Serious-Analogue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.5%

Resolved

Trades

188

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 05-14 20:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 20% $-22

Politics

18% — —

Other

6% 0% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	9	$94	173	139	+35	open	—	04-30 04:59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$92	167	167	+0	open	—	04-20 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	6	$54	72	72	+0	open	—	04-29 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	5	$53	167	34	+133	open	—	04-29 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	7	$52	133	64	+69	open	—	04-30 05:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	4	$52	54	54	+0	open	—	04-30 04:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	8	$49	52	52	+0	open	—	04-30 05:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	10	$48	72	72	+0	open	—	04-28 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	10	$42	133	33	+100	open	—	04-28 16:40
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	2	$38	652	652	+0	open	—	04-20 12:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	9	$38	84	54	+29	open	—	04-30 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	5	$37	61	61	+0	open	—	04-30 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	7	$36	46	34	+13	open	—	04-29 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	8	$34	34	34	+0	open	—	04-28 16:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	5	$32	99	28	+71	Down	+$2	05-05 14:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	4	$32	41	41	+0	open	—	04-30 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	4	$31	35	35	+0	open	—	04-29 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	04-28 15:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$27	18	18	+0	open	—	04-28 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	6	$21	30	30	+0	open	—	04-28 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$19	48	48	+0	open	—	04-30 06:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	2	$18	31	31	+0	open	—	04-29 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	5	$17	327	183	+143	open	—	04-30 05:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$16	209	0	+209	open	—	04-13 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	3	$15	1,000	500	+500	Up	$-5	05-05 14:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	3	$15	37	0	+37	open	—	04-30 05:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	3	$15	19	16	+3	open	—	04-28 16:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	4	$13	11	11	+0	open	—	04-28 16:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	2	$12	19	0	+19	open	—	04-29 12:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$11	243	0	+243	Up	$-11	05-05 14:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 20:32:19	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	900	0¢	$2	0x07dea5…
05-05 14:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xec3607…
05-05 14:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x989ddc…
05-05 14:49:18	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x056852…
05-05 14:48:30	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xa29d1b…
05-05 14:48:22	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xa71a9f…
05-05 14:47:50	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	188	1¢	$2	0x362aa9…
05-05 14:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xa32ce3…
05-05 14:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb09d1a…
05-05 14:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x804c83…
05-05 14:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xeab6b7…
05-05 14:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	500	1¢	$5	0xc5c53f…
05-05 14:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xad5de6…
05-05 14:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xf326c0…
05-05 14:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0x4c814f…
05-05 14:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x21c3a4…
05-05 14:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0xb0f355…
05-05 14:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x27f10d…
05-02 06:21:36	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xf8bd2f…
05-02 05:56:40	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0xd1e482…
04-30 06:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	41	30¢	$12	0x31e5b5…
04-30 06:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb51009…
04-30 06:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x82b726…
04-30 06:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xb3036a…
04-30 06:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x8d4655…
04-30 06:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0x9f7b55…
04-30 06:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x74eef1…
04-30 06:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x39e132…
04-30 06:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x398d56…
04-30 06:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xe87ac5…
04-30 06:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	49	15¢	$7	0xa5d1d3…
04-30 06:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xdb9fc0…
04-30 06:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xf8ca3e…
04-30 06:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	SELL	48	19¢	$9	0xb3092b…
04-30 06:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x0e0aee…
04-30 05:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x8af667…
04-30 05:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xcb73f5…
04-30 05:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x2949ed…
04-30 05:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x93b909…
04-30 05:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x360a14…
04-30 05:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x876d6f…
04-30 05:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x822585…
04-30 05:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	183	2¢	$4	0x5c0d75…
04-30 05:27:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfdfd7b…
04-30 05:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x5f1f9f…
04-30 05:24:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	34	75¢	$26	0x15e7d5…
04-30 05:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x65dcf8…
04-30 05:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	18	29¢	$5	0x03d7a7…
04-30 05:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x74b3e9…
04-30 05:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x328bff…
04-30 05:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x127051…
04-30 05:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x108a21…
04-30 05:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x44c3fe…
04-30 05:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xac0397…
04-30 05:16:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x342845…
04-30 05:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	26	19¢	$5	0x0eafbc…
04-30 05:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x7f0e48…
04-30 05:16:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x6ed1ba…
04-30 05:15:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	SELL	19	63¢	$12	0xfce7c9…
04-30 05:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xa36030…
04-30 05:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x9c0e4b…
04-30 05:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	22	48¢	$10	0xd0691e…
04-30 05:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x6ec9d3…
04-30 05:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	14	40¢	$5	0xe76903…
04-30 05:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xac0d79…
04-30 05:09:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x3e0eb9…
04-30 04:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0xc58fb5…
04-30 04:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	43	34¢	$15	0x682a05…
04-30 04:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xcc34a7…
04-30 04:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	43	27¢	$12	0xaa5ecd…
04-30 04:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xd8dd62…
04-30 04:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	23	32¢	$7	0x7c115e…
04-30 04:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xd58528…
04-30 04:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	29	36¢	$11	0xe3a1fb…
04-30 04:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x342f55…
04-30 04:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x38061b…
04-30 04:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xee74ff…
04-30 04:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	SELL	35	38¢	$13	0x1e90be…
04-30 04:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0xb306f4…
04-29 17:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	48	46¢	$22	0xc45827…
04-29 17:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xef82ec…
04-29 17:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0xb484d8…
04-29 17:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x2292c7…
04-29 17:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0x6afa3b…
04-29 17:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xc94258…
04-29 17:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	SELL	31	26¢	$8	0x10158a…
04-29 17:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xa5d31e…
04-29 16:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	133	8¢	$10	0x9d4b9d…
04-29 16:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x26d2e2…
04-29 16:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x38f8e6…
04-29 16:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x85e2f9…
04-29 16:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xe597b8…
04-29 16:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xc61f41…
04-29 16:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0xb2bbc6…
04-29 16:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xaa7794…
04-29 16:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x722806…
04-29 16:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xc730c7…
04-29 16:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x8d8a60…
04-29 16:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2dcf53…
04-29 12:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xc9ed36…