Creative-Hearthside-Assurance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

47.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,078

lifetime

Volume

$2.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$29

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-09 13:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 46% $-21

Tech

1% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 148 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No		+29	$20	92¢	$27	+$7	06-09 13:35
Anthropic acquired before 2027?	Yes		+30	$2	5¢	$1	$-1	06-09 13:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1775654100	10	$45	74	0	+74	open	—	04-08 13:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	14	$30	40	45	-5	Up	$-7	05-06 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	3	$22	13	13	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 21:40
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-06 19:43
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	2	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	06-09 13:35
btc updown 15m 1776015000	7	$19	37	0	+37	open	—	04-12 17:41
eth updown 15m 1776396600	7	$18	28	0	+28	open	—	04-17 03:44
btc updown 15m 1775953800	4	$17	32	0	+32	open	—	04-12 00:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	3	$14	10	10	+0	Down	+$6	05-06 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	4	$12	15	5	+10	open	—	05-19 14:08
btc updown 15m 1775941200	3	$12	21	0	+21	open	—	04-11 21:05
btc updown 15m 1775880900	6	$11	27	0	+27	open	—	04-11 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	4	$11	20	0	+20	open	—	05-15 18:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	5	$11	10	5	+5	open	—	05-16 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	3	$10	15	0	+15	Down	$-0	05-08 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	4	$10	15	5	+10	open	—	05-16 07:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	2	$10	5	15	-10	open	—	05-17 12:04
btc updown 15m 1775880000	4	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	04-11 04:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	2	$10	19	0	+19	Down	$-10	05-13 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	2	$10	105	0	+105	open	—	05-14 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	3	$9	15	0	+15	Down	+$1	05-10 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	4	$9	17	0	+17	Down	+$3	05-10 14:44
btc updown 15m 1776014100	3	$9	20	0	+20	open	—	04-12 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	2	$8	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-10 21:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	3	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	05-02 10:40
btc updown 15m 1775952900	2	$8	16	0	+16	open	—	04-12 00:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	3	$8	10	0	+10	Up	$-3	05-11 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	5	$8	15	5	+10	open	—	05-22 05:10
btc updown 15m 1775684700	6	$8	38	0	+38	open	—	04-08 21:54
btc updown 15m 1776457800	2	$8	8	3	+5	open	—	04-17 20:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 13:35:36	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x4fabce…
06-09 13:34:16	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0xe10ec2…
06-09 13:32:58	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x219792…
06-05 14:57:24	btc updown 15m 1780670700	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb54f07…
06-05 14:39:07	btc updown 15m 1780669800	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x0b7b3b…
06-05 13:15:18	btc updown 15m 1780665300	Down	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x7b9346…
06-05 13:15:16	btc updown 15m 1780665300	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xbb44e2…
06-05 13:15:15	btc updown 15m 1780665300	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xcaab05…
06-05 12:54:30	btc updown 15m 1780663500	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x50fed1…
06-05 11:46:04	btc updown 15m 1780659900	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xc0a1ee…
06-05 11:46:04	btc updown 15m 1780659900	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2d4c59…
06-05 10:46:57	btc updown 15m 1780656300	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa14190…
06-05 09:17:21	btc updown 15m 1780650900	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1f532a…
06-05 08:49:46	btc updown 15m 1780649100	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x4817ef…
06-05 08:03:13	btc updown 15m 1780646400	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x21b2f8…
06-05 07:54:51	btc updown 15m 1780645500	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x581daf…
06-05 06:55:52	btc updown 15m 1780641900	Up	BUY	3	17¢	$1	0x9491bb…
06-05 04:30:03	btc updown 15m 1780633800	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xcc7746…
06-05 04:17:58	btc updown 15m 1780632900	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x30e9f4…
06-05 04:06:19	btc updown 15m 1780632000	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xa302aa…
06-05 03:46:43	btc updown 15m 1780631100	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xf8e6ad…
06-05 02:32:54	btc updown 15m 1780626600	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb87e5a…
06-05 01:55:51	btc updown 15m 1780623900	Up	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xa23d4d…
06-05 01:55:51	btc updown 15m 1780623900	Up	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x1daead…
06-05 01:36:58	btc updown 15m 1780623000	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd2637c…
06-05 01:17:15	btc updown 15m 1780622100	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x715b2e…
06-05 00:45:04	btc updown 15m 1780620300	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x1922a1…
06-05 00:30:10	btc updown 15m 1780619400	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x475a59…
