Pastel-Demur — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$261

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-19 08:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

61% — —

Other

33% 100% +$4

Politics

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes		-16	$-12	68¢	$-11	+$1	06-19 08:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will max homa win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$3.3K	1,657	1,657	+0	open	—	04-06 01:00
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$3.2K	1,628	1,628	-0	open	—	03-17 08:30
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$3.2K	1,640	1,640	+0	open	—	03-28 13:15
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	1	$134	138	0	+138	open	—	06-19 08:12
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$94	96	0	+96	open	—	04-28 08:27
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$59	0	59	-59	open	—	02-20 06:08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	1	$51	55	0	+55	open	—	05-26 07:27
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	2	$49	25	25	+0	open	—	04-28 08:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$48	26	26	+0	open	—	03-17 08:30
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	2	$45	38	38	+0	open	—	03-12 12:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	04-01 01:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$35	18	18	+0	open	—	04-01 01:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$33	33	0	+33	open	—	05-26 07:28
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$31	32	0	+32	open	—	01-19 10:57
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	03-04 05:20
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	04-28 08:25
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	1	$28	30	0	+30	open	—	06-19 08:12
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	01-20 13:39
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	1	$23	31	0	+31	open	—	04-06 01:00
will israel strike lebanon on february 3 2026	1	$21	28	0	+28	open	—	02-03 03:33
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	02-03 03:34
will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	1	$18	24	0	+24	open	—	04-28 08:27
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	1	$18	22	0	+22	Yes	+$4	02-20 06:09
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	1	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	03-12 12:09
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	04-17 05:13
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	03-04 05:22
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	02-11 07:40
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	1	$12	0	16	-16	open	—	06-19 08:11
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	03-12 12:10
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	1	$11	17	0	+17	open	—	04-11 11:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 08:12:56	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xe9a2f6…
06-19 08:12:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	138	97¢	$134	0x725b44…
06-19 08:11:41	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0x83f45c…
05-26 07:28:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x655854…
05-26 07:27:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x4d1a63…
04-28 08:27:24	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	96	98¢	$94	0x6ac5be…
04-28 08:27:04	will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	24	75¢	$18	0x9f5bbd…
04-28 08:25:46	Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xd33c53…
04-28 08:25:38	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x822379…
04-17 05:13:14	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x828382…
04-17 05:12:54	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x41255b…
04-11 11:14:05	Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0xf990be…
04-11 11:12:51	Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xc726ef…
04-06 01:00:39	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	31	74¢	$23	0x5dfa58…
04-06 01:00:17	will max homa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	1,657	99¢	$1,645	0x5f1c6f…
04-01 01:23:39	will max homa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	1,657	100¢	$1,649	0x5f8754…
04-01 01:20:47	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x8ec13f…
04-01 01:20:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x835086…
03-28 13:15:23	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	1,640	98¢	$1,615	0xf92c97…
03-28 13:15:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	18	98¢	$17	0xc5bcac…
03-25 11:33:57	Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1,640	99¢	$1,619	0x4ea473…
03-17 08:31:11	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	20	87¢	$18	0x630c80…
03-17 08:30:25	Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	1,628	99¢	$1,618	0xa413ae…
03-17 08:30:11	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x75c1fe…
03-12 12:10:05	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf5030b…
03-12 12:09:51	Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x7b741d…
03-12 12:09:25	Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1,628	100¢	$1,620	0x191c68…
03-12 12:07:39	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	SELL	38	52¢	$20	0x98c8e4…
03-04 05:22:47	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	No	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xe3bfe3…
03-04 05:22:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	26	86¢	$22	0xc12449…
03-04 05:20:25	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	22	56¢	$12	0x413d29…
03-02 05:40:17	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x0ee426…
03-02 05:39:43	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	22	82¢	$18	0xa47829…
02-20 06:09:32	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	BUY	22	83¢	$18	0x27311d…
02-20 06:08:28	Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x2e14a2…
02-11 07:40:11	Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xdfaefd…
02-03 03:34:14	Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x2a3695…
02-03 03:33:12	will israel strike lebanon on february 3 2026	No	BUY	28	74¢	$21	0x7cc709…
01-20 13:39:54	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	16	66¢	$10	0x0b34ba…
01-19 10:58:14	Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0x5d9128…
01-19 10:57:22	will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	Yes	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x63cf52…