Ugly-Pony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

22.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$107

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-03-01

last 06-26 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% —

Crypto

32% 75% +$2

Other

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-315	$-13	4¢	$-13	$-0	06-26 21:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$50	25,000	25,000	+0	Yes	+$0	05-09 18:00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$13	0	315	-315	open	—	06-26 21:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$10	488	0	+488	open	—	03-01 00:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$8	16	16	+0	Up	+$2	05-09 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	1	$5	20	0	+20	open	—	05-02 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$4	4	4	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	1	$4	36	0	+36	open	—	05-02 19:32
btc updown 5m 1782511500	3	$3	53	0	+53	open	—	06-26 22:08
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	3	$3	17	0	+17	Up	$-3	05-09 18:12
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	2	$3	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-09 18:13
btc updown 5m 1782511200	2	$2	200	0	+200	open	—	06-26 22:04
btc updown 5m 1782508200	2	$2	4	4	+0	open	—	06-26 21:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 22:08:44	btc updown 5m 1782511500	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x4fc321…
06-26 22:08:37	btc updown 5m 1782511500	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x64ed74…
06-26 22:06:05	btc updown 5m 1782511500	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7a18f3…
06-26 22:04:41	btc updown 5m 1782511200	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xdd3bdf…
06-26 22:04:38	btc updown 5m 1782511200	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6f6a0d…
06-26 21:13:59	btc updown 5m 1782508200	Up	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x98f15f…
06-26 21:11:59	btc updown 5m 1782508200	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4965e1…
06-26 21:11:22	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	315	4¢	$13	0xd16f1a…
05-09 18:13:27	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x2110d9…
05-09 18:12:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x8bb472…
05-09 18:11:54	XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbd57c3…
05-09 18:11:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x829d4a…
05-09 18:11:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xaacd70…
05-09 18:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	93¢	$3	0x598352…
05-09 18:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6779ff…
05-09 18:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x5186bc…
05-09 18:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x18379d…
05-09 18:00:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25,000	0¢	$25	0x980f6e…
05-09 17:44:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$25	0x1e200d…
05-02 19:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0xe7f05a…
05-02 19:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4f1b15…
03-01 00:16:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xec49ab…
03-01 00:14:43	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	238	2¢	$5	0x15e5c8…