Lanky-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$33

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 06-10 20:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

61% 67% $-0

Politics

16% — —

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No		+1	$1	92¢	$1	$-0	06-10 20:09
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No		+1	$1	70¢	$1	$-0	06-10 20:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar	1	$4	7	+7	open	—	04-25 21:16
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	1	$2	3	+3	open	—	01-31 13:16
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz	1	$2	3	+3	open	—	05-25 10:21
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar	1	$2	2	+2	Rafael Jodar	+$0	05-10 19:36
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	open	—	05-28 19:34
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-26 19:43
wta cirstea raducan 2026 06 10	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	06-10 20:08
atp shelton sinner 2026 01 28	1	$1	10	+10	open	—	01-27 20:03
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	1	$1	3	+3	open	—	02-01 21:56
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane	1	$1	2	+2	Terence Atmane	$-1	05-06 22:37
atp musetti djokovi 2026 01 28	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	01-27 20:03
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-30 21:50
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev	1	$1	1	+1	Daniil Medvedev	+$0	05-11 15:28
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	06-10 20:09
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	1	$1	16	+16	open	—	02-01 21:57
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 2	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	02-01 21:55
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-18 20:00
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	1	$1	4	+4	open	—	02-01 21:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	04-25 21:20
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	02-01 21:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	05-18 20:02
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	02-01 21:55
will partido socialista obrero espaol psoe win the 2026 aragon regional election 186	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	02-01 21:58
will partido popular pp win the 2026 aragon regional election 724	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	02-01 21:58
atp hijikat tiafoe 2026 06 11	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	06-10 20:07
atp shimabu kyrgios 2026 06 11	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	06-10 20:07
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$1	1	+1	open	—	06-10 20:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 20:09:58	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x0c9d23…
06-10 20:09:24	Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa0696d…
06-10 20:08:22	wta cirstea raducan 2026 06 10	Emma Raducanu	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc54c92…
06-10 20:07:36	atp hijikat tiafoe 2026 06 11	Frances Tiafoe	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2f859f…
06-10 20:07:09	atp shimabu kyrgios 2026 06 11	Nick Kyrgios	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf29c8e…
05-30 21:50:24	Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd42599…
05-28 19:34:17	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xd88ae4…
05-26 19:43:59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0xbf35cd…
05-25 10:21:06	Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x59b41b…
05-18 20:02:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5d573a…
05-18 20:00:16	Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xcae940…
05-11 15:28:17	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x50cb38…
05-10 19:36:16	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x2c140a…
05-06 22:37:17	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane	Zizou Bergs	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x0bea1d…
04-25 21:20:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x04e1b8…
04-25 21:16:00	Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x743970…
02-01 21:58:34	will partido popular pp win the 2026 aragon regional election 724	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf9d52d…
02-01 21:58:26	will partido socialista obrero espaol psoe win the 2026 aragon regional election 186	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x69661b…
02-01 21:57:32	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x37ef0c…
02-01 21:57:06	moltbook shutdown by feb 28	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xced08d…
02-01 21:56:50	moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbbc0d8…
02-01 21:56:18	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9da50b…
02-01 21:55:42	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 2	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xc7a4bc…
02-01 21:55:28	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x200b80…
01-31 13:16:16	atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	Alcaraz	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x6f02c2…
01-27 20:03:57	atp musetti djokovi 2026 01 28	Djokovic	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x04267f…
01-27 20:03:43	atp shelton sinner 2026 01 28	Shelton	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x68da52…