First-Surprise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$100

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.2%

Resolved

Trades

120

lifetime

Volume

$816

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-12

last 05-13 01:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 48% $-100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$100	104	0	+104	Down	$-100	05-12 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$73	80	80	+0	Down	$-7	05-12 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	14	$70	74	0	+74	Up	+$4	05-12 05:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	2	$60	92	0	+92	Up	+$32	05-12 02:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	2	$50	62	0	+62	Up	+$12	05-12 04:33
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	10	$50	67	0	+67	Down	+$17	05-12 04:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	2	$40	85	0	+85	Down	$-40	05-12 02:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$30	60	0	+60	Up	+$30	05-12 02:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	1	$30	41	0	+41	Up	+$11	05-12 02:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	5	$25	32	0	+32	Down	+$7	05-12 04:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	2	$25	71	71	+0	Up	+$5	05-12 02:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$20	117	0	+117	Up	$-20	05-12 02:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	2	$20	43	0	+43	Down	$-20	05-12 03:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	4	$20	46	0	+46	Down	$-20	05-12 05:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	6	$18	137	0	+137	Up	$-2	05-12 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	4	$17	12	12	+0	Up	+$3	05-12 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	2	$15	30	0	+30	Down	+$8	05-12 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 23:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	05-13 01:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	3	$11	12	5	+6	Down	$-1	05-13 01:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	3	$11	114	0	+114	Down	$-11	05-12 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$10	100	0	+100	Down	$-10	05-12 02:24
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	2	$10	97	0	+97	Up	$-10	05-12 06:03
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	2	$10	20	0	+20	Down	$-10	05-13 01:55
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	2	$10	11	0	+11	Up	+$1	05-12 05:29
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	4	$8	16	0	+16	Up	+$8	05-13 01:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	3	$7	9	3	+6	Up	+$1	05-13 01:32
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	3	$7	111	0	+111	Up	$-7	05-12 23:40
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	2	$6	9	0	+9	Up	+$1	05-12 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	5	$5	113	1	+112	Up	$-3	05-13 01:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 01:55:35	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x7a6f43…
05-13 01:55:34	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x53fd9d…
05-13 01:52:56	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x1e8ffa…
05-13 01:46:45	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x249ae5…
05-13 01:46:42	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb57484…
05-13 01:46:40	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf3305e…
05-13 01:46:17	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xdcbb92…
05-13 01:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x2a6e2c…
05-13 01:40:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3fdd80…
05-13 01:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdb058c…
05-13 01:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xf45aa4…
05-13 01:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xdd5151…
05-13 01:32:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x192d67…
05-13 01:32:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x2394be…
05-13 01:30:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x819c49…
05-13 01:27:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x44f8a6…
05-13 01:26:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x820a89…
05-13 01:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x9aa609…
05-13 01:22:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcde485…
05-13 01:21:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1d624d…
05-13 01:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x2e9744…
05-13 01:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5aeb96…
05-13 01:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x50d340…
05-13 00:02:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x899df6…
05-13 00:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7e8f57…
05-13 00:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x64a648…
05-12 23:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x40b944…
05-12 23:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	12	89¢	$10	0xae1c71…
05-12 23:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xcca197…
05-12 23:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9f6f14…
05-12 23:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x6c8dc2…
05-12 23:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	8	92¢	$8	0x6efd5b…
05-12 23:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x9f068e…
05-12 23:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd71e04…
05-12 23:40:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x684677…
05-12 23:37:01	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x641cfc…
05-12 23:35:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x336899…
05-12 23:34:01	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0d3094…
05-12 23:33:10	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xeb004b…
05-12 23:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x289707…
05-12 23:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa37736…
05-12 23:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe246e8…
05-12 23:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x072552…
05-12 23:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x59d230…
05-12 23:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfe2461…
05-12 23:24:25	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5a72d3…
05-12 23:23:22	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x353595…
05-12 23:23:15	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc1d4bd…
05-12 23:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe2cd7c…
05-12 23:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x45e3cd…
05-12 23:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x9cb0eb…
05-12 23:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xec88cb…
05-12 23:07:21	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x5f0a9d…
05-12 23:05:59	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd7cc67…
05-12 22:58:28	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc233f4…
05-12 22:58:19	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8465c4…
05-12 22:53:13	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x1d5181…
05-12 22:52:13	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x39fe64…
05-12 22:39:07	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x1a4385…
05-12 22:38:57	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x48fb62…
05-12 22:33:54	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x065857…
05-12 22:32:39	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf80671…
05-12 22:10:52	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x276637…
05-12 06:03:26	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0x97e1f2…
05-12 06:03:00	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x076f74…
05-12 05:44:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x845a09…
05-12 05:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x836ef2…
05-12 05:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xe2d1c9…
05-12 05:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x651c89…
05-12 05:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x06e0b8…
05-12 05:29:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x44d7ce…
05-12 05:29:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x01b305…
05-12 05:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd25aa6…
05-12 05:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbf97e0…
05-12 05:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xba6a33…
05-12 05:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1776e0…
05-12 05:24:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x104515…
05-12 05:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9003fb…
05-12 05:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x86a6f2…
05-12 05:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7bf323…
05-12 05:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x072889…
05-12 05:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd6788d…
05-12 05:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x720762…
05-12 05:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x62478d…
05-12 05:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x39786b…
05-12 05:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x935376…
05-12 04:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xc9b053…
05-12 04:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x5d3636…
05-12 04:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xfbb505…
05-12 04:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x83415e…
05-12 04:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x82c0a3…
05-12 04:33:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x27bf0c…
05-12 04:33:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0xae9fb5…
05-12 04:29:33	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x290bbf…
05-12 04:29:31	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xeca13d…
05-12 04:29:31	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xcc312b…
05-12 04:29:31	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xcc0155…
05-12 04:29:29	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x688f4c…
05-12 04:29:29	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x620341…
05-12 04:29:29	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x1a8749…