Black-Pocketwatch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

247

lifetime

Volume

$3.89K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 05-09 22:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

55% — —

Crypto

35% 0% $-10

Politics

9% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$500	125,000	0	+125,000	open	—	01-08 14:17
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$500	71,429	0	+71,429	open	—	01-08 14:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$251	53,598	0	+53,598	open	—	04-26 20:19
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$250	8,041	0	+8,041	open	—	01-08 14:27
bitcoin up or down on january 8	2	$150	100,893	0	+100,893	open	—	01-08 19:13
bitcoin above 92k on january 12	2	$130	144	144	+0	open	—	01-12 16:45
lal elc mad 2026 04 22 mad	2	$110	718	0	+718	open	—	04-22 18:35
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	03-14 15:55
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	03-14 15:54
will ethereum reach 3800 january 5 11	1	$100	8,830	0	+8,830	open	—	01-08 14:38
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	03-14 15:54
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$100	1,429	0	+1,429	open	—	01-08 19:39
ethereum up or down on january 9	2	$71	111	111	+0	open	—	01-09 15:32
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$70	45,000	0	+45,000	open	—	03-17 19:35
bitcoin above 94k on january 12	2	$56	6,499	0	+6,499	open	—	01-12 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$56	54	54	+0	open	—	05-01 18:20
solana up or down january 9 2am et	1	$50	252	0	+252	open	—	01-09 07:25
bitcoin above 102k on january 16	1	$50	3,486	0	+3,486	open	—	01-12 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	05-01 13:40
sea int lec 2026 01 14 lec	3	$26	539	0	+539	open	—	01-14 12:15
will bitcoin reach 104k january 12 18	1	$25	1,332	0	+1,332	open	—	01-13 10:41
will bitcoin reach 102k january 12 18	1	$25	781	0	+781	open	—	01-13 10:42
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	1	$25	428	0	+428	open	—	03-15 20:31
will ethereum reach 3400 january 5 11	1	$25	1,562	0	+1,562	open	—	01-09 18:56
will bitcoin reach 96k january 5 11	2	$25	1,351	0	+1,351	open	—	01-11 10:11
bitcoin up or down january 12 2pm et	1	$25	86	0	+86	open	—	01-12 19:04
ethereum up or down january 8 3pm et	5	$24	155	155	+0	open	—	01-08 20:58
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	2	$21	17	17	+0	open	—	01-17 05:21
btc updown 15m 1767906000	2	$21	361	0	+361	open	—	01-08 21:12
fl1 sbr rcl 2026 04 24 draw	3	$20	16	15	+0	open	—	04-24 21:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 22:31:40	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x1cd08d…
05-07 18:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xd432bf…
05-03 20:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7058d6…
05-03 19:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc115ee…
05-03 19:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x2c14f9…
05-03 18:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x1498e9…
05-02 20:08:44	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x10fc81…
05-02 20:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x0f4e4a…
05-01 20:10:12	Solana Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf6fc4a…
05-01 20:09:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfbf02a…
05-01 20:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x92efbb…
05-01 19:01:08	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0x1d8e35…
05-01 18:26:58	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x78f98c…
05-01 18:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	54	66¢	$36	0x800fba…
05-01 18:19:50	Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x7de8e6…
05-01 16:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xdd18fc…
05-01 13:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	89¢	$17	0xcd818b…
05-01 12:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x286847…
05-01 06:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x3349a6…
04-27 09:32:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	556	2¢	$10	0x751d0e…
04-26 20:48:46	Will Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x01fc59…
04-26 20:27:10	Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x82d383…
04-26 20:26:56	Will Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa85d5d…
04-26 20:26:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	455	2¢	$10	0x4a938c…
04-26 20:25:38	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x297fc8…
04-26 20:23:58	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xaad735…
04-26 20:22:00	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf64427…
04-26 20:19:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x707e68…
04-26 17:43:58	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xed42a0…
04-26 17:40:10	Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x870e63…
04-25 19:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x024cf4…
04-25 18:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0xf2f030…
04-25 18:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x20d371…
04-25 16:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0c684c…
04-25 15:43:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x16af2e…
04-25 15:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc3fd2d…
04-25 15:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x434099…
04-25 15:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x29ae04…
04-25 15:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x9584cf…
04-25 15:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x45fe46…
04-25 15:17:52	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xab13c1…
04-24 21:02:38	fl1 sbr rcl 2026 04 24 draw	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb520e7…
