Bitter-Lesson — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.5%

Resolved

Trades

487

lifetime

Volume

$2.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 07-02 14:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 59% +$3

Other

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down on february 1	6	$428	252	252	+0	open	—	02-01 15:47
will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 30	2	$197	123	123	+0	open	—	01-30 20:03
bitcoin up or down on february 2	5	$134	163	90	+73	open	—	02-02 13:55
bitcoin up or down on january 21	3	$133	69	69	+0	open	—	01-21 17:03
bitcoin up or down on february 4	4	$115	89	89	+0	open	—	02-04 14:57
bitcoin up or down on february 5	2	$55	39	39	+0	open	—	02-05 09:37
bitcoin up or down on january 27	2	$48	29	29	+0	open	—	01-27 16:54
bitcoin up or down on february 6	3	$47	37	30	+7	open	—	02-06 10:52
bitcoin up or down on january 25	3	$47	55	9	+47	open	—	01-25 14:11
bitcoin up or down on january 24	2	$45	58	0	+58	open	—	01-24 15:31
will the price of bitcoin be less than 78000 on february 2	2	$43	39	39	+0	open	—	02-01 16:41
bitcoin up or down on february 7	3	$42	54	40	+14	open	—	02-06 22:07
btc updown 15m 1770407100	4	$39	48	23	+25	open	—	02-06 19:54
will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on february 1	2	$30	59	59	+0	open	—	01-31 18:27
bitcoin up or down on january 29	2	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	01-29 08:11
btc updown 15m 1769970600	3	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	02-01 18:45
btc updown 15m 1770404400	4	$24	18	17	+1	open	—	02-06 19:14
btc updown 15m 1770410700	4	$24	19	19	+0	open	—	02-06 20:56
bitcoin up or down on february 3	1	$20	35	0	+35	open	—	02-02 17:49
bitcoin up or down on january 31	1	$20	34	0	+34	open	—	01-31 10:40
btc updown 15m 1770408000	3	$19	46	13	+34	open	—	02-06 20:12
bitcoin up or down on january 28	1	$19	0	20	-20	open	—	01-28 15:46
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 2	2	$18	37	37	+0	open	—	02-01 16:25
btc updown 15m 1770408900	5	$17	33	12	+20	open	—	02-06 20:28
btc updown 15m 1770412500	3	$15	21	9	+11	open	—	02-06 21:22
btc updown 15m 1770414300	4	$15	31	9	+22	open	—	02-06 21:59
btc updown 15m 1769971500	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	02-01 19:00
btc updown 15m 1770405300	2	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	02-06 19:20
btc updown 15m 1769972400	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	02-01 19:16
bitcoin up or down on january 22	2	$11	32	0	+32	open	—	01-21 18:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 14:32:32	btc updown 15m 1783002600	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xdac903…
07-02 13:52:19	btc updown 5m 1783000200	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb86752…
07-02 13:46:37	btc updown 5m 1782999900	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x5e2d27…
07-02 09:51:01	btc updown 15m 1782985500	Up	SELL	8	31¢	$3	0x4212f2…
07-02 09:47:25	btc updown 15m 1782985500	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xc3dff3…
07-02 09:35:44	btc updown 5m 1782984900	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe2b7af…
06-30 13:22:01	btc updown 5m 1782825600	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6a6242…
06-30 13:16:31	btc updown 5m 1782825300	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xdaeea1…
06-30 11:31:20	btc updown 15m 1782819000	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdd4676…
06-30 09:02:40	btc updown 5m 1782810000	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x467c08…
06-30 09:01:32	btc updown 5m 1782810000	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x0e890e…
06-30 08:51:38	btc updown 5m 1782809400	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xefcc00…
06-29 11:26:55	btc updown 5m 1782732300	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x25806e…
06-29 11:25:55	btc updown 5m 1782732300	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9e22d6…
06-27 20:01:41	btc updown 5m 1782590400	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xee50a0…
06-25 14:20:44	btc updown 5m 1782397200	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xbbeb93…
06-25 14:20:41	btc updown 15m 1782396900	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x92c35f…
06-24 17:01:40	btc updown 15m 1782320400	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xc74de2…
06-24 16:55:59	btc updown 5m 1782320100	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xac16c0…
06-24 14:31:01	btc updown 5m 1782311400	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x292fcb…
06-24 01:12:17	btc updown 15m 1782262800	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x160268…
06-24 01:11:34	btc updown 15m 1782262800	Up	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0xdc416c…
06-24 01:05:43	btc updown 15m 1782262800	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x7247ab…
06-23 14:16:11	btc updown 15m 1782224100	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xd693bb…
06-23 08:46:58	btc updown 15m 1782204300	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xbaa0a9…
06-23 08:26:11	btc updown 5m 1782203100	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xed7f12…
06-23 08:15:47	btc updown 15m 1782202500	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb4a066…
06-22 22:45:53	btc updown 5m 1782168300	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4950bc…
06-22 22:21:41	btc updown 15m 1782166500	Up	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x301734…
06-22 22:20:58	btc updown 15m 1782166500	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc7d8dd…
06-22 18:50:04	btc updown 15m 1782153900	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb6f671…
06-22 11:48:02	btc updown 15m 1782128700	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa9d12b…
06-21 20:49:20	btc updown 15m 1782074700	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xc3ef47…
06-21 18:59:47	btc updown 15m 1782067500	Up	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x8e1a73…
06-21 18:56:13	btc updown 15m 1782067500	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0d2d07…
06-20 20:05:47	btc updown 5m 1781985900	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xbe987a…
06-19 14:45:43	btc updown 5m 1781880300	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x73f354…
06-19 13:14:49	btc updown 15m 1781874000	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x63bc27…
