Ill-Informed-Blog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$15.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$286

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 05-29 03:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

92% 100% +$1

Politics

7% 50% $-0

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	5	$5.5K	2,790	2,790	+0	open	—	03-16 15:19
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	8	$2.9K	4,374	4,374	+0	No	+$0	03-17 05:56
will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	4	$2.7K	1,430	1,430	+0	open	—	03-15 14:26
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1080 1119	3	$2.5K	1,270	1,270	+0	open	—	03-15 16:48
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	4	$356	1,740	1,740	+0	open	—	03-17 06:08
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	4	$315	172	168	+4	open	—	03-15 21:20
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$299	153	153	+0	No	$-0	03-15 22:59
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	4	$214	2,523	2,523	+0	open	—	03-17 04:28
cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14 map handicap away 1pt5	1	$192	266	0	+266	open	—	03-14 03:42
nhl sj mon 2026 03 14 total 5pt5	2	$114	175	0	+175	open	—	03-14 06:20
mls lag skc 2026 03 14 spread home 1pt5	1	$109	176	0	+176	open	—	03-14 03:14
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?	4	$93	602	602	+0	open	—	03-15 10:29
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-27 15:52
CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 0.5	1	$18	20	0	+20	open	—	05-29 03:37
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	3	$17	103	103	+0	Yes	+$0	03-15 23:15
lal rea elc 2026 03 14 elc	1	$16	18	0	+18	open	—	03-14 04:01
epl sun bri 2026 03 14 spread home 1pt5	1	$14	15	0	+15	open	—	03-14 09:39
El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC: O/U 4.5	1	$13	14	0	+14	Under	+$1	05-13 06:41
scop hib liv 2026 03 14 liv	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	03-14 06:43
epl che new 2026 03 14 spread away 1pt5	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	03-14 09:22
will it was just an accident win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	2	$3	231	229	+2	open	—	03-15 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-29 03:37:45	CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x50e970…
05-13 06:41:03	El Ittihad SC El Iskandary vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x38430f…
04-27 15:52:14	CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x949adf…
03-17 06:08:55	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	SELL	1,061	10¢	$111	0xdc380a…
03-17 06:01:55	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	1,061	10¢	$109	0xb026ca…
03-17 05:56:01	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,417	97¢	$1,379	0xa05bcd…
03-17 05:48:13	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	1,395	97¢	$1,356	0xc83216…
03-17 05:48:13	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x736b33…
03-17 05:42:45	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	250	3¢	$7	0xc4b115…
03-17 05:42:45	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	671	3¢	$18	0x3967f1…
03-17 05:36:03	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	921	3¢	$26	0x0888c4…
03-17 05:30:23	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	SELL	679	10¢	$70	0x1a5d04…
03-17 05:20:21	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	679	10¢	$65	0xd79332…
03-17 04:57:03	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,036	3¢	$63	0x58a7b6…
03-17 04:50:49	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,036	3¢	$63	0x5c5f88…
03-17 04:28:23	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	Yes	SELL	646	4¢	$29	0x9f2235…
03-17 04:28:23	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	Yes	SELL	850	4¢	$38	0x95fb86…
03-17 04:28:23	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	Yes	SELL	1,027	5¢	$46	0x040483…
03-17 04:20:39	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	Yes	BUY	2,523	4¢	$101	0x389212…
03-16 15:19:25	will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	SELL	1,373	99¢	$1,357	0x53b2bb…
03-15 23:15:45	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	No	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xf0c432…
03-15 23:15:19	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	No	SELL	96	8¢	$8	0x717910…
03-15 23:06:43	Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	No	BUY	103	8¢	$8	0xa4485c…
03-15 22:59:27	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	153	98¢	$149	0x0ed9cb…
03-15 22:50:09	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	153	98¢	$150	0x3d2353…
03-15 21:20:11	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	No	SELL	74	92¢	$68	0x007351…
03-15 21:20:09	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	No	SELL	94	92¢	$87	0x7776e0…
03-15 21:14:19	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	No	BUY	74	93¢	$69	0x4e1015…
03-15 21:14:19	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	No	BUY	98	93¢	$91	0x02cb89…
03-15 20:50:05	will it was just an accident win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	229	1¢	$1	0xf61d0d…
03-15 20:42:13	will it was just an accident win best original screenplay at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	231	0¢	$1	0x76df6b…
03-15 17:30:47	will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	BUY	1,373	98¢	$1,348	0x1c8637…
03-15 16:48:47	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1080 1119	No	SELL	983	98¢	$961	0xe59094…
03-15 16:48:47	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1080 1119	No	SELL	287	98¢	$281	0xa97759…
03-15 16:43:27	elon musk of tweets march 2026 1080 1119	No	BUY	1,270	98¢	$1,246	0xad6e0c…
03-15 14:26:05	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	SELL	1,430	94¢	$1,350	0xec8e94…
03-15 14:20:13	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	555	95¢	$525	0xca1504…
03-15 14:20:13	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	468	95¢	$443	0x2b75b2…
03-15 14:20:13	will google have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	407	95¢	$385	0x1eb269…
03-15 11:49:01	will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	SELL	1,417	98¢	$1,386	0x78ff34…
03-15 11:43:15	will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	BUY	175	98¢	$172	0xb191c3…
03-15 11:43:13	will deepseek have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	BUY	1,242	98¢	$1,217	0xb1043c…
03-15 10:29:35	Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	416	8¢	$32	0xcd59df…
03-15 10:29:35	Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	186	8¢	$15	0xb42102…
03-15 10:24:07	Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	8¢	$12	0xb8fa58…
03-15 10:24:07	Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	440	8¢	$33	0xa0d40a…
03-14 09:39:51	epl sun bri 2026 03 14 spread home 1pt5	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x6d7522…
03-14 09:22:05	epl che new 2026 03 14 spread away 1pt5	Chelsea FC	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x143219…
03-14 06:43:31	scop hib liv 2026 03 14 liv	No	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x7cad34…
03-14 06:20:23	nhl sj mon 2026 03 14 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	80	65¢	$52	0xefd1ff…
03-14 06:20:23	nhl sj mon 2026 03 14 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	95	65¢	$62	0x83c604…
03-14 04:01:09	lal rea elc 2026 03 14 elc	No	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xcffb7f…
03-14 03:42:35	cs2 aur1 ast10 2026 03 14 map handicap away 1pt5	Astralis	BUY	266	72¢	$192	0x440870…
03-14 03:14:29	mls lag skc 2026 03 14 spread home 1pt5	Sporting Kansas City	BUY	176	62¢	$109	0x61d3a4…