Blue-Encirclement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$640

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 07-02 19:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

79% — —

Politics

18% 0% $-25

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes		+250	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	07-02 19:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	2	$115	68	68	+0	open	—	04-27 18:25
will russia capture kostyantynivka by january 31	1	$92	0	92	-92	open	—	01-31 18:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	2	$54	44	44	+0	Yes	$-0	04-08 19:19
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	1	$50	85	0	+85	open	—	04-27 18:52
will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	1	$42	0	45	-45	open	—	02-17 19:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	2	$39	27	27	+0	open	—	04-27 18:47
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	1	$30	92	0	+92	open	—	06-02 18:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$25	25,000	0	+25,000	Yes	$-25	05-09 19:13
ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by march 31 214	2	$25	15	15	+0	open	—	03-20 10:45
will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	03-20 10:46
will taylor swift have a 1 hit in the us in june	1	$20	500	0	+500	open	—	06-04 17:57
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	1	$18	0	19	-19	open	—	06-02 14:43
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	1	$18	0	19	-19	open	—	06-02 14:44
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$17	3,001	0	+3,001	open	—	02-04 20:56
will charles hittler be the next mayor of arcis sur aube	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	03-20 11:10
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	06-02 14:44
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-13 15:41
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	04-21 14:32
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-02 18:15
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-02 18:14
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	06-02 18:10
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-27 18:53
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	01-31 18:47
will the sp 500 spx open at 67006800 on april 8	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-08 19:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	07-02 19:05
will the sp 500 spx open at 66006700 on april 8	1	$1	578	0	+578	open	—	04-08 19:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	1	$1	8	0	+8	open	—	06-20 17:52
will olivia rodrigo have a 1 hit in the us in june	1	$1	14	0	+14	open	—	06-04 17:54
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?	1	$1	9	0	+9	open	—	04-27 18:51
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	1	$0	0	14	-14	open	—	01-31 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 19:05:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x8e499a…
06-20 17:52:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa1f7ca…
06-04 17:57:54	will taylor swift have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x3c93e9…
06-04 17:54:49	will olivia rodrigo have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x413530…
06-02 18:15:54	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x5fa524…
06-02 18:14:09	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x797ade…
06-02 18:10:20	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xb8997e…
06-02 18:05:00	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	BUY	92	33¢	$30	0xdf4570…
06-02 14:44:29	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xef1738…
06-02 14:44:06	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x9bf6a2…
06-02 14:43:43	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x6c880a…
05-09 19:13:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$25	0x57307d…
04-27 18:53:42	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x058efc…
04-27 18:52:06	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	BUY	85	58¢	$50	0x988808…
04-27 18:51:34	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe8e7d5…
04-27 18:47:02	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	27	73¢	$19	0x668e9f…
04-27 18:44:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x51d9db…
04-27 18:25:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	68	96¢	$65	0xcf33a5…
04-21 14:32:38	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc181c1…
04-13 15:41:37	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x0b226e…
04-08 19:26:03	will the sp 500 spx open at 66006700 on april 8	Yes	BUY	578	0¢	$1	0x1f4da7…
04-08 19:25:09	will the sp 500 spx open at 67006800 on april 8	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe54a9d…
04-08 19:19:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	44	61¢	$27	0x435270…
04-08 19:18:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	44	62¢	$27	0xf8f701…
03-20 11:10:17	will charles hittler be the next mayor of arcis sur aube	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x9660db…
03-20 11:02:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0xbb83d9…
03-20 10:59:43	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x6d648a…
03-20 10:46:23	will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x2748ca…
03-20 10:45:59	ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by march 31 214	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xb4389b…
02-17 19:59:57	will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x6b654e…
02-17 19:54:41	will russia capture kostyantynivka by february 28	No	SELL	45	94¢	$42	0x1c6463…
02-04 20:56:11	Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$8	0x6f91b7…
01-31 19:12:30	Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,001	1¢	$9	0x301aac…
01-31 18:47:10	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x6b0938…
01-31 18:42:10	will russia capture kostyantynivka by january 31	No	SELL	92	99¢	$92	0x4825ee…
01-31 18:41:48	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x210093…
01-31 18:41:38	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 31	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x5066f7…
01-14 19:06:32	ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by march 31 214	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xf027b4…