Mammoth-Independence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.9%

Resolved

Trades

255

lifetime

Volume

$2.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 06-22 07:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

39% — —

Crypto

36% 68% $-23

Other

13% — —

Tech

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$408	294	294	+0	open	—	05-24 14:36
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	6	$246	223	153	+69	open	—	05-22 12:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$202	129	129	+0	open	—	05-26 14:40
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	3	$147	161	161	+0	open	—	05-23 18:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$75	57	57	+0	open	—	05-27 15:11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	3	$64	109	109	+0	open	—	05-28 05:46
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$63	36	36	+0	open	—	05-28 05:46
wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	10	$58	71	51	+20	open	—	06-10 20:48
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	2	$35	45	45	+0	open	—	05-26 11:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	3	$30	32	0	+32	Up	+$2	05-12 10:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	3	$30	30	0	+30	Up	$-30	05-12 12:08
wti closes above 91 on june 10 2026	2	$27	19	19	+0	open	—	06-10 20:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	3	$25	29	0	+29	Up	$-7	05-12 10:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	1	$20	143	0	+143	open	—	05-23 04:38
wti closes above 94 on june 11 2026	2	$20	49	0	+49	open	—	06-10 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	2	$20	22	0	+22	Down	+$2	05-12 10:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$20	21	0	+21	Down	+$1	05-12 10:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	2	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	05-12 10:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$20	24	0	+24	Down	+$4	05-12 10:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	2	$20	21	0	+21	Up	+$1	05-12 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	4	$20	20	0	+20	Down	+$0	05-12 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	4	$20	21	0	+21	Down	+$1	05-12 06:33
wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	6	$20	30	30	+0	open	—	06-10 17:00
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$17	37	37	+0	open	—	06-10 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	4	$16	19	0	+19	Down	+$1	05-12 10:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	2	$16	38	38	+0	open	—	05-23 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	3	$15	25	0	+25	Down	+$1	05-12 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	3	$15	149	59	+90	Down	$-13	05-10 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	4	$14	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	05-10 16:15
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	3	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	05-20 17:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 07:28:58	wti closes above 75 on june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x442dab…
06-15 09:49:58	wti closes above 81 on june 15 2026	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x5fef20…
06-14 03:09:04	bitcoin above 64k on june 14 2026	No	SELL	29	22¢	$6	0xd2ca0d…
06-10 23:15:36	wti closes above 94 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd9c16a…
06-10 22:36:25	wti closes above 94 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xca93dc…
06-10 20:48:07	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xca195b…
06-10 20:47:48	wti closes above 91 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0xe783ff…
06-10 18:06:07	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x254a95…
06-10 17:05:57	wti closes above 91 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x2f57d8…
06-10 17:00:49	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	No	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x8075aa…
06-10 17:00:43	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	No	SELL	21	15¢	$3	0x3319aa…
06-10 16:33:36	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0x9822e8…
06-10 15:56:10	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x4178cc…
06-10 15:53:24	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x837d1f…
06-10 14:39:37	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf1fbb6…
06-10 14:29:21	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xb007b7…
06-10 14:28:54	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	6	41¢	$3	0x7a1a04…
06-10 14:27:15	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xa721b9…
06-10 14:01:46	wti closes above 90 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x7652b8…
06-10 12:33:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0xf3b4a9…
06-10 12:33:36	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	Yes	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xf76bb8…
06-10 10:21:22	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x97155f…
06-10 10:20:36	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x081cfa…
06-10 10:04:30	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd75dd1…
06-09 16:08:18	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xd5bb0a…
06-09 12:14:54	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0xeb7908…
06-09 09:56:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x1f3c0a…
05-28 05:46:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	109	16¢	$17	0x61ca14…
05-28 05:46:27	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0xb402eb…
05-27 16:28:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xd3cab6…
05-27 15:50:53	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xfaf8a4…
05-27 15:11:25	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	61¢	$35	0xadf31f…
05-27 15:11:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	89	45¢	$40	0x1d9571…
05-26 21:16:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0x41658c…
05-26 14:40:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	129	79¢	$102	0xee004b…
05-26 11:14:45	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	45	22¢	$10	0xa66d3f…
05-24 14:45:22	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xbcbaa8…
05-24 14:44:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	129	78¢	$100	0xe4de6e…
05-24 14:36:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	156	78¢	$122	0x4e6533…
05-24 12:32:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x8d9d23…
05-24 09:56:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	138	75¢	$103	0xd86a2e…
05-23 18:18:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	138	60¢	$83	0x48a46e…
05-23 18:18:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	38	15¢	$6	0x5a3e27…
05-23 18:17:41	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	161	39¢	$63	0xdb6eca…
05-23 09:20:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x725854…
05-23 04:38:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0xeab881…
05-23 03:31:11	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0xb39822…
05-22 20:30:35	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	54¢	$65	0xbe8256…
05-22 12:26:33	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xf6493a…
05-22 08:27:08	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	153	77¢	$118	0xbcc9ef…
05-21 16:34:41	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	18	79¢	$14	0x2f067f…
05-20 17:38:24	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0x3aa849…
05-20 10:45:31	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0x650e11…
05-20 10:44:26	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x2608be…
05-20 10:32:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x9a3be3…
05-19 20:54:25	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x652bcc…
05-19 19:09:34	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x58c190…
05-19 19:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe80f2f…
05-19 18:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf4e453…
05-19 18:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd34cc4…
05-19 17:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe68047…
05-19 17:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa251bd…
05-19 17:18:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x44e3f1…
05-19 16:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf1f88a…
05-19 16:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xf77625…
05-19 16:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xd59121…
05-19 16:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	Up	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf49311…
05-19 13:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa6bb06…
05-19 13:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x10b45a…
05-12 17:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x704096…
05-12 17:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x4f4008…
05-12 17:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa4ca52…
05-12 17:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x830196…
05-12 17:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x9b88ba…
05-12 17:22:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x4d7070…
05-12 17:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x262ecf…
05-12 17:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xfd5663…
05-12 17:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb2cb50…
05-12 17:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x8ce5e6…
05-12 17:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x00613a…
05-12 17:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcf5f01…
05-12 17:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x160344…
05-12 17:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x30097c…
05-12 17:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa0253e…
05-12 16:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb9fbd4…
05-12 16:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd7e6e4…
05-12 16:51:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf0f698…
05-12 16:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xe2f031…
05-12 16:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x711d7f…
05-12 16:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x612b66…
05-12 16:40:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x69dafe…
05-12 16:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe80347…
05-12 16:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb4c11e…
05-12 16:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x454e37…
05-12 16:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb2f117…
05-12 16:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xcaae4a…
05-12 16:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x8bae25…
05-12 16:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xe9b9cc…
05-12 16:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7ef236…
05-12 16:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xad87bd…