Abandoned-Caper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

4.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-03 09:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

90% — —

Other

9% 29% $-6

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No		+16	$15	96¢	$15	+$0	07-03 09:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	6	$3.1K	2,229	2,204	+25	open	—	03-08 09:44
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	20	$2.1K	1,940	2,240	-300	open	—	03-08 08:47
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$517	392	392	+0	open	—	03-08 09:38
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	14	$259	320	320	+0	Up	$-2	05-05 12:27
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	24	$129	211	211	+0	Up	$-0	05-05 06:16
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	2	$80	50	50	+0	Up	$-0	05-05 10:58
will base launch a token by december 31 2027	1	$25	36	0	+36	open	—	07-03 09:10
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	2	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	03-08 05:51
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$23	25	0	+25	open	—	03-09 02:38
Will JD Vance say "China" in Des Moines?	2	$22	19	19	+0	Yes	+$0	05-05 10:34
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$1	03-08 13:42
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	2	$18	23	0	+23	open	—	03-28 06:28
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	07-03 09:09
will ethereum dip to 1000 in july 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	07-03 09:09
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	01-15 03:41
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	01-15 03:46
Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	6	$9	55	55	+0	Yes	$-4	05-05 10:59
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 5?	2	$6	5	5	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 12:28
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	01-15 03:43
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 0 19	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	01-15 03:41
will base launch a token by june 30 2027	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	07-03 09:10
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	01-15 03:40
nfl sf sea 2026 01 17	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	01-15 03:42
nba was lac 2026 01 14	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	01-15 03:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 09:10:32	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xbfb316…
07-03 09:10:22	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xb6c155…
07-03 09:09:46	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xc795d2…
07-03 09:09:26	will ethereum dip to 1000 in july 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x1c5ba9…
05-05 12:28:30	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x37288f…
05-05 12:27:42	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	142	16¢	$23	0xa09dbb…
05-05 12:24:06	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x072f47…
05-05 12:09:00	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xc37bf6…
05-05 11:55:54	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x3eef38…
05-05 11:46:52	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0x923899…
05-05 11:41:56	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	91	19¢	$17	0x266e47…
05-05 11:37:36	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0x434dc3…
05-05 10:59:00	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	SELL	55	4¢	$2	0xf2d3b8…
05-05 10:58:32	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x6751f3…
05-05 10:49:02	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x0b7c62…
05-05 10:48:50	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x2682d8…
05-05 10:48:44	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x136678…
05-05 10:48:42	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x37c1e3…
05-05 10:48:38	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x409865…
05-05 10:43:06	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xe4bbde…
05-05 10:34:54	Will JD Vance say "China" in Des Moines?	Yes	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0xd5c89c…
05-05 08:48:14	Will JD Vance say "China" in Des Moines?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x193833…
05-05 06:55:18	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	45	70¢	$32	0x43b5bc…
05-05 06:42:56	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	34	69¢	$23	0x6d6fc0…
05-05 06:39:58	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	56	70¢	$39	0x1cd946…
05-05 06:31:22	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x0edfa3…
05-05 06:31:10	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x709d06…
05-05 06:27:34	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0xdd5846…
05-05 06:26:42	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	SELL	37	71¢	$27	0x19c0cb…
05-05 06:23:50	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0x282ff4…
05-05 06:16:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xa8f0fa…
05-05 06:16:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x9c0c93…
05-05 06:16:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x93ce33…
05-05 06:16:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x5db68f…
05-05 06:16:50	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x35f2fe…
05-05 06:16:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xd96909…
05-05 06:16:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xbb1611…
05-05 06:16:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xaf0e6c…
05-05 06:16:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x6b633f…
05-05 06:16:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xc33cb6…
05-05 06:16:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xb2f492…
05-05 06:16:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x59c029…
05-05 06:16:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0xef80a8…
05-05 06:16:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xa071b5…
05-05 06:16:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x71db39…
05-05 06:16:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x93d580…
05-05 06:16:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x613db1…
05-05 06:16:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x724639…
05-05 06:01:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0xd4780d…
05-05 06:01:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	31	30¢	$9	0xbe025f…
05-05 06:01:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xa75e26…
05-05 06:01:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	53	30¢	$16	0x44a51e…
05-05 05:53:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	SELL	99	31¢	$31	0x1399d5…
05-05 05:47:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	110	31¢	$34	0x2da7a5…
03-28 06:28:31	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	No	BUY	23	79¢	$18	0x494fad…
03-27 20:53:43	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x53d14f…
03-09 02:38:41	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x112398…
03-08 13:42:17	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xe63d85…
03-08 09:44:29	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	No	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0x589a9f…
03-08 09:38:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	363	66¢	$240	0xe9bb6c…
03-08 09:38:13	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0x6d4142…
03-08 09:37:41	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xc94e5b…
03-08 09:37:09	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x689632…
03-08 09:35:11	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	392	66¢	$258	0xe6585b…
03-08 08:47:27	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,032	46¢	$478	0x8b83b9…
03-08 08:29:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x534a63…
03-08 08:26:17	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	49	52¢	$25	0x8f71f1…
03-08 08:25:03	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	111	52¢	$58	0xa81ec3…
03-08 08:20:15	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xf20a94…
03-08 08:17:45	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xbe5ecc…
03-08 08:16:53	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	No	SELL	2,204	70¢	$1,543	0x44c074…
03-08 08:16:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xe84753…
03-08 08:15:39	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x619369…
03-08 08:15:31	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3402ec…
03-08 08:15:25	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	No	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0x8e39c7…
03-08 08:15:13	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	No	BUY	1,974	70¢	$1,382	0x765732…
03-08 08:12:47	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	86	52¢	$45	0xf21175…
03-08 08:10:53	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,036	51¢	$528	0xdd7577…
03-08 08:03:09	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	29	52¢	$15	0xc040f2…
03-08 07:58:05	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	17	52¢	$9	0x793d1f…
03-08 07:56:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0x5e23aa…
03-08 07:53:29	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0xa7b2ba…
03-08 07:47:29	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xcee34b…
03-08 07:44:57	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x085189…
03-08 07:44:27	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x169db4…
03-08 07:44:23	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	442	52¢	$230	0x6b5660…
03-08 07:41:43	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	500	52¢	$260	0x419baf…
03-08 07:37:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	404	52¢	$210	0x3293a5…
03-08 07:32:01	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	404	52¢	$210	0x70296c…
03-08 05:51:21	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$12	0x35a5d2…
01-15 03:46:20	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x5e11d6…
01-15 03:44:22	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x80acb1…
01-15 03:43:48	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xd5b54e…
01-15 03:43:12	nba was lac 2026 01 14	Clippers	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x2371e9…
01-15 03:42:42	nfl sf sea 2026 01 17	Seahawks	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd90220…
01-15 03:41:28	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x94bbf5…
01-15 03:41:14	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 0 19	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x533afb…
01-15 03:40:52	us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb0ec17…
01-15 03:35:56	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xb7d89b…