Phony-Television — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.13K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.8%

Resolved

Trades

267

lifetime

Volume

$154.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$577

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 19:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 20% $-1,130

Other

41% — —

Politics

5% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	41	$74.8K	45,532	45,532	+0	open	—	01-16 20:52
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 15	84	$57.3K	32,325	33,583	-1,258	open	—	01-15 07:55
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	26	$3.8K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	01-15 08:40
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	14	$3.3K	2,220	2,220	+0	open	—	01-19 07:16
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	11	$3.2K	0	3,726	-3,726	open	—	01-15 10:57
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$1.5K	1,585	0	+1,585	open	—	05-01 19:29
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	11	$1.5K	1,797	1,797	+0	Yes	$-1,204	05-04 23:23
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	12	$1.4K	1,625	208	+1,418	open	—	01-21 11:56
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	3	$1.3K	1,910	1,910	+0	open	—	01-09 12:46
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	10	$1.2K	1,206	1,206	+0	open	—	01-12 14:32
over 100m committed to the ranger public sale 221 979 762 217 192	2	$1.2K	1,549	1,549	+0	open	—	01-10 08:59
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	3	$1.1K	1,530	0	+1,530	open	—	04-27 16:20
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	14	$956	7,460	7,460	+0	open	—	01-16 19:21
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$562	661	0	+661	open	—	02-16 08:30
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$221	0	881	-881	Yes	+$221	05-04 08:28
wta vidmano fruhvir 2026 06 08	2	$146	347	347	+0	open	—	06-08 19:50
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$143	2,321	2,321	+0	open	—	04-27 16:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	2	$111	651	0	+651	Up	$-111	05-04 23:28
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	15	$105	548	546	+2	open	—	04-27 16:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$86	61	61	+0	open	—	06-01 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$24	167	0	+167	Down	$-24	05-04 23:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	1	$12	34	0	+34	Down	$-12	05-13 09:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 19:50:55	wta vidmano fruhvir 2026 06 08	Darja Vidmanova	SELL	347	25¢	$87	0x1e1b49…
06-08 19:23:48	wta vidmano fruhvir 2026 06 08	Darja Vidmanova	BUY	347	17¢	$59	0x1ee72f…
06-01 17:44:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x162b14…
06-01 16:20:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	43¢	$26	0x0e989e…
05-13 09:08:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	34	34¢	$12	0xc7f0c4…
05-04 23:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x733a2f…
05-04 23:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0x3657fd…
05-04 23:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	149	8¢	$11	0xc59f7c…
05-04 23:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	502	20¢	$100	0xbe930e…
05-04 23:23:34	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	197	8¢	$16	0x55bfe8…
05-04 23:23:04	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,600	8¢	$131	0x6f8d2c…
05-04 08:33:44	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	70	67¢	$47	0xe7d89b…
05-04 08:28:36	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	174	24¢	$42	0xe6e348…
05-04 08:24:50	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	95	66¢	$62	0xa21f45…
05-04 08:23:56	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x2167f2…
05-04 08:23:38	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xa15fc8…
05-04 08:23:18	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	150	26¢	$39	0x97df41…
05-04 08:20:44	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xe102fc…
05-04 08:20:40	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xc18574…
05-04 08:20:16	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	89	70¢	$62	0x937001…
05-04 08:17:52	Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	472	25¢	$118	0xca60bc…
05-04 08:02:24	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	72¢	$44	0x42540f…
05-04 07:55:32	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	72¢	$14	0x7682e0…
05-04 00:49:24	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,132	77¢	$872	0x07f86c…
05-03 21:12:02	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	137	77¢	$105	0x3e4441…
05-03 15:43:04	Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	123	77¢	$95	0x4beafe…
05-01 19:29:20	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	862	96¢	$827	0xe37a99…
05-01 19:29:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	723	96¢	$694	0xde5a4b…
04-27 16:20:16	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xe661ee…
04-27 16:19:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,321	0¢	$9	0x5d1680…
04-27 16:19:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	546	3¢	$18	0xc9fc6b…
04-27 11:50:16	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	657	72¢	$473	0xf67ce3…
04-27 10:36:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x37b0be…
04-27 10:32:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x992a09…
04-27 10:31:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	16¢	$16	0xadbf96…
04-27 10:17:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xff740e…
