Clean-Tile — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

Trades

108

lifetime

Volume

$584

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 06-27 00:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% 0% $-2

Politics

24% — —

Tech

17% — —

Sports

4% 100% +$2

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes		+5	$2	22¢	$1	$-1	06-13 19:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
deepseek v4 released by february 28	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	03-01 06:36
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	2	$39	24	24	+0	open	—	02-26 17:36
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$36	26	26	+0	open	—	03-31 05:02
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	1	$30	0	33	-33	open	—	01-10 19:26
grok 4pt20 released by january 31 273	3	$26	25	25	+0	open	—	01-18 18:48
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$25	15	15	+0	open	—	04-27 15:02
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	1	$22	0	502	-502	open	—	01-18 17:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	03-05 05:14
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	3	$19	26	12	+14	open	—	04-07 17:39
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	04-07 10:52
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	2	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	03-01 06:36
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 05:02
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	1	$16	30	0	+30	open	—	04-19 15:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$14	11	11	+0	open	—	03-31 05:02
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	03-31 05:02
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on february 8	1	$11	21	0	+21	open	—	02-08 03:11
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	4	$11	45	0	+45	open	—	03-03 12:37
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	1	$10	18	0	+18	open	—	01-14 17:24
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-08 04:55
gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	4	$9	47	0	+47	open	—	03-05 17:31
will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	03-31 05:02
gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	1	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	03-31 05:12
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	2	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	06-08 19:27
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	2	$6	8	8	+0	open	—	01-25 03:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-26 08:35
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	02-26 17:38
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	1	$5	29	0	+29	open	—	01-10 19:54
Will the US strike Syria next?	3	$5	33	0	+33	open	—	01-10 19:39
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	2	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-13 19:15
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	1	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	05-05 05:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 00:17:25	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xbaa722…
06-26 09:58:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x96f898…
06-26 09:58:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x4d9d93…
06-16 09:32:18	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x2cf1a0…
06-16 09:31:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x9c7dea…
06-16 09:31:16	grok 4pt4 released by july 31	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xebf26a…
06-16 09:30:51	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0xe86e4f…
06-13 19:37:28	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7850a3…
06-13 19:27:09	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0xe6898b…
06-13 19:20:36	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd1c5c2…
06-13 19:20:25	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5505bf…
06-13 19:19:03	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe96805…
06-13 19:17:07	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x565d9a…
06-13 19:15:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x1496c0…
06-13 19:14:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xcccfa9…
06-13 19:08:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xef8f08…
06-13 19:08:12	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0xae4887…
06-08 19:27:58	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x439050…
06-08 19:27:30	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x421f21…
06-04 11:54:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xde59b7…
06-04 11:46:15	will a new gemini flagship be released by june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x957c06…
05-27 11:38:53	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0x6c9766…
05-27 11:37:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x45230a…
05-07 10:21:05	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd93fb2…
05-06 15:09:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xc88a81…
05-06 14:44:49	Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xcf3320…
05-05 05:38:50	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xbcfad3…
05-05 05:33:54	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x186fe9…
05-05 05:33:30	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x8ad4d0…
05-01 18:10:24	Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x8d01e7…
05-01 10:58:00	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xd41a9a…
04-27 15:03:32	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x956e68…
04-27 15:02:16	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x92bf60…
04-26 08:35:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x2270b2…
04-26 08:34:50	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xa11d2e…
04-22 04:21:02	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xd5f2dd…
04-21 19:05:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xf31417…
04-21 19:05:36	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xee9abe…
04-21 11:06:58	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x42f692…
04-21 11:06:12	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0ecaf5…
04-21 11:05:14	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb61305…
04-19 15:08:08	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x81e7fb…
04-16 05:52:36	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xfbf04e…
04-16 05:51:50	claude 4pt7 released by april 17 411	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x9aee7e…
04-08 04:55:45	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x1244d7…
04-07 17:48:01	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x1e68b0…
04-07 17:39:05	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0x6eca1f…
04-07 17:38:41	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x5280cd…
04-07 17:38:11	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x3a864e…
04-07 10:52:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3ac5cd…
04-05 19:03:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x719e9a…
04-01 15:58:33	us forces seize another oil tanker by april 15	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x9a31a7…
04-01 15:58:25	us forces seize another oil tanker by april 15	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5c51ba…
03-31 06:34:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x8621fb…
03-31 05:25:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x799539…
03-31 05:12:25	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x0e5093…
03-31 05:12:13	gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xa259b5…
03-31 05:02:49	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x77f72f…
03-31 05:02:35	will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8237a9…
03-31 05:02:19	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x8ff26d…
03-31 05:02:13	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	11	99¢	$10	0xeb6362…
03-31 05:02:07	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xa197da…
03-05 17:31:51	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb59c6c…
03-05 05:18:21	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	No	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x2a3924…
03-05 05:17:49	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x9e347c…
03-05 05:17:03	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x9cdc41…
03-05 05:14:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0xcf3092…
03-03 12:37:03	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xca4fbb…
03-03 10:08:13	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x84003a…
03-01 13:12:33	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x83df20…
03-01 13:11:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x343d3f…
03-01 13:08:37	will google have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa6d6a8…
03-01 13:07:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x6000a2…
03-01 11:43:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xda43e2…
03-01 11:36:43	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xaee328…
03-01 11:28:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x2eb771…
03-01 11:26:05	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x9825fa…
03-01 11:20:09	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd27412…
03-01 06:49:19	bitcoin above 66k on march 1	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x590c60…
03-01 06:38:45	Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xe18763…
03-01 06:36:53	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x2fe255…
03-01 06:36:37	deepseek v4 released by february 28	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x138423…
02-28 18:22:27	gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	No	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x04cf67…
02-28 18:12:29	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xa7ed09…
02-28 18:11:03	bun dor bay 2026 02 28 btts	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb60d9d…
02-28 11:19:27	epl lee mac 2026 02 28 btts	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xd00d04…
02-26 17:38:38	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xeb65a4…
02-26 17:36:06	Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x1c6f72…
02-13 02:41:29	deepseek v4 released by february 28	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x0a5cce…
02-13 02:35:15	Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	No	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x52e8f4…
02-13 02:33:11	gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x2e05ff…
02-08 03:11:31	will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on february 8	Yes	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x276004…
01-25 03:27:52	Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xb1b0b8…
01-18 18:48:50	grok 4pt20 released by january 31 273	No	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0xf43360…
01-18 17:50:20	Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	502	4¢	$22	0x7ea053…
01-14 17:24:18	will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	No	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0xd90d3f…
01-11 13:40:24	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x33fbef…
01-11 13:38:00	ssc fcb rmc 2026 01 11 fcb	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xd418eb…
01-11 13:30:52	Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xd383ae…
01-11 13:30:26	Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x77f8d5…