Forked-Historian — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

+$79

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,234

lifetime

Volume

$23.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$1.13K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-21 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% 100% +$15

Politics

37% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+500	$491	99¢	$495	+$4	07-20 14:55
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+300	$275	96¢	$289	+$14	07-20 05:08
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	-650	$-260	38¢	$-247	+$13	07-13 18:20
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	Yes	-262	$-148	38¢	$-100	+$48	07-04 16:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	20	$2.6K	1,626	1,000	+626	open	—	03-26 00:45
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	9	$2.2K	1,200	1,100	+100	open	—	07-20 05:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	62	$2.0K	1,252	1,243	+10	open	—	05-30 08:27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	43	$1.3K	1,473	1,629	-156	open	—	02-06 01:13
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	18	$1.3K	1,170	1,170	+0	open	—	07-20 10:34
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	16	$1.3K	1,067	267	+800	open	—	05-31 23:08
Kash Patel out by April 30?	42	$1.1K	3,928	2,455	+1,473	open	—	04-27 00:42
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	17	$1.0K	1,450	1,450	+0	open	—	07-13 18:20
pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	2	$907	500	500	+0	open	—	02-19 10:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	35	$812	770	494	+276	open	—	05-25 23:03
howard lutnick out as secretary of commerce by march 31	7	$736	500	300	+200	open	—	02-22 23:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$491	500	0	+500	open	—	07-20 14:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	35	$434	1,132	1,232	-100	open	—	01-09 18:59
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?	6	$384	300	250	+50	open	—	03-09 11:57
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$372	200	200	+0	open	—	01-08 13:25
will don lemon be criminally charged	3	$288	200	200	-0	open	—	01-22 17:57
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	19	$247	291	291	+0	open	—	07-20 10:31
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	31	$247	416	416	+0	open	—	06-11 01:00
another us government shutdown by february 14	5	$241	228	137	+91	open	—	02-06 20:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	49	$229	1,118	1,158	-40	open	—	04-17 19:41
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	19	$206	200	241	-41	open	—	01-04 15:40
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	7	$204	100	362	-262	open	—	07-04 16:18
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	18	$201	170	160	+10	open	—	03-30 15:34
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	13	$198	110	110	+0	open	—	03-26 22:47
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	1	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	06-05 11:40
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?	9	$186	2,263	0	+2,263	open	—	03-30 13:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026?	5	$184	201	0	+201	open	—	05-29 22:10
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	14	$160	126	126	+0	open	—	07-12 22:10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	21	$157	164	159	+5	open	—	06-16 20:54
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	26	$146	198	238	-40	open	—	06-12 15:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 22:08:03	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xc3dd35…
07-20 21:37:34	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	No	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x9309ce…
07-20 21:02:54	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xcf7757…
07-20 16:42:33	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0x1b77f3…
07-20 15:20:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xe38421…
07-20 14:56:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xa47dc3…
07-20 14:55:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x4cef1b…
07-20 14:53:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xabb640…
07-20 14:47:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	187	98¢	$184	0xfc0645…
07-20 14:29:45	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	28	9¢	$2	0x05747d…
07-20 14:18:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xbf3c49…
07-20 14:18:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb591f6…
07-20 14:18:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x7aca44…
07-20 14:18:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0x615006…
07-20 14:18:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x388793…
07-20 14:18:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8bace7…
07-20 14:18:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x3ef070…
07-20 10:34:43	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	170	64¢	$109	0x8b6714…
07-20 10:34:33	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	413	64¢	$264	0x148642…
07-20 10:34:13	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	400	64¢	$256	0xe9f279…
07-20 10:31:51	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0x942d3e…
07-20 10:31:31	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x51e335…
07-20 10:30:49	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xe22cb0…
07-20 10:30:40	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x4f270a…
07-20 10:20:51	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	600	62¢	$371	0x075a77…
07-20 07:43:19	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0xfebe67…
07-20 05:08:24	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$580	0xccbf49…
07-20 03:15:36	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xebc4e4…
07-19 17:01:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0x9b6793…
07-19 16:32:39	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xd8d57b…
07-19 14:39:51	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0x568bf3…
07-19 14:08:34	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xcc97dd…
07-18 22:10:22	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$6	0xf553ce…
07-18 00:01:27	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	55	23¢	$13	0x2a06f2…
07-17 22:03:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xf7eafc…
07-17 19:16:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x697945…
07-17 19:16:37	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	7	9¢	$1	0x65354e…
07-17 19:10:09	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xd954a9…
07-17 14:00:57	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0xce3a99…
07-17 04:30:51	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	19	45¢	$9	0x9e5fd5…
07-17 04:22:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	72	45¢	$32	0xdee3c2…
07-17 02:04:21	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	56	42¢	$23	0x23f79d…
07-17 02:02:48	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x68d8f0…
07-17 01:52:27	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	150	49¢	$74	0x884e4b…
07-17 01:44:54	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x60e4a8…
07-17 01:42:18	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x57567d…
07-16 21:41:23	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x4e9937…
07-16 21:23:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x60f421…
07-16 21:15:34	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x4eeb60…
07-16 21:13:52	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0x820f89…
07-16 20:29:34	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x29bfda…
07-16 18:16:35	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xcd1750…
07-16 15:41:14	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x45c771…
07-15 13:55:35	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5f0dc2…
07-14 18:30:58	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	187	1¢	$2	0x2cbb67…
07-14 18:27:37	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xc4d823…
07-14 16:26:34	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x8b8057…
07-14 16:13:07	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xfefbdb…
07-14 13:58:52	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xd1c010…
07-14 03:19:22	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x63897d…
07-14 01:28:55	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xb41cda…
07-14 00:30:13	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd1f94b…
07-13 18:24:25	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0xeb85c0…
07-13 18:20:32	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	192	38¢	$73	0xf0019a…
07-13 18:15:34	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x8271ce…
07-13 18:10:16	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	148	39¢	$58	0x8dd035…
07-13 18:03:49	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	221	39¢	$86	0x12ff1e…
07-13 18:00:23	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x74cd21…
07-13 16:36:32	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	139	36¢	$50	0x5aaa52…
07-13 15:33:28	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x19d1f2…
07-13 15:33:20	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	300	38¢	$114	0xad7e06…
07-13 15:23:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	200	33¢	$66	0x4c5e76…
07-13 14:13:46	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0x94847f…
07-13 13:50:46	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xe50092…
07-13 12:37:04	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x6929ba…
07-12 23:25:17	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x8cccf0…
07-12 23:12:40	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x688f59…
07-12 22:10:20	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x9ec196…
07-12 21:44:13	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x12deba…
07-12 21:21:17	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0xeb0b47…
07-12 14:49:41	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x2cb637…
07-12 04:23:04	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x91c1bb…
07-11 23:02:01	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x66a753…
07-11 22:55:47	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x95e057…
07-11 21:27:55	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf03ed1…
07-11 21:10:08	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x55eae4…
07-11 15:34:50	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x974ca3…
07-11 03:52:49	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	16	72¢	$12	0x73e710…
07-10 22:48:08	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x7d27f8…
07-10 19:53:55	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x10fa5a…
07-10 13:27:23	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xdecd59…
07-10 12:59:05	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	30	32¢	$10	0x4378c5…
07-10 12:55:52	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x7054b5…
07-10 06:13:50	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x62cb02…
07-10 01:22:14	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xcff37c…
07-10 00:11:50	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0xd4b6e1…
07-09 17:21:07	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x5ddbaa…
07-09 17:09:52	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xf138d9…
07-09 15:53:43	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x4bd6d2…
07-09 14:24:34	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xffeca9…