Muffled-Duck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$173

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.2%

Resolved

441

Trades

1,692

lifetime

Volume

$11.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 05-20 19:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

52% — —

Crypto

44% 46% $-173

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	20	$2.6K	4,731	4,731	+0	open	—	04-09 16:34
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	11	$1.9K	2,065	2,065	+0	open	—	03-20 12:54
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	5	$1.5K	2,676	0	+2,676	open	—	03-30 21:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	10	$518	10,825	6,766	+4,060	open	—	03-22 20:11
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$191	653	0	+653	open	—	03-30 21:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	4	$31	22	22	+0	Up	+$12	05-09 17:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	2	$29	67	67	+0	open	—	05-19 06:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$23	24	24	+0	Up	+$14	05-08 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	5	$23	56	8	+48	Down	$-13	05-09 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	2	$20	25	25	+0	open	—	05-20 08:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	2	$20	15	15	+0	Down	+$10	05-08 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	2	$19	29	29	+0	open	—	05-01 17:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	4	$18	39	11	+28	open	—	05-17 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$17	28	28	+0	Up	+$6	05-08 19:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$16	25	25	+0	open	—	05-18 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	2	$16	19	19	+0	open	—	05-19 06:44
btc updown 5m 1776000600	3	$15	12	12	+1	open	—	04-12 13:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$15	33	33	+0	open	—	05-01 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$15	17	17	+0	open	—	05-17 18:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	05-08 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	2	$14	17	17	+0	open	—	05-17 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	4	$14	36	36	+0	open	—	05-17 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$14	19	19	+0	Up	+$4	05-08 18:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$14	18	18	+0	Down	+$5	05-05 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$14	12	12	+0	open	—	05-18 16:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	2	$14	15	15	+0	open	—	05-04 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$14	24	24	+0	Down	+$5	05-06 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$5	05-05 18:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	2	$14	13	13	+0	open	—	05-17 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	2	$13	16	16	+0	Up	+$4	05-06 07:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 19:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xeebb61…
05-20 19:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xa655cb…
05-20 19:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x0593f5…
05-20 13:27:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x4a337b…
05-20 13:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x8df5cd…
05-20 13:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xe9a82d…
05-20 12:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x86afff…
05-20 12:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xcfd56c…
05-20 12:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x950f1d…
05-20 12:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x1aa65f…
05-20 12:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xf3fd49…
05-20 12:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x664739…
05-20 12:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	29¢	$2	0x5d88c6…
05-20 12:27:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	25	14¢	$4	0xfb3537…
05-20 12:26:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x6783c3…
05-20 12:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	28	9¢	$2	0x9ae737…
05-20 12:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xe24536…
05-20 12:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	9	59¢	$5	0x5da58a…
05-20 12:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	29¢	$2	0x1fd732…
05-20 11:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x12b994…
05-20 11:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0x8d2308…
05-20 11:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x303afb…
05-20 11:34:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x0f38b1…
05-20 11:33:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$2	0x99d636…
05-20 11:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x26593c…
05-20 11:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x3b47e2…
05-20 11:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	35	2¢	$1	0xad5ab6…
05-20 11:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x4a809d…
05-20 11:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x83a2df…
05-20 11:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x6b95cf…
05-20 11:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x2250de…
05-20 11:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	33¢	$2	0x1f441f…
05-20 11:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x152b39…
05-20 11:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0xe0f4f5…
05-20 11:00:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xab25be…
05-20 10:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$2	0x507ba9…
05-20 10:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	8	59¢	$4	0xb6b8d7…
05-20 10:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x33350f…
05-20 10:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x146ca1…
05-20 10:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$2	0x91f38e…
05-20 10:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x9d4dd0…
05-20 10:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0xf5eacb…
05-20 10:25:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x1d5825…
05-20 10:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x1f3999…
05-20 10:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xb50a28…
05-20 10:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x6deacf…
05-20 10:08:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	11¢	$2	0xe77aca…
05-20 09:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xdcf32d…
05-20 09:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb9099e…
05-20 09:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	18	6¢	$1	0xbc7a22…
05-20 09:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	14¢	$2	0x110dcd…
05-20 09:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	62	4¢	$2	0xa0ce2d…
05-20 09:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0xe4526f…
05-20 09:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x1a0c4f…
05-20 09:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0x40efc1…
05-20 09:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	16	55¢	$9	0xbd11a0…
05-20 09:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	16	16¢	$2	0x3148b5…
05-20 09:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x7f9c8f…
05-20 09:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	23	5¢	$1	0xd7b397…
05-20 09:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	23	11¢	$2	0x7d2507…
05-20 08:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x3ef524…
05-20 08:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xac60f7…
05-20 08:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0x77b125…
05-20 08:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x37b094…
05-20 08:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xaf6d70…
05-20 08:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xf2ccb2…
05-20 08:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x638567…
05-20 08:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xb20219…
05-20 08:38:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xedbe91…
05-20 08:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0xd846c2…
05-20 08:28:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0xfa3d48…
05-20 08:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x165f8b…
05-20 08:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xc1ce6a…
05-20 08:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	9	51¢	$5	0x80ec9c…
05-20 08:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x819319…
05-20 08:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x441b62…
05-20 08:11:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x82bf01…
05-20 08:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	25	68¢	$17	0x7a61ed…
05-20 08:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x993ddf…
05-20 08:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	61¢	$3	0xef5764…
05-20 08:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xeb866b…
05-20 07:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0xca6e1e…
05-20 07:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	18	45¢	$8	0xb2497b…
05-20 07:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	18	14¢	$2	0xec5687…
05-20 07:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x6cd4fb…
05-20 07:42:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x0f9044…
05-20 07:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0xa50b61…
05-20 07:37:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x3b4c6b…
05-20 07:26:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0xbc4280…
05-20 07:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xdbfc10…
05-20 07:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	47¢	$6	0xf65947…
05-20 07:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	21¢	$2	0x198653…
05-20 06:57:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xe8e416…
05-20 06:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0xe9a117…
05-20 06:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x199038…
05-20 06:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x5c47d2…
05-20 06:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x8bdb16…
05-20 06:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xa28ecb…
05-20 06:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xe7a3dd…
05-20 06:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x232735…