Noisy-Justification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$257

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

121

Trades

1,800

lifetime

Volume

$7.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 07-11 17:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 55% $-257

Other

38% — —

Sports

2% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 509 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in seattle on april 7 2026 53forbelow	2	$243	132	131	+1	open	—	04-07 14:50
highest temperature in miami on april 7 2026 75forbelow	15	$239	122	122	+0	open	—	04-07 09:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	15	$237	176	180	-4	Down	+$35	05-05 21:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	29	$211	367	132	+235	Down	$-63	05-05 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	31	$179	173	163	+10	Down	+$17	05-05 14:34
highest temperature in miami on april 9 2026 74 75f	6	$176	90	90	+0	open	—	04-09 15:58
highest temperature in miami on april 3 2026 82 83f	20	$175	134	132	+2	open	—	04-03 17:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	14	$144	460	20	+440	Up	$-116	05-05 21:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	28	$130	332	0	+332	Down	$-130	05-05 15:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	26	$122	137	101	+36	Down	+$10	05-05 14:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	11	$114	102	102	+0	Up	+$24	05-05 15:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	11	$110	112	94	+19	Down	+$10	05-05 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	8	$105	160	160	+0	Up	+$5	05-05 21:53
highest temperature in nyc on march 31 2026 74forhigher	19	$103	55	55	+0	open	—	03-31 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	10	$100	131	81	+50	Up	+$18	05-05 15:12
highest temperature in miami on april 10 2026 78 79f	11	$98	77	86	-9	open	—	04-10 19:27
highest temperature in miami on april 6 2026 82 83f	15	$96	126	84	+42	open	—	04-06 13:33
btc updown 4h 1774022400	35	$95	102	101	+1	open	—	03-20 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	13	$93	84	84	+0	Up	+$13	05-05 14:52
highest temperature in toronto on march 30 2026 15corhigher	5	$92	48	48	+0	open	—	03-30 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	11	$87	88	87	+1	Down	+$21	05-05 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	7	$83	80	80	+0	Up	+$23	05-05 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	20	$82	240	0	+240	Up	$-82	05-05 16:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	8	$81	137	105	+31	Down	+$21	05-04 22:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	9	$78	92	92	+0	Up	+$3	05-05 15:34
highest temperature in miami on april 3 2026 84 85f	13	$75	83	81	+2	open	—	04-03 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	8	$74	65	65	+0	Up	+$13	05-05 15:04
highest temperature in toronto on april 4 2026 7c	6	$72	56	55	+1	open	—	04-04 23:44
highest temperature in chicago on april 4 2026 57forbelow	5	$69	60	59	+1	open	—	04-03 20:50
highest temperature in miami on april 3 2026 80 81f	7	$66	33	43	-10	open	—	04-03 16:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 17:20:22	btc updown 5m 1783790400	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x12c767…
07-11 17:19:50	btc updown 5m 1783790400	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf7fe51…
07-11 17:16:59	btc updown 5m 1783790100	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x794eb9…
07-11 17:14:52	btc updown 5m 1783789800	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x84900d…
07-11 17:06:25	btc updown 15m 1783789200	Down	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xf2691b…
07-11 17:05:55	btc updown 15m 1783789200	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x39ce5c…
07-11 17:05:35	btc updown 15m 1783789200	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa2b474…
07-11 16:56:55	btc updown 15m 1783788300	Up	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x18b0c5…
07-11 16:55:01	btc updown 15m 1783788300	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x71ce91…
07-11 16:54:16	btc updown 5m 1783788600	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x90d07c…
07-07 21:02:11	btc updown 15m 1783458000	Down	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xfe607d…
07-07 21:01:01	btc updown 15m 1783458000	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x6ccf21…
07-07 21:00:34	btc updown 15m 1783458000	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x338c1f…
07-07 20:57:43	btc updown 15m 1783457100	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x9fedd3…
07-07 20:57:22	btc updown 15m 1783457100	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe2ef73…
07-07 20:56:59	btc updown 5m 1783457700	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xb0f84c…
07-07 20:56:20	btc updown 5m 1783457700	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7e3d2a…
07-07 10:05:02	btc updown 15m 1783418400	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x33656e…
07-07 09:50:17	bitcoin up or down july 7 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x8b792c…
07-07 09:48:43	btc updown 15m 1783417500	Up	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0x6e0e02…
07-07 09:47:28	btc updown 15m 1783417500	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x439273…
06-17 21:26:50	btc updown 5m 1781731500	Up	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x01062c…
06-17 21:26:20	btc updown 5m 1781731500	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x04d33c…
05-27 18:33:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xb5a885…
05-27 18:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x4bbe88…
05-27 18:32:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3c7335…
05-27 18:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf154f1…
05-27 18:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xce7dac…
05-27 18:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	11	29¢	$3	0x0efb94…
05-27 18:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x9a069b…
05-26 21:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x759625…
05-26 21:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x74bd6c…
05-26 21:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x78feac…
05-26 21:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc15db7…
05-26 21:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa5a0ee…
05-26 21:05:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x05c037…
05-26 21:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0xfb4ce2…
05-26 21:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x321c20…
05-26 20:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd26e1b…
05-26 20:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x905fbe…
05-26 20:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x9ca343…
05-26 20:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8b624d…
05-26 20:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6450db…
05-26 20:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0xb335d2…
05-26 20:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfb7837…
05-26 20:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4c7f1d…
05-26 20:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x321d9e…
05-26 20:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4cc151…
05-26 20:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7e3e73…
05-26 20:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x6d2568…
05-26 19:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xeac283…
05-26 19:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xf03353…
05-26 19:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x6972d5…
05-26 19:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6d2852…
05-22 22:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x52ec05…
05-22 22:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x30758b…
05-22 22:42:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1c2f25…
05-22 22:42:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x04bf01…
05-22 22:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x4478a3…
05-22 22:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xa50b61…
05-22 22:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xffa66c…
05-22 22:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x5ebb44…
05-22 22:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x44d29a…
05-22 22:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x2bd724…
05-22 22:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	54	60¢	$32	0x2e5eaa…
05-22 22:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd8d84f…
05-22 22:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xcc6871…
05-22 22:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x26cf92…
05-22 22:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x4300aa…
05-22 22:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf98a09…
05-22 22:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	44	61¢	$27	0x6dd4d2…
05-22 22:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x75c38e…
05-22 22:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xf1ad8b…
05-22 22:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x640de8…
05-22 22:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xb629f5…
05-22 22:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xd78a96…
05-22 22:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x5340fb…
05-22 22:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xf0d8ef…
05-22 22:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	23	45¢	$10	0x9d35a3…
05-22 22:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x5d2c70…
05-06 10:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	26	43¢	$11	0x08240d…
05-06 10:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x22ef37…
05-06 09:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa84d83…
05-05 21:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	53	22¢	$12	0xcc1927…
05-05 21:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x30fa6b…
05-05 21:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0xa3f0e2…
05-05 21:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x4ca459…
05-05 21:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	67	46¢	$31	0x5a3d57…
05-05 21:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xdd10db…
05-05 21:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xe8b6cc…
05-05 21:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x8e80ab…
05-05 21:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xafd4ad…
05-05 21:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xf4c4e8…
05-05 21:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	20	73¢	$14	0x708f3d…
05-05 21:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xdf4e10…
05-05 21:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xca8bb5…
05-05 21:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xaab569…
05-05 21:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x8c4188…
05-05 21:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc63866…
05-05 21:44:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x916c08…