06-05 00:27:34	btc updown 15m 1780618500	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb72330…
06-05 00:00:04	btc updown 15m 1780617600	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xbc2dc8…
06-04 23:30:09	btc updown 15m 1780615800	Down	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x93f7cc…
06-01 16:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0xf48a72…
06-01 15:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xb2c0d9…
06-01 14:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x5bc564…
06-01 14:41:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	64¢	$0	0x58de42…
06-01 13:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x25862c…
06-01 12:05:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdba325…
06-01 11:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x1565ee…
06-01 10:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$2	0x2c637c…
06-01 10:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf3ce4e…
06-01 10:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9fdf6a…
06-01 09:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x33396f…
06-01 06:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	58¢	$0	0xeac1b7…
06-01 06:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2717c1…
06-01 06:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd33376…
06-01 06:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x2e1a81…
06-01 05:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x4903bb…
06-01 04:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xbe9bbe…
06-01 04:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xed1e3a…
06-01 03:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x850eed…
06-01 03:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x242c6a…
06-01 02:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x01ad5f…
06-01 01:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0287fa…
06-01 01:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x9c126c…
06-01 01:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0xeee920…
06-01 01:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x59f4d1…
06-01 00:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x19f90b…
06-01 00:30:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xcaedb8…
06-01 00:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x854990…
06-01 00:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x3d4e41…
06-01 00:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x3ff0fa…
05-31 23:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x53e286…
05-31 20:47:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x7690d0…
05-31 20:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x048477…
05-31 19:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xd0c922…
05-31 19:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x8b209d…
05-31 19:21:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x73584d…
05-31 18:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x437e4e…
05-31 18:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x234584…
05-31 18:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x430b3c…
05-31 18:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0x07589e…
05-31 18:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2f6756…
05-31 17:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xb6001b…
05-31 17:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xc2dfbc…
05-27 05:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xe25f51…
05-27 04:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x115f01…
05-27 04:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xcb1c81…
05-27 04:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x512b30…
05-27 04:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa38078…
05-27 03:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x9ada72…
05-27 02:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xbc29ec…
05-27 02:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xbde48b…
05-27 02:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x5922cb…
05-27 02:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x1bf560…
05-27 02:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x34e554…
05-27 01:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x2ab17c…
05-27 01:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x647458…
05-27 01:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe16b98…
05-27 01:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x8decad…
05-27 00:46:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xca8e30…
05-27 00:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x6a53a8…
05-27 00:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x2e6955…
05-26 23:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x9221a6…
05-26 23:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0c362f…
05-26 22:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x81a16f…
05-26 22:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xcff579…
05-26 16:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0xf229f0…
05-26 16:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x6a2550…
05-26 15:46:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x546415…
05-26 15:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9dac84…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xd44e…b15e	775	$315.8K	108,280	06-05 14:59
Periodic-Setback 0x8e84…cb71	758	$1.30K	2,809	06-05 15:00
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	756	$160.1K	13,063	06-05 14:59
(anonymous) 0x912a…0f92	735	$107.5K	24,249	06-05 14:53
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	727	$313.3K	23,677	06-01 16:39
(anonymous) 0x4336…e51c	724	$1.05K	3,829	06-05 15:00
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	721	$148.7K	27,495	06-05 14:59
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	719	$271.4K	87,361	06-05 14:59