Expensive-Fleece — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

134

lifetime

Volume

$531

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 05-03 23:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

66% 0% $-45

Crypto

18% — —

Politics

12% — —

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in chicago on april 20 2026 56 57f	6	$102	82	49	+33	open	—	04-20 20:53
highest temperature in chicago on april 19 2026 48 49f	5	$48	53	6	+47	open	—	04-19 19:02
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	3	$46	80	80	+0	open	—	05-03 23:56
highest temperature in seoul on april 24 2026 21corhigher	2	$37	24	24	+0	open	—	04-23 17:25
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	6	$33	40	40	+0	Yes	$-27	04-28 15:25
highest temperature in chicago on april 19 2026 50 51f	8	$26	49	48	+2	open	—	04-19 18:26
highest temperature in london on april 18 2026 17c	4	$24	28	27	+1	open	—	04-18 15:16
highest temperature in chicago on april 20 2026 55forbelow	4	$24	36	35	+1	open	—	04-20 20:42
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	04-23 18:48
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	11	$18	98	0	+98	No	$-18	04-23 19:38
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	04-23 18:47
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	04-23 18:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$8	11	0	+11	open	—	04-23 18:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$8	9	0	+9	open	—	04-23 18:47
btc updown 15m 1776678300	2	$7	43	0	+43	open	—	04-20 09:52
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	1	$5	25	0	+25	open	—	04-23 18:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	04-24 05:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5	1,667	0	+1,667	open	—	04-24 05:56
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-23 18:57
sol updown 15m 1776421800	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-17 10:46
eth updown 15m 1776422700	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-17 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-02 01:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-02 03:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-02 04:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-01 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-02 10:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-02 09:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-02 01:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-02 05:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-02 07:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-03 23:56:56	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	13¢	$10	0x4fd2f9…
05-03 23:21:38	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	44	12¢	$5	0xf6ec3c…
05-02 17:21:26	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	82¢	$30	0xeda710…
05-02 10:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0xfceb6e…
05-02 10:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc27ba2…
05-02 09:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x78ee75…
05-02 09:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x27f57f…
05-02 09:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6e08c6…
05-02 09:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x671f47…
05-02 09:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x6893c5…
05-02 08:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x746790…
05-02 08:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1af503…
05-02 08:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x84277f…
05-02 08:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x78aa48…
05-02 08:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x4699db…
05-02 08:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x5eccb8…
05-02 08:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x76bbff…
05-02 07:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x108a67…
05-02 07:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x851fed…
05-02 07:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4fa5be…
05-02 07:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb05c69…
05-02 07:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x08b1f9…
05-02 06:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xfb79a9…
05-02 06:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfa9392…
05-02 06:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4910b7…
05-02 06:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x805771…
05-02 06:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc87615…
05-02 06:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0xaf8043…
05-02 05:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xff10d4…
05-02 05:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x232056…
05-02 05:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc3fbf9…
05-02 05:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb0a52b…
05-02 05:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x71643a…
05-02 04:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x336781…
05-02 04:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xd1096e…
05-02 04:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x009860…
05-02 04:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x9de0f9…
05-02 04:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x39e7be…
05-02 03:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe5d388…
05-02 03:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x2af518…
05-02 03:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xabe30b…
05-02 03:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x58eb8c…
05-02 03:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x4a3a3d…
05-02 02:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x85f59c…
05-02 02:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x3c91ee…
05-02 02:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xd65462…
05-02 02:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x42e0a8…
05-02 02:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x9f88ae…
05-02 01:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x36fa92…
05-02 01:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x54cd8f…
05-02 01:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x776c39…
05-02 01:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x3ede28…
05-02 01:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7bd312…
05-02 01:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0x89fec2…
05-02 00:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x47abb5…
05-02 00:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xb4b32b…
05-01 23:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x43a0a4…
05-01 23:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xac35df…
05-01 23:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcc673d…
05-01 23:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x6d218b…
05-01 23:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x7b7125…
05-01 22:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xfcb25e…
05-01 22:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x3fa99e…
05-01 22:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xca5ea6…
05-01 22:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xe698af…
05-01 22:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x6ee3f1…
05-01 21:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x70bc6c…
05-01 20:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9a5804…
05-01 20:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x81f065…
05-01 20:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4e0132…
05-01 19:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa83ca8…
04-28 15:25:16	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0xa5422e…
04-24 05:57:28	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x25271c…
04-24 05:56:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x26f9f5…
04-23 19:38:56	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xb1e7f6…
04-23 19:38:20	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x3b1845…
04-23 19:38:18	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xd8722d…
04-23 19:24:16	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xfca443…
04-23 19:23:48	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0x971e52…
04-23 18:58:14	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xbcde48…
04-23 18:57:48	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc26a67…
04-23 18:55:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9ec90f…
04-23 18:50:54	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x060af2…
04-23 18:50:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xde21b8…
04-23 18:50:52	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xccf47e…
04-23 18:48:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x50e65a…
04-23 18:47:50	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	19¢	$3	0xd064cb…
04-23 18:47:50	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0xbadb54…
04-23 18:47:50	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x785e65…
04-23 18:47:50	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x747a40…
04-23 18:47:48	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf9f26d…
04-23 18:47:48	Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf62f75…
04-23 18:47:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x9b8a49…
04-23 18:47:46	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x6ba878…
04-23 18:47:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x55e9b9…
04-23 18:47:46	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x31d935…
04-23 18:47:44	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xd83645…
04-23 17:25:36	highest temperature in seoul on april 24 2026 21corhigher	Yes	SELL	24	73¢	$17	0x470cc5…
04-23 13:24:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 24 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x2599fc…
04-20 20:53:58	highest temperature in chicago on april 20 2026 56 57f	Yes	BUY	32	89¢	$29	0x25fee0…