Costly-Tiara — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

110

Trades

730

lifetime

Volume

$1.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 18:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 61% $-5

Politics

18% — —

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?	81	$111	8,711	8,999	-288	open	—	02-13 04:20
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by february 6 2026 681	1	$79	357	0	+357	open	—	01-29 18:18
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$38	30	30	+0	open	—	01-17 02:42
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	2	$24	25	25	+0	open	—	02-17 18:20
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	5	$21	16	11	+4	Down	+$1	05-07 07:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	4	$21	17	17	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 07:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	4	$20	18	18	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 10:48
will the us next strike iran on january 31 2026 et 836	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	01-14 10:45
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by march 31 2026	2	$19	100	100	+0	open	—	02-18 01:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	2	$17	13	13	+0	Up	+$4	05-07 10:31
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	2	$15	13	13	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 08:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	2	$14	11	11	+0	Up	+$3	05-07 08:52
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$12	16	16	+0	open	—	02-12 15:12
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	3	$12	12	2	+11	Up	+$1	05-07 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	10	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-29 08:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	1	$12	13	0	+13	Down	$-12	05-07 18:19
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?	2	$12	0	5,935	-5,935	open	—	01-13 21:32
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	2	$11	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 07:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	05-20 05:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	1	$11	11	0	+11	Down	+$0	05-07 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	05-18 06:12
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Up	+$0	05-07 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	9	$10	8	7	+1	open	—	04-29 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-15 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-19 05:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	2	$9	11	0	+11	open	—	05-18 08:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-15 06:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-15 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	1	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-15 06:24
btc updown 5m 1780547700	2	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	06-04 04:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 18:34:38	btc updown 5m 1782930900	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x564b3e…
07-01 18:14:11	btc updown 5m 1782929700	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa82b6d…
07-01 06:53:41	btc updown 5m 1782888900	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xb3f12c…
06-27 15:17:49	btc updown 5m 1782573600	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x4a9765…
06-27 14:44:26	btc updown 5m 1782571500	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb016eb…
06-20 04:57:05	btc updown 5m 1781931300	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xc8a35b…
06-20 04:44:40	btc updown 5m 1781930700	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x47efad…
06-05 07:03:06	btc updown 5m 1780643100	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x52d4c2…
06-04 05:54:28	btc updown 5m 1780552500	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x9a4899…
06-04 05:47:27	btc updown 5m 1780552200	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1a3324…
06-04 04:41:00	btc updown 5m 1780548000	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x045533…
06-04 04:38:55	btc updown 5m 1780548000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x79eb98…
06-04 04:37:15	btc updown 5m 1780547700	Up	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0xe0686b…
06-04 04:33:03	btc updown 5m 1780547700	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x11718c…
06-04 04:31:46	btc updown 5m 1780547400	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x0ad187…
06-04 04:31:18	btc updown 5m 1780547400	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xe7607c…
06-04 04:28:46	btc updown 5m 1780547400	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x732abf…
06-04 04:24:43	btc updown 5m 1780547100	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5612a3…
06-04 04:22:04	btc updown 5m 1780546800	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xd7e00c…
06-04 04:20:16	btc updown 5m 1780546800	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcd6458…
06-04 04:10:00	btc updown 5m 1780546200	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xbef78c…
06-04 04:07:03	btc updown 5m 1780545900	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3255d1…
05-27 15:49:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2a8ba6…
05-26 04:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x39bae2…
05-26 04:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x0c99c1…
05-26 04:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x593d0d…
05-26 04:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xcc7688…
05-26 04:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xfada65…
05-26 03:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xaa5687…
05-26 03:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xfb5a71…
05-26 03:57:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x44638d…
05-26 03:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x781886…
05-26 03:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xfd5a36…
05-26 03:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xa2409f…
05-26 03:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1a4ec8…
05-26 03:46:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	61¢	$3	0xba206c…
05-26 03:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x3c95fd…
05-24 18:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x0db4bc…
05-23 06:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xb590e3…
05-23 06:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x29cabc…
05-22 06:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4a2c47…
05-22 06:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x7b9d82…
05-22 06:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x25fe83…
05-22 06:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x220652…
05-22 06:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0xaab7fb…
05-21 04:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4ca53a…
05-21 04:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xde6b4c…
05-21 04:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8ae8b6…
05-21 04:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x029df2…
05-21 04:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xef3702…
05-21 04:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x69d9aa…
05-21 04:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7421c7…
05-21 04:10:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x40cadf…
05-21 04:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x94f004…
05-21 04:08:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x7bf559…
05-21 04:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe743aa…
05-21 04:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xa0b201…
05-21 04:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x4d5dc2…
05-21 03:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x7ced40…
05-21 03:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x495fbb…
05-21 03:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xada4df…
05-21 03:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xb88394…
05-21 03:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa1b75f…
05-21 03:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x1aaa59…
05-21 03:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x29f3a1…
05-20 06:55:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x690e8e…
05-20 06:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe0b8f3…
05-20 06:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x985db2…
05-20 06:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5e886d…
05-20 06:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf3b088…
05-20 06:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0x11225c…
05-20 06:40:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x429a6e…
05-20 06:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xe89788…
05-20 06:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x2468c8…
05-20 06:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x252e34…
05-20 06:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xfee3fe…
05-20 06:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0x196796…
05-20 06:32:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x39bec9…
05-20 06:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x7208c6…
05-20 06:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xfdd500…
05-20 06:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x54bc6c…
05-20 06:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc745d7…
05-20 06:24:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe2defb…
05-20 06:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0bbdaa…
05-20 06:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xd7ad9a…
05-20 06:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xdbb157…
05-20 06:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xdb44b7…
05-20 06:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x65beb1…
05-20 06:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa3bc94…
05-20 06:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x3abf0b…
05-20 05:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x9f274f…
05-20 05:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x5b9490…
05-20 05:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xcfec07…
05-20 05:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xebc9df…
05-20 05:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd495b0…
05-20 05:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x286df4…
05-20 05:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xae3a41…
05-20 05:33:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x521191…
05-20 05:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9aa2c3…
05-20 05:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x0c50fa…