Misguided-Pony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$115

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$5.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-09 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

44% — —

Crypto

32% 100% +$115

Sports

15% — —

Politics

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	12	$477	946	0	+946	open	—	03-15 03:14
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	3	$310	255	255	+0	open	—	02-09 02:54
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	8	$278	1,507	0	+1,507	open	—	05-31 18:43
wbc can usa 2026 03 13	3	$204	121	110	+11	open	—	03-13 14:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$203	109	109	+0	open	—	02-09 02:54
gc hit 4700 high jan 2026 398 168 413 627	5	$177	175	175	+0	open	—	01-20 14:37
gc hit 4900 high jan 2026 789 841 274 624	3	$152	248	0	+248	open	—	01-22 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	3	$142	100	100	+0	Down	+$56	05-08 15:10
wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	3	$140	1,029	0	+1,029	open	—	03-13 15:53
wbc aus sok 2026 03 09	3	$140	203	0	+203	open	—	03-09 10:12
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	1	$124	886	0	+886	open	—	02-01 11:30
btc updown 5m 1772812500	3	$110	304	0	+304	open	—	03-06 15:58
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$104	111	111	+0	open	—	05-12 15:38
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	1	$100	185	0	+185	open	—	06-09 12:35
Knicks vs. Spurs	1	$100	270	0	+270	open	—	06-03 14:34
btc updown 5m 1772119500	1	$100	147	0	+147	open	—	02-26 15:25
wbc sok cht 2026 03 07	1	$100	385	0	+385	open	—	03-07 16:58
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	1	$100	263	0	+263	open	—	06-09 12:35
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	2	$100	139	0	+139	open	—	06-06 02:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$95	86	86	+0	Down	+$14	05-08 15:03
will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$92	550	550	+0	open	—	03-27 16:53
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	3	$77	440	167	+273	open	—	01-31 14:17
btc updown 5m 1772903400	2	$70	140	0	+140	open	—	03-07 17:10
will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	3	$67	52	52	+0	open	—	02-01 11:17
will ethereum dip to 2200 in february 2026	2	$58	182	182	+0	open	—	02-01 23:18
btc updown 5m 1776357900	4	$56	46	45	+1	open	—	04-16 16:49
wbc ita pur 2026 03 14	1	$50	100	0	+100	open	—	03-13 14:29
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$50	150	0	+150	open	—	01-30 03:25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$50	208	0	+208	open	—	05-06 16:45
will italy make the 2026 world baseball classic final	1	$50	106	0	+106	open	—	03-16 16:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 12:35:36	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0xc6d863…
06-09 12:35:10	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x13a25d…
06-06 02:39:34	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xf9b23e…
06-06 02:38:57	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Knicks	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x47abff…
06-03 14:34:25	Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x735ffc…
06-01 00:35:15	Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x6f894d…
05-31 18:43:12	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x359d0c…
05-31 18:38:37	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x2d0ad2…
05-31 18:23:19	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xf25319…
05-31 18:22:54	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x154db9…
05-31 18:20:04	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x035a0b…
05-31 17:51:21	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xb1034a…
05-31 17:48:50	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	477	21¢	$100	0xd4da7a…
05-31 17:45:41	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	Cheddy	BUY	225	22¢	$50	0xfa3f68…
05-12 15:44:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xdc6731…
05-12 15:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x23f952…
05-12 15:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2c1142…
05-12 15:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x5a30ff…
05-12 15:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x113739…
05-12 15:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe421fa…
05-12 15:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x86f4ef…
05-12 15:38:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	67¢	$74	0x837463…
05-08 15:10:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x98bd4b…
05-08 15:06:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x08bbe2…
05-08 15:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	67	49¢	$33	0xa5f329…
05-08 15:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0x63c501…
05-08 15:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	83¢	$10	0xda63ec…
05-08 15:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	73	58¢	$42	0x36c3f3…
05-08 15:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	73	41¢	$30	0x6ee0ff…
05-06 16:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xae0b90…
05-06 16:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xb02b4e…
05-06 16:45:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0xbc025b…
05-06 16:44:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xa1eed0…
04-19 15:35:46	btc updown 5m 1776612900	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xb0d192…
04-19 15:35:14	btc updown 5m 1776612900	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xe0ad91…
04-19 14:10:46	btc updown 5m 1776607800	Down	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x53c293…
04-19 14:05:50	btc updown 5m 1776607500	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xadbcf2…
04-19 14:05:38	btc updown 5m 1776607500	Down	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xa8b308…
04-19 14:03:46	btc updown 5m 1776607200	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xcc0280…
04-17 12:51:24	btc updown 5m 1776430200	Up	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x1cbc80…