06-19 13:01:40	btc updown 15m 1781874000	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xabdada…
06-19 12:21:46	btc updown 15m 1781871300	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5f8405…
06-18 20:34:46	btc updown 5m 1781814600	Down	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x32a596…
06-18 20:33:11	btc updown 5m 1781814600	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x21304d…
06-18 15:51:11	btc updown 5m 1781797800	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa6aef1…
06-18 13:27:11	btc updown 5m 1781789100	Down	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xc2bf76…
06-18 13:26:16	btc updown 5m 1781789100	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0523df…
06-18 09:41:40	btc updown 5m 1781775600	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x911ac6…
06-18 09:32:59	btc updown 15m 1781775000	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xf43a78…
06-18 08:31:41	btc updown 5m 1781771400	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x90d656…
06-17 16:01:05	btc updown 15m 1781712000	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x50e13e…
06-17 12:31:13	btc updown 5m 1781699400	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf13c96…
06-17 09:10:55	btc updown 5m 1781687400	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xcc77c8…
06-17 08:56:05	btc updown 5m 1781686500	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf54101…
06-17 08:31:31	btc updown 15m 1781685000	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe0fee8…
06-17 08:25:02	btc updown 15m 1781684100	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x178740…
06-16 13:36:55	btc updown 5m 1781616900	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x81329f…
06-16 13:32:44	btc updown 15m 1781616600	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xd6da53…
06-15 13:13:01	btc updown 5m 1781529000	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc5b628…
06-15 12:46:22	btc updown 15m 1781527500	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe17d93…
06-15 11:31:10	btc updown 15m 1781523000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfc6be1…
06-14 17:11:12	btc updown 15m 1781456400	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x4f8c44…
06-10 13:51:46	btc updown 5m 1781099400	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x159061…
06-10 12:46:34	btc updown 15m 1781095500	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe09ef2…
06-10 10:38:49	btc updown 5m 1781087700	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xdb265d…
06-10 10:36:33	btc updown 5m 1781087700	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x624663…
06-09 15:31:54	btc updown 15m 1781019000	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc1a3a2…
06-09 14:52:51	btc updown 15m 1781016300	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x53b7e5…
06-09 14:46:58	btc updown 15m 1781016300	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x09d260…
06-09 14:33:58	btc updown 5m 1781015400	Up	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0xf7e6d8…
06-09 14:30:39	btc updown 5m 1781015400	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xace24b…
06-09 14:27:58	btc updown 5m 1781015100	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xea902c…
06-09 14:26:30	btc updown 5m 1781015100	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x8f0586…
06-09 14:25:52	btc updown 5m 1781015100	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x451a5f…
06-09 14:21:15	btc updown 5m 1781014800	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5d9d2d…
06-09 14:06:22	btc updown 5m 1781013900	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x604408…
06-09 13:20:30	btc updown 15m 1781010900	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7b6556…
06-09 11:16:21	btc updown 15m 1781003700	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x65e042…
06-09 09:11:37	btc updown 5m 1780996200	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb93331…
06-09 08:17:03	btc updown 15m 1780992900	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x0125df…
06-05 19:10:54	btc updown 5m 1780686600	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf89020…
06-05 19:06:04	btc updown 5m 1780686300	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x81e9c8…
06-05 14:35:52	btc updown 15m 1780669800	Up	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x631895…
06-05 14:32:07	btc updown 15m 1780669800	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x2b222d…
06-04 18:56:57	btc updown 5m 1780599300	Down	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0xddff36…
06-04 18:56:22	btc updown 5m 1780599300	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x56ca29…
06-04 18:47:58	btc updown 5m 1780598700	Up	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x7e8658…
06-04 18:46:30	btc updown 5m 1780598700	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xfbd568…
06-04 11:11:03	btc updown 5m 1780571400	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x88eec7…
06-04 10:15:55	btc updown 5m 1780568100	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xc87952…
06-04 09:50:54	btc updown 5m 1780566600	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x8ef2ee…
06-04 09:36:33	btc updown 5m 1780565700	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd9b673…
06-04 09:23:19	btc updown 15m 1780564500	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x03e5d2…
06-04 09:16:27	btc updown 5m 1780564500	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x56daec…
06-03 20:47:45	btc updown 15m 1780519500	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbb280f…
06-03 20:36:48	btc updown 15m 1780518600	Up	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x8db8ad…
06-03 20:36:12	btc updown 15m 1780518600	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd4add1…
06-03 20:22:33	btc updown 15m 1780517700	Up	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x161c56…
06-03 20:17:40	btc updown 15m 1780517700	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc389e7…
06-03 20:16:31	btc updown 5m 1780517700	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9fef05…
06-03 20:00:46	btc updown 5m 1780516800	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4f1e53…
06-02 20:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xebedaf…