Warlike-Ambiguity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

47.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$80

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 05-19 06:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 43% $-16

Other

3% 100% +$0

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$6	13	0	+13	Up	$-6	05-10 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Up	+$6	05-10 16:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Up	$-5	05-10 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	05-10 15:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	1	$4	7	0	+7	Down	+$3	05-10 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	1	$4	6	0	+6	Up	+$2	05-10 18:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$3	7	0	+7	Down	$-3	05-10 16:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	05-14 06:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	05-14 06:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	05-14 07:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$3	4	0	+4	Up	$-3	05-10 16:58
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	2	$2	1	1	+0	Team Falcons	+$0	05-10 15:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	2	$2	105	0	+105	Up	$-2	05-10 15:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	Down	+$1	05-14 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	05-19 06:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$2	48	0	+48	Up	$-2	05-10 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$2	53	0	+53	Down	$-2	05-10 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$2	10	0	+10	Down	$-2	05-10 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	Down	+$0	05-10 18:51
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$1	11	11	+0	open	—	05-13 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-14 06:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	1	$1	10	0	+10	Down	$-1	05-10 18:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-10 17:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	$-1	05-10 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	+$1	05-10 16:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	$-1	05-12 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	$-1	05-10 15:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-19 06:17
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	1	$1	11	0	+11	open	—	05-13 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	1	$1	4	0	+4	Up	$-1	05-10 15:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 06:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x6bed6b…
05-19 06:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdd6099…
05-14 07:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x2a2a77…
05-14 07:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x62dd87…
05-14 06:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x4e40df…
05-14 06:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x6aeb01…
05-14 06:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xd97331…
05-14 06:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x99a893…
05-14 06:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf5e74b…
05-14 06:29:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x312a39…
05-14 06:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x37eae0…
05-14 06:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1addab…
05-13 16:41:44	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8b8621…
05-13 00:49:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x8e33db…
05-12 17:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7c01d6…
05-12 17:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5f1c04…
05-10 19:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x38ba25…
05-10 18:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x14ea01…
05-10 18:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xcd4ecf…
05-10 18:46:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xae939e…
05-10 18:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xe5840e…
05-10 18:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xde9408…
05-10 18:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xad58e7…
05-10 18:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5011b3…
05-10 18:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xa647fa…
05-10 18:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xdd3509…
05-10 18:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb59af4…
05-10 18:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x7591b7…
05-10 17:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xaa1f0a…
05-10 17:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x83618f…
05-10 17:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xec0527…
05-10 17:46:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x081396…
05-10 17:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x16dc28…
05-10 16:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xddbe5a…
05-10 16:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xacb668…
05-10 16:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4caed1…
05-10 16:42:14	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x16e030…
05-10 16:37:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x8ebbb5…
05-10 16:26:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xb43775…
05-10 16:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xfd5b27…
05-10 15:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8fdb9a…
05-10 15:35:51	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Team Falcons	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7e0d53…
05-10 15:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf4702e…
05-10 15:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xb93769…
05-10 15:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd34a61…
05-10 15:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbde539…
05-10 14:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x79c5f8…
05-10 14:15:51	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Team Falcons	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x51864d…