Narrow-Lending — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

123

Trades

1,051

lifetime

Volume

$3.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-08

last 06-18 09:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 54% $-10

Other

18% — —

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+28	$15	10¢	$3	$-12	06-18 09:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	12	$213	295	235	+60	open	—	03-31 16:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$109	967	967	+0	open	—	05-25 13:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$108	256	256	+0	open	—	05-07 15:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$100	145	145	+0	open	—	04-17 19:06
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$97	62	62	+0	open	—	04-12 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$56	66	66	+0	Up	+$6	05-09 12:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	2	$43	32	31	+0	open	—	04-18 17:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	5	$42	37	37	+0	open	—	05-26 08:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$38	97	97	+0	open	—	05-06 07:31
btc updown 5m 1776453600	2	$36	49	0	+49	open	—	04-17 19:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$35	43	43	+0	open	—	04-17 19:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	6	$32	27	27	+0	open	—	05-21 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	3	$31	11	23	-12	open	—	05-04 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	4	$27	28	20	+8	open	—	05-26 08:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	4	$27	17	17	+0	open	—	05-04 07:00
bitcoin above 66k on march 31	2	$26	40	39	+1	open	—	03-31 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	3	$25	72	72	+0	Up	+$21	05-08 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$25	2,500	0	+2,500	Down	$-25	05-12 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	2	$23	19	19	+0	open	—	05-22 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	3	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	05-21 04:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	3	$23	18	18	+0	open	—	05-21 04:38
btc updown 5m 1776348300	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	04-16 14:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-02 05:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	3	$22	14	14	+0	open	—	05-21 12:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	4	$22	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	05-10 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	4	$21	15	15	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	05-31 12:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	3	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	05-21 12:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	4	$18	14	14	+0	Up	+$8	05-10 11:45
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$18	19	12	+7	open	—	03-08 20:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 09:32:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x2798f5…
06-10 09:37:19	btc updown 5m 1781084100	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe5ef8c…
06-10 09:30:27	btc updown 5m 1781083800	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb8af10…
06-10 09:30:25	btc updown 5m 1781083800	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xbd9baa…
06-10 09:25:55	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb5d9ff…
06-10 09:25:33	btc updown 5m 1781083500	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xe2c5ae…
06-10 06:30:42	btc updown 5m 1781073000	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xe3f11d…
06-09 09:24:18	btc updown 5m 1780996800	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$9	0x0dec39…
06-09 09:21:01	btc updown 5m 1780996800	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x168824…
06-09 09:20:25	btc updown 5m 1780996800	Down	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x158616…
06-09 09:10:37	btc updown 5m 1780996200	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x8e24bd…
06-09 09:10:22	btc updown 5m 1780996200	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x20a870…
06-09 09:10:21	btc updown 5m 1780996200	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x869869…
06-09 09:06:43	btc updown 5m 1780995900	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xcb6fd8…
06-09 09:00:16	btc updown 5m 1780995600	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xe67c72…
06-09 08:55:34	btc updown 5m 1780995300	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdd0c20…
06-09 08:51:01	btc updown 5m 1780995000	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x925f4e…
06-09 08:50:24	btc updown 5m 1780995000	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x21cf94…
06-09 08:47:55	btc updown 5m 1780994700	Down	SELL	7	80¢	$5	0x78dda8…
06-09 08:46:22	btc updown 5m 1780994700	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x7e82fb…
06-09 08:46:13	btc updown 5m 1780994700	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xdea7f7…
06-09 08:42:13	btc updown 5m 1780994400	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x856421…
06-09 08:40:24	btc updown 5m 1780994400	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x034921…
06-08 12:13:19	btc updown 5m 1780920600	Down	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x74a4de…
06-08 12:10:25	btc updown 5m 1780920600	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x33b60d…
06-08 12:07:40	btc updown 5m 1780920300	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x496533…
06-08 12:06:54	btc updown 5m 1780920300	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x3ba1ba…
06-08 06:43:19	btc updown 5m 1780900800	Up	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x72f830…
06-08 06:43:00	btc updown 5m 1780900800	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xb5be55…
06-08 06:40:55	btc updown 5m 1780900800	Up	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0x951f77…
06-08 06:40:31	btc updown 5m 1780900800	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xf18660…
06-08 04:16:28	btc updown 5m 1780892100	Down	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x20e9ee…
06-08 04:15:39	btc updown 5m 1780892100	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x1bf841…
06-05 08:37:01	btc updown 5m 1780648500	Down	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x987d42…
06-05 08:36:18	btc updown 5m 1780648500	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xbcf4b9…
06-05 08:33:36	btc updown 5m 1780648200	Down	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x856c69…
06-05 08:30:43	btc updown 5m 1780648200	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd9d7e9…
06-03 06:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xeb589d…
06-03 05:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x8cc4b4…
06-03 05:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x56fcc5…
06-03 05:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xac6e22…
06-03 05:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xecc032…
06-03 05:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	72¢	$3	0xff9aeb…
06-03 05:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xf11359…
06-03 05:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0xcd7254…
06-03 05:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1352d3…
06-03 05:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe93b2b…
06-03 05:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0xbb4d5e…
06-03 05:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe5d674…
06-03 05:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x45bdb5…
06-03 05:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x4a7c41…
06-03 05:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	56¢	$4	0x154291…
06-03 05:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc893bc…
06-02 11:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x5f33a6…
06-02 11:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x5beada…
06-02 11:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x6c2ef7…
06-02 11:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x624f88…
06-02 11:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x5a55ff…
06-02 10:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xa42840…
06-02 10:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xd31826…
06-02 09:53:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x166e86…
06-02 09:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x4c3369…
05-31 12:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x24e611…
05-31 12:28:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x88d346…
05-31 12:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x528759…
05-31 12:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x6eec84…
05-31 12:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0xecc555…
05-31 12:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x91fdf8…
05-31 11:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x759281…
05-31 08:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb543fb…
05-31 08:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0x352204…
05-31 08:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x48de29…
05-31 08:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0x09eae6…
05-31 08:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7039f8…
05-31 08:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xe0f72d…
05-31 08:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd40dd2…
05-31 08:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0xf0e1d5…
05-31 08:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x38b740…
05-30 07:01:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xfab181…
05-30 07:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x1dbd9c…
05-30 06:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0xe0336c…
05-30 06:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x6869b7…
05-30 06:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x7ffdab…
05-30 06:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xa2c15d…
05-30 06:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x833e6b…
05-30 05:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x128665…
05-30 05:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa8f592…
05-30 05:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xc96174…
05-30 05:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8c415a…
05-30 05:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x7aba3b…
05-30 05:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x91e2ae…
05-30 05:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xe17f07…
05-30 05:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x0d76c0…
05-30 05:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x727aad…
05-30 04:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x718dd3…
05-30 04:54:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x880bfa…
05-29 12:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	83¢	$2	0xfd585e…
05-29 12:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x9ab46b…
05-29 12:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x2636c0…
05-29 10:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd9a26f…