Firsthand-Lag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

Trades

156

lifetime

Volume

$1.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 05-17 06:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

73% — —

Crypto

24% 41% +$17

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$679	545	545	+0	open	—	05-15 06:27
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$220	746	0	+746	open	—	05-17 06:43
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$111	148	0	+148	open	—	05-16 06:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	4	$60	85	0	+85	Up	+$25	05-09 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	9	$45	41	40	+0	Up	+$15	05-11 17:34
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	3	$41	26	16	+10	open	—	05-16 06:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	8	$24	45	0	+45	Up	+$21	05-11 17:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	9	$18	36	0	+36	Up	+$18	05-11 17:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	8	$16	33	0	+33	Down	$-16	05-11 17:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	8	$16	30	0	+30	Up	+$14	05-11 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	8	$15	160	0	+160	Up	$-15	05-11 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	7	$13	27	0	+27	Down	+$14	05-11 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	6	$12	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 06:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	5	$10	35	0	+35	Down	$-10	05-11 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	5	$10	21	0	+21	Down	$-10	05-11 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	5	$10	16	0	+16	Down	$-10	05-11 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	3	$9	15	0	+15	Up	$-9	05-11 17:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	4	$8	20	0	+20	Down	$-8	05-11 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	4	$8	13	0	+13	Up	+$5	05-11 17:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	4	$8	20	0	+20	Up	+$12	05-11 18:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	3	$6	17	0	+17	Down	$-6	05-11 16:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	3	$5	12	0	+12	Up	$-5	05-11 18:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	4	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$-5	05-11 19:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$4	17	0	+17	Down	$-4	05-11 16:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	4	$4	72	0	+72	open	—	05-15 06:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	4	$4	21	0	+21	open	—	05-15 06:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	Down	$-3	05-11 18:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	1	$3	9	0	+9	open	—	05-15 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$2	5	0	+5	Down	$-2	05-11 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	2	$2	103	0	+103	Down	$-2	05-11 16:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 06:43:21	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	82	2¢	$2	0xf8eed1…
05-16 06:58:06	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x22bc54…
05-16 06:56:58	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x04113a…
05-16 06:56:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x526892…
05-16 06:55:58	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	335	3¢	$11	0x35c441…
05-16 06:55:42	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xdc56e1…
05-16 06:55:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xa24acf…
05-16 06:53:52	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xb781a2…
05-15 07:00:35	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	129	81¢	$104	0xd87389…
05-15 06:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x9bfd88…
05-15 06:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xdddc5d…
05-15 06:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x9ec3da…
05-15 06:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xee55bc…
05-15 06:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xb26826…
05-15 06:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x9fb610…
05-15 06:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x5ea7f5…
05-15 06:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x49015f…
05-15 06:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xda6692…
05-15 06:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x11f652…
05-15 06:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x17b398…
05-15 06:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xcc2243…
05-15 06:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4c9a20…
05-15 06:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc913d7…
05-15 06:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x00ced9…
05-15 06:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6edc65…
05-15 06:27:01	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	349	4¢	$14	0x45d228…
05-15 06:25:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xfe4ca6…
05-15 06:11:25	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	197	92¢	$182	0x9d8037…
05-15 05:35:17	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	197	90¢	$177	0xcfc192…
05-15 05:24:29	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x253607…
05-15 05:17:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc8e4f5…
05-13 17:58:51	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	349	88¢	$307	0x129dfc…
05-11 19:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xc66114…
05-11 19:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd225ba…
05-11 19:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x211fed…
05-11 19:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x17246a…
05-11 18:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x3d453c…
05-11 18:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x5a92ac…
05-11 18:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa424fb…
05-11 18:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x0d9fcf…
05-11 18:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb14bcb…
05-11 18:43:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc49f9f…
05-11 18:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x055e60…
05-11 18:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x190e39…
05-11 18:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x059244…
05-11 18:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x38c523…
05-11 18:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc93222…
05-11 18:25:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x749133…
05-11 18:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3bbc8c…
05-11 18:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x90fd89…
05-11 18:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x618379…
05-11 18:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x35dcb0…
05-11 18:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x552a84…
05-11 18:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xcfa9cd…
05-11 18:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7431e3…
05-11 18:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x858e9a…
05-11 18:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x571729…
05-11 18:15:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xc684bf…
05-11 18:13:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x4fc9af…
05-11 18:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x11a4ba…
05-11 18:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x766425…
05-11 18:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xe63092…
05-11 18:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x79c8ba…
05-11 18:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xca1189…
05-11 17:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa1bd7e…
05-11 17:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x59dfa0…
05-11 17:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x3f41f1…
05-11 17:54:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc95e24…
05-11 17:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x1f6f1e…
05-11 17:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x423f0d…
05-11 17:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xa8e637…
05-11 17:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x3b91d2…
05-11 17:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd01a8e…
05-11 17:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xf59a32…
05-11 17:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x038003…
05-11 17:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xff56da…
05-11 17:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5abb90…
05-11 17:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xc8b7d6…
05-11 17:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x9d25a2…
05-11 17:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xffd854…
05-11 17:39:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x68ac08…
05-11 17:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x795421…
05-11 17:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xb45e4b…
05-11 17:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x87f1ba…
05-11 17:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x69235d…
05-11 17:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0x89c6b1…
05-11 17:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x42c4c7…
05-11 17:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x603f5d…
05-11 17:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc66f11…
05-11 17:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5d1bac…
05-11 17:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x12c240…
05-11 17:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x241e34…
05-11 17:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xe1eb7c…
05-11 17:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x7fc268…
05-11 17:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x18c8ff…
05-11 17:26:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xfb2c41…
05-11 17:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xd4921d…
05-11 17:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x670a90…
05-11 17:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xfacaeb…
05-11 17:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x1957ff…