Reliable-Reluctance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.8%

Resolved

Trades

160

lifetime

Volume

$1.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 05-16 20:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 64% +$15

Other

12% — —

Politics

6% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	6	$117	84	84	+0	Up	+$7	05-10 15:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$107	67	67	+0	Down	+$7	05-10 18:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	6	$90	130	37	+93	Up	$-30	05-10 21:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	5	$87	59	33	+26	open	—	05-14 12:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	16	$81	68	68	+0	Down	+$1	05-10 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	2	$73	53	53	+0	Up	+$23	05-10 22:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	2	$67	45	45	+0	open	—	05-14 20:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	4	$61	35	35	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 22:01
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	2	$52	233	233	+0	open	—	04-26 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	2	$51	35	35	+0	Down	+$1	05-10 22:21
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	1	$50	239	0	+239	open	—	04-23 20:52
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$50	71	0	+71	open	—	03-04 06:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	8	$45	41	31	+9	Up	$-5	05-10 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$35	57	11	+45	open	—	05-14 20:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$30	117	0	+117	open	—	02-28 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	7	$26	29	16	+14	open	—	04-26 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$25	51	0	+51	open	—	05-14 11:55
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	1	$25	69	0	+69	open	—	03-05 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	1	$25	56	0	+56	Up	+$31	05-10 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	1	$25	36	0	+36	open	—	05-14 21:00
will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	1	$25	362	0	+362	open	—	03-09 21:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	1	$25	66	0	+66	open	—	05-14 20:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$25	51	0	+51	Up	+$26	05-10 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$25	48	0	+48	Up	$-25	05-10 22:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	1	$25	34	0	+34	Up	$-25	05-10 16:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	3	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	05-14 20:52
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	1	$20	80	0	+80	open	—	02-27 21:33
pzza quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 26 2026 0pt33	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	02-19 21:02
sol updown 5m 1772662200	3	$17	22	8	+13	open	—	03-04 22:11
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 15	1	$15	41	0	+41	open	—	03-05 23:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 20:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xce6bc2…
05-15 06:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x1d547f…
05-14 21:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x7f1eca…
05-14 20:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x7f2db9…
05-14 20:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x598c4c…
05-14 20:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd6da3c…
05-14 20:52:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x2d6f75…
05-14 20:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcbccbd…
05-14 20:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xf5f824…
05-14 20:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	45	92¢	$42	0x6c8ff5…
05-14 20:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x0cd868…
05-14 20:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x1ba89e…
05-14 20:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3bd307…
05-14 20:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3a00d6…
05-14 12:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x8030ab…
05-14 12:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0xab3158…
05-14 12:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x790973…
05-14 12:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0xbbb24c…
05-14 12:02:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x18480f…
05-14 11:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xd07eec…
05-14 11:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x258d78…
05-14 11:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x50d6a0…
05-10 22:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	35	74¢	$26	0x983fe4…
05-10 22:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x605731…
05-10 22:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0xf7c80d…
05-10 22:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	53	90¢	$48	0x10a664…
05-10 22:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x008ca5…
05-10 22:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xf8c65f…
05-10 22:01:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xde0358…
05-10 22:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdbd37a…
05-10 22:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x8780df…
05-10 22:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xdf6769…
05-10 21:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd863b7…
05-10 21:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	31	85¢	$27	0xb81bb4…
05-10 21:46:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x950487…
05-10 21:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd0459e…
05-10 21:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xb9af83…
05-10 21:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0xabf2a6…
05-10 21:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xaecae0…
05-10 21:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x886fa5…
05-10 21:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0xad01bd…
05-10 21:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb74c78…
05-10 18:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	67	85¢	$57	0xaac343…
05-10 18:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x6e447c…
05-10 18:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x13ddcb…
05-10 18:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xafabf3…
05-10 18:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x925386…
05-10 18:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xc122de…
05-10 18:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd8e0b0…
05-10 16:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x8f2fe9…
05-10 16:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xbaf7b6…
05-10 16:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x11f01c…
05-10 16:03:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0xf51795…
05-10 16:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xa57eaa…
05-10 16:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x6806c0…
05-10 16:01:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x6207f4…
05-10 16:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x675b1b…
05-10 16:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xc09640…
05-10 16:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x6e64fa…
05-10 15:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xc1ab26…
05-10 15:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5fe112…
05-10 15:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	35	84¢	$29	0x7c5cbc…
05-10 15:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x330ed6…
05-10 15:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	43	65¢	$28	0x016841…
05-10 15:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xaabd0d…
05-10 15:54:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x4bf969…
05-10 15:54:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x29412e…
05-10 15:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	16	45¢	$7	0xd3207d…
05-10 15:54:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xd9368e…
05-10 15:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xf16204…
05-10 15:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xdd86ad…
05-10 15:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xa6da93…
05-10 15:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x8811e4…
05-10 15:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x839110…
05-10 15:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x9dc39a…
05-10 15:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0xab270f…
05-10 15:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x947b75…
05-10 15:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0xe707bd…
05-10 15:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xad5296…
05-10 15:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x65b2b6…
05-10 15:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb7a7a6…
05-09 21:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xdcec45…
05-09 21:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x1a56e3…
05-09 21:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x97b91a…
05-09 21:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xceb3cf…
05-09 21:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xafd6f3…
05-09 11:34:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x554819…
05-08 06:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x68a8e6…
05-02 23:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xf0c31b…
05-02 23:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x46fd29…
05-02 23:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xfac563…
05-02 23:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6321a1…
05-02 23:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5a502e…
05-02 23:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x79ceef…
05-02 23:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x8b748f…
05-02 23:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x628aea…
05-02 23:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x75cdd7…
05-02 23:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xab4d6d…
05-02 23:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x00e0f6…
05-02 23:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x351576…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	49	$7.36K	3,548	05-16 20:29
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	46	$23.0K	1,897	05-16 20:25
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	45	$49.2K	1,399	05-16 20:30
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	45	$19.5K	223	05-16 20:29
(anonymous) 0x4c94…ffad	44	$9.53K	2,942	05-16 20:29
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	43	$26.9K	4,608	05-16 20:29
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	43	$10.7K	369	05-16 20:27
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	43	$10.4K	672	05-16 20:29