04-17 12:51:08	btc updown 5m 1776430200	Up	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0xafcaff…
04-17 12:50:14	btc updown 5m 1776430200	Up	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x73833c…
04-17 12:48:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x384ca6…
04-16 17:30:50	btc updown 5m 1776360600	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xf6258e…
04-16 17:00:36	btc updown 5m 1776358800	Down	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0xfc8e0a…
04-16 16:59:32	btc updown 5m 1776358500	Down	SELL	70	14¢	$10	0xccafbd…
04-16 16:55:26	btc updown 5m 1776358500	Down	BUY	73	41¢	$30	0xddbb9d…
04-16 16:52:52	btc updown 5m 1776358200	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xac6a5d…
04-16 16:50:50	btc updown 5m 1776358200	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x4b3e44…
04-16 16:49:48	btc updown 5m 1776357900	Up	SELL	16	65¢	$11	0x4abab9…
04-16 16:49:02	btc updown 5m 1776357900	Down	SELL	28	55¢	$16	0xa0fd81…
04-16 16:47:36	btc updown 5m 1776357900	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x370342…
04-16 16:46:14	btc updown 5m 1776357900	Down	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xf5132c…
04-16 16:40:20	btc updown 5m 1776357600	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xce243c…
04-13 17:25:53	btc updown 5m 1776101100	Up	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x9d0ed5…
04-09 15:27:43	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xfd1596…
04-09 15:26:53	will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	607	2¢	$10	0x97bc1b…
04-09 15:26:41	will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	628	3¢	$20	0x054be1…
04-09 15:26:31	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x986b15…
04-09 15:26:25	will bryson dechambeau win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0xbbe1fb…
04-09 15:26:19	will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	213	9¢	$20	0x4a9f11…
04-01 15:46:35	btc updown 5m 1775058300	Down	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0xb4c96e…
03-30 15:39:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0xefe809…
03-27 16:53:21	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	550	13¢	$72	0xadc8b4…
03-26 15:35:33	btc updown 5m 1774539300	Up	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x144b1d…
03-26 15:33:59	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	95	17¢	$16	0x0134b4…
03-25 14:28:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x049ccb…
03-25 14:27:45	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x2dbed3…
03-24 14:10:25	btc updown 5m 1774361400	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2442cb…
03-24 14:05:13	btc updown 5m 1774361100	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x8beb00…
03-16 16:05:13	will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x36fc42…
03-16 16:04:53	wbc ita ven 2026 03 16	Italy	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xd7e757…
03-16 16:04:27	will italy make the 2026 world baseball classic final	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xd6021d…
03-16 16:03:21	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	550	4¢	$20	0x3913c7…
03-16 16:03:07	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x2dc14d…
03-16 16:02:53	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x75056a…
03-15 23:56:47	wbc dor usa 2026 03 15	Dominican Rep.	BUY	26	46¢	$12	0xd5b3b2…
03-15 03:14:37	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	159	34¢	$54	0xd82929…
03-15 03:12:51	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x2eaedd…
03-15 02:50:13	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xc07f79…
03-15 02:24:51	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x8a4329…
03-15 02:14:13	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x99b8e4…
03-15 01:50:29	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x747b57…
03-15 01:36:35	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0xb3c096…
03-15 01:32:49	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x751687…
03-15 01:32:17	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x594d34…
03-15 01:30:59	will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x639367…
03-15 01:13:49	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0xd873bf…
03-13 15:53:13	wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	South Korea	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x8f6f17…
03-13 14:30:23	wbc can usa 2026 03 13	USA	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x81d029…
03-13 14:29:01	wbc ita pur 2026 03 14	Puerto Rico	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x6a8f49…
03-13 14:28:41	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x579c42…
03-13 14:27:21	wbc can usa 2026 03 13	USA	SELL	110	86¢	$95	0x739020…
03-13 14:26:33	wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	South Korea	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xb1e3a7…
03-12 16:17:33	wbc can usa 2026 03 13	USA	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xb40fde…
03-12 16:17:05	wbc jap ven 2026 03 14	Japan	BUY	170	61¢	$104	0xec6933…
03-12 16:15:59	wbc dor sok 2026 03 13	South Korea	BUY	695	14¢	$100	0x7abad8…
03-10 15:20:21	btc updown 5m 1773156000	Up	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x8c514b…
03-09 10:12:19	wbc aus sok 2026 03 09	South Korea	BUY	119	67¢	$80	0xac5b79…
03-08 14:03:55	wbc aus sok 2026 03 09	South Korea	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xa4cc2e…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	53	$8.62K	2,463	05-29 17:52
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	52	$60.6K	735	06-03 22:53
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	50	$467.8K	9,247	06-08 11:55
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	50	$132.5K	20,078	06-01 06:48
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	49	$34.3K	12,731	04-16 14:57
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	44	$142.1K	13,563	04-27 13:40
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	44	$10.8K	1,575	05-12 15:44
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	42	$57.9K	4,967	03-28 06:13