Elastic-Modification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$332

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-15 19:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

70% 50% $-2

Politics

26% 100% +$22

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-13	$-1	4¢	$-0	+$0	06-15 19:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	5	$44	36	36	+0	Yes	+$22	05-11 11:11
ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1	2	$34	29	29	+0	open	—	03-17 22:36
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	2	$30	0	31	-31	open	—	06-14 15:09
ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 psg1	2	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	03-17 22:36
ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	1	$17	23	0	+23	open	—	03-17 22:52
ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 atm1	1	$15	39	0	+39	open	—	03-17 22:50
uel rom1 bol1 2026 03 19 rom1	2	$15	29	0	+29	open	—	03-19 20:36
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$10	91	0	+91	open	—	01-06 22:08
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$10	53	0	+53	open	—	03-25 18:08
ucl liv1 gal 2026 03 18 draw	1	$10	67	0	+67	open	—	03-17 22:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$9	165	165	+0	open	—	03-11 17:41
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$9	27	27	+0	open	—	03-10 07:52
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	1	$8	20	0	+20	open	—	01-09 22:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	03-17 22:43
will the price of bitcoin be between 92000 94000 on january 7	1	$7	17	0	+17	open	—	01-06 22:21
will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	2	$7	12	0	+12	open	—	03-05 10:28
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	06-14 15:03
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	2	$5	13	13	+0	open	—	05-28 09:15
uel scf gnk 2026 03 19 scf	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	03-19 13:59
btc updown 5m 1772384100	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	03-01 16:58
bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	04-19 15:43
spx up or down on march 4 2026	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	03-03 21:31
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	03-11 17:44
ucl spo1 bog1 2026 03 17 bog1	1	$5	28	0	+28	open	—	03-17 13:05
col mai sig 2026 03 19 mai	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	03-19 14:00
col aek cry 2026 03 19 cry	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	03-19 13:59
ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	03-17 13:06
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$3	9	9	+0	open	—	05-28 09:16
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer	1	$3	7	0	+7	No	$-3	05-06 11:57
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	1	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	03-30 08:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 19:52:37	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x935915…
06-14 15:09:16	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc3735f…
06-14 15:06:15	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x513f4c…
06-14 15:03:21	Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x151f20…
05-28 09:16:51	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0x05ce9e…
05-28 09:15:32	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xde60c4…
05-25 09:03:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0xde9553…
05-11 11:11:42	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$22	0x3f3e09…
05-06 11:57:42	Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x83ac25…
05-06 11:56:14	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Viktorija Golubic vs Federica Urgesi	Viktorija Golubic	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x74e270…
05-03 09:17:36	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0x24737f…
04-19 15:45:54	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb4af37…
04-19 15:43:38	bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x2262e8…
04-19 15:40:00	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 ars	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xb9d80a…
03-30 08:42:04	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x55345a…
03-25 18:08:35	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x3565b9…
03-19 20:36:31	uel rom1 bol1 2026 03 19 rom1	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x6ecc51…
03-19 14:00:09	col mai sig 2026 03 19 mai	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x8f1ccc…
03-19 13:59:35	col aek cry 2026 03 19 cry	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x2b8e44…
03-19 13:59:09	uel scf gnk 2026 03 19 scf	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x5d26bb…
03-19 13:58:31	uel rom1 bol1 2026 03 19 rom1	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc2dfaf…
03-17 22:52:11	ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	Yes	BUY	23	73¢	$17	0x79f682…
03-17 22:50:17	ucl tot atm1 2026 03 18 atm1	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0xaabefb…
03-17 22:48:57	ucl liv1 gal 2026 03 18 draw	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0xaf6816…
03-17 22:43:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x897753…
03-17 22:36:57	ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xfb543a…
03-17 22:36:17	ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 psg1	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7fddd9…
03-17 13:06:43	ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x9e73f3…
03-17 13:06:21	ucl cfc1 psg1 2026 03 17 psg1	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xc56d47…
03-17 13:05:37	ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x84f7ae…
03-17 13:05:25	ucl spo1 bog1 2026 03 17 bog1	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xcf4239…
03-15 13:06:49	epl liv tot 2026 03 15 tot	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xa92828…
03-11 17:44:07	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xf394c5…
03-11 17:41:51	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	SELL	165	0¢	$0	0x150f89…
03-10 07:53:29	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xba2b25…
03-10 07:52:13	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0x07efa4…
03-09 20:34:17	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x477f7b…
03-09 20:20:03	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	146	3¢	$5	0xf1455c…
03-05 10:32:47	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x2dff62…
03-05 10:28:09	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xd3693e…
03-03 21:31:57	spx up or down on march 4 2026	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb72c1c…
03-01 17:07:41	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x90fd3c…
03-01 17:00:57	epl ars che 2026 03 01 che	Yes	BUY	26	6¢	$2	0x668589…
03-01 16:58:51	btc updown 5m 1772384100	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x9b53fa…
03-01 16:57:43	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xa4c623…
03-01 12:18:05	epl ars che 2026 03 01 draw	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x2837fa…
01-09 22:51:08	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xb8fd72…
01-09 22:29:00	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	27	31¢	$8	0x733e6e…
01-09 22:27:18	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$8	0xfd6c23…
01-06 22:22:55	will the price of ethereum be between 3300 3400 on january 7	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x9dbbe6…
01-06 22:21:37	will the price of bitcoin be between 92000 94000 on january 7	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x685195…
01-06 22:11:23	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xb94eb4…
01-06 22:08:27	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x78c206…