04-24 21:01:36	fl1 sbr rcl 2026 04 24 draw	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xba8c8b…
04-24 20:54:24	Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x60c23d…
04-24 20:52:28	Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa84617…
04-24 20:47:56	Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x772336…
04-24 20:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x55141f…
04-24 20:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$1	0x12ef9b…
04-24 20:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x87d2e6…
04-24 20:34:16	fl1 sbr rcl 2026 04 24 rcl	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x6fe461…
04-24 20:26:02	por alv aro 2026 04 24 aro	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xd6d811…
04-24 20:25:44	por alv aro 2026 04 24 draw	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x303371…
04-24 20:24:00	fl1 sbr rcl 2026 04 24 draw	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x074f50…
04-24 20:23:16	fl1 sbr rcl 2026 04 24 rcl	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x02e5e7…
04-22 19:44:28	dfb lev bay 2026 04 22 draw	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x073fc0…
04-22 18:35:34	lal elc mad 2026 04 22 mad	Yes	BUY	689	15¢	$100	0x6a5a58…
04-22 18:19:32	wti up or down on april 22 2026	Down	BUY	315	3¢	$10	0x01d69d…
04-22 18:17:34	lal bet rea 2026 04 24 rea	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x87aa54…
04-22 17:28:24	lal rso get 2026 04 22 rso	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xa3aa60…
04-22 17:27:58	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 draw	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x640401…
04-22 11:26:44	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	74	14¢	$10	0x5fef96…
04-22 11:25:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xf52b85…
04-22 05:43:14	lal elc mad 2026 04 22 mad	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x7b44d5…
04-22 05:42:50	epl bur mac 2026 04 22 mac	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x6e3d76…
04-22 05:42:32	lal bar cel 2026 04 22 bar	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x59d529…
04-22 05:42:24	fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 psg	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xe4905a…
04-21 17:31:10	lal mal val 2026 04 21 halftime result home	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x013be6…
04-21 17:29:16	lal bil osa 2026 04 21 halftime result draw	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0935f4…
04-21 09:20:56	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 rea	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x50d6e5…
04-21 09:16:58	epl bri che 2026 04 21 che	Yes	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0xd060b8…
04-21 09:16:34	lal bil osa 2026 04 21 osa	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x26d541…
04-21 08:16:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	28,571	1¢	$200	0x31779c…
04-20 20:51:00	btc updown 5m 1776718200	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x609ba1…
04-20 20:48:12	btc updown 5m 1776717900	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x827df7…
04-20 20:44:32	sea lec fio 2026 04 20 lec	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x1dc75f…
04-20 20:43:54	sea lec fio 2026 04 20 fio	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7f4cf3…
04-20 20:42:46	epl cry wes 2026 04 20 cry	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf03e0c…
04-20 20:42:28	epl cry wes 2026 04 20 wes	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2876c9…
04-20 20:35:34	btc updown 5m 1776717300	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9f105c…
03-27 21:06:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x866e06…
03-27 21:06:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xcf9f87…
03-27 21:04:47	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xaa995d…
03-27 20:58:59	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	220	0¢	$1	0x323de1…
03-27 20:55:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x231a19…
03-27 20:53:55	bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1b67dc…
03-26 20:50:33	btc updown 5m 1774558200	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x63d030…
03-26 10:47:07	highest temperature in london on march 27 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x47ceb4…
03-26 10:45:37	highest temperature in madrid on march 27 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x489a99…
03-26 10:42:45	cbb tenn iowast 2026 03 27	Iowa State Cyclones	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9287e5…
03-26 10:42:37	cbb stjohn duke 2026 03 27	Duke Blue Devils	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x3240f3…
03-26 10:42:27	cbb ark arz 2026 03 26	Arizona Wildcats	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7d53f6…
03-26 10:40:43	atp neumaye ajdukov 2026 03 26	Duje Ajdukovic	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd90e12…
03-26 10:40:29	uef tur rom 2026 03 26 tur	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x40f58b…
03-26 10:38:47	highest temperature in seoul on march 26 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x6cc076…
03-26 10:38:09	nba nop det 2026 03 26	Pelicans	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3f4676…
03-26 10:37:47	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26	Texas Longhorns	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9a209e…
03-25 21:14:31	will sp 500 spx hit 7000 high in march 2026	Yes	BUY	329	3¢	$10	0xd3b722…
03-25 21:10:51	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0xcdc058…
03-25 21:09:33	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe9ff8e…
03-25 21:05:25	btc updown 5m 1774472400	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa6b56b…