04-27 10:17:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	16¢	$7	0xfcccd9…
04-27 10:09:08	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$58	0x0bfda4…
04-27 10:08:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,321	6¢	$75	0xf0a2c7…
04-27 10:05:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x7e6b07…
04-27 10:05:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x8892db…
04-27 10:01:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	16¢	$9	0xef4f7e…
04-27 10:00:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xf01de9…
04-27 09:59:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xfd6252…
04-27 09:59:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xab11a2…
04-27 09:59:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	16¢	$5	0x0184c9…
04-27 09:58:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	16¢	$15	0xf6576a…
04-27 09:58:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	16¢	$16	0xb14784…
04-27 08:59:22	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	830	71¢	$589	0x988897…
02-16 08:30:29	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	661	85¢	$562	0xfb6a04…
01-21 11:56:58	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$6	0xe6f687…
01-21 11:52:42	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	106	84¢	$89	0x6a8ba3…
01-21 10:00:34	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	94	84¢	$79	0xe2a519…
01-21 09:53:00	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xd7443a…
01-21 08:20:06	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	208	85¢	$177	0x99ce21…
01-19 08:29:16	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	831	79¢	$657	0xbf7b10…
01-19 08:04:34	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x456791…
01-19 07:40:22	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x5f3f4c…
01-19 07:25:06	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x36515e…
01-19 07:23:04	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xee9d11…
01-19 07:23:04	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	505	75¢	$379	0x5f29d6…
01-19 07:23:04	Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x44b209…
01-19 07:16:24	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	No	SELL	366	89¢	$324	0x4d4596…
01-19 07:14:06	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	No	SELL	511	90¢	$460	0x4f16e1…
01-19 07:06:30	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	No	SELL	333	91¢	$303	0x6c5693…
01-17 16:13:40	will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	No	BUY	1,210	82¢	$992	0xca1106…
01-16 20:52:06	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	44,993	100¢	$44,948	0x8dc1d7…
01-16 20:43:08	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	156	100¢	$156	0xc0b94c…
01-16 19:26:38	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x1020a2…
01-16 19:21:58	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,345	1¢	$23	0x219cda…
01-16 19:11:22	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9959a7…
01-16 16:36:00	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,112	6¢	$65	0x6b0ff4…
01-16 16:28:54	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x973d40…
01-16 16:28:08	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,202	3¢	$34	0x7c039f…
01-16 16:02:20	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x013ad1…
01-16 13:43:02	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	322	97¢	$311	0x51d3a6…
01-16 13:33:18	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,195	1¢	$31	0x44b108…
01-16 13:24:30	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,419	1¢	$20	0x106521…
01-16 13:24:18	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0xf49c4d…
01-16 13:14:22	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	717	1¢	$10	0x0df930…
01-16 13:12:46	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	93	1¢	$1	0x174d49…
01-16 12:36:44	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	632	1¢	$9	0x286398…
01-16 12:24:14	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	246	97¢	$238	0xa7a46b…
01-15 11:00:30	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	63	69¢	$43	0x0b6bdf…
01-15 11:00:14	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x8da4bc…
01-15 10:59:54	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	450	68¢	$306	0xaa0222…
01-15 10:57:42	Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	SELL	407	86¢	$351	0x4c1dd6…
01-15 09:02:00	Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,682	9¢	$144	0xf81db5…
01-15 08:57:30	Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	9,400	72¢	$6,768	0x094c37…
01-15 08:40:56	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	3,264	16¢	$522	0x06d447…
01-15 08:38:54	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	188	16¢	$30	0x543071…
01-15 08:38:36	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0x292a5c…
01-15 08:37:28	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	27	16¢	$4	0xd3bf07…
01-15 08:37:22	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	456	16¢	$73	0x0ed75d…
01-15 08:36:28	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	81	16¢	$13	0xd92771…
01-15 08:30:18	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	160	16¢	$26	0x06a8d4…
01-15 08:28:38	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0x880615…
01-15 08:25:58	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0x23e294…
01-15 08:25:36	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	125	16¢	$20	0x83cafa…
01-15 08:24:42	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xd01556…