	0x12d037…
04-06 05:11:51	bitcoin above 76k on april 6	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xc3b081…
04-05 07:44:05	will the price of ethereum be between 1800 1900 on april 5	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x71ff7e…
04-05 07:36:11	nba ind cle 2026 04 05	Pacers	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x4fecdd…
04-04 09:38:37	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 165 189	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf01f42…
04-04 08:36:05	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	95	100¢	$95	0xd02626…
03-31 12:29:05	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x175703…
03-31 12:24:47	atp etcheve gomez 2026 03 31	Tomas Etcheverry	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xaf7df8…
03-30 03:33:28	ethereum above 2300 on march 30	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$2	0x2f5b94…
03-30 03:14:40	will the price of ethereum be less than 1700 on march 30	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe75c9a…
03-30 03:13:04	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 30	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$2	0xdb1880…
03-30 03:12:46	bitcoin above 72k on march 30	Yes	BUY	1,050	0¢	$2	0x329f2d…
03-29 06:09:36	will bitcoin reach 76k march 23 29	Yes	BUY	493	0¢	$1	0xfd545c…
03-29 05:57:04	ethereum above 1700 on march 29	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe51c10…
03-29 05:55:42	will the price of ethereum be between 1600 1700 on march 29	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3908f9…
03-29 05:52:20	bitcoin above 60k on march 29	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x872feb…
03-29 05:50:56	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 29	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x2b8e3a…
03-29 05:49:02	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	113	100¢	$112	0x638303…
03-29 04:28:42	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0xe084ed…
03-29 04:26:58	lol mkoi fnc 2026 03 29	Fnatic	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x9ec32e…
03-29 04:26:26	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x597ad1…
03-29 04:09:28	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xd79ebf…
03-28 07:31:23	ethereum above 2200 on march 28	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x2209df…
03-28 07:17:07	ufc mic8 nik1 2026 03 28	Niko Price	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x48f59c…
03-28 07:16:25	will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	No	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0x743080…
03-28 06:57:29	will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xb030a0…
03-27 15:39:45	tsla close above 410 on march 27 2026	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x80f06f…
03-27 02:34:17	will bitcoin reach 72k on march 26	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xfc2e71…
03-25 12:51:59	ethereum above 2000 on march 25	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x40ef91…
03-22 04:08:49	will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on march 22	No	BUY	115	100¢	$114	0xc8b5fa…
03-21 06:09:57	elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 165 189	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x62811e…
03-20 09:00:33	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on march 20	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xaae403…
03-18 11:02:21	ethereum above 2100 on march 18	Yes	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x086afe…
03-18 09:31:21	nba gsw bos 2026 03 18	Warriors	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x8f5aaa…
03-17 11:33:27	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 320 339	No	BUY	116	100¢	$115	0x651cb2…
03-17 11:28:57	will wyndham clark win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	116	100¢	$115	0x65f0c8…
03-17 11:10:45	will wyndham clark win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	116	100¢	$115	0xb42c63…
03-17 11:09:19	will phil mickelson win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	116	100¢	$115	0xb464f5…
03-17 10:49:13	will phil mickelson win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0xd24635…