Mellow-Jaguar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$60

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.9%

Resolved

121

Trades

918

lifetime

Volume

$4.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 05-21 14:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 51% +$60

Other

25% 40% +$0

Politics

16% — —

Sports

12% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 4	9	$585	4,373	873	+3,500	open	—	03-07 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	1	$122	344	0	+344	open	—	05-19 20:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	9	$119	84	84	+0	open	—	05-18 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	4	$117	74	74	+0	Up	+$5	05-12 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	3	$107	60	60	+0	Down	+$7	05-12 16:54
btc updown 5m 1775311200	2	$105	55	54	+0	open	—	04-04 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$102	54	54	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	2	$91	51	51	+0	Down	+$11	05-11 12:09
ucl gal liv1 2026 03 10 gal	2	$75	62	62	+0	open	—	03-10 19:46
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$74	61	61	+0	open	—	03-05 10:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	8	$72	134	134	+0	open	—	04-08 02:28
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	14	$69	458	458	+0	open	—	04-08 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	1	$68	201	0	+201	open	—	05-18 19:17
mls tor col 2026 04 04 draw	2	$67	52	52	+0	open	—	04-04 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$59	66	0	+66	open	—	05-16 12:37
btc updown 5m 1775310900	2	$58	41	40	+2	open	—	04-04 14:01
bl2 fck dus 2026 04 04 total 4pt5	2	$55	30	30	+0	open	—	04-04 13:27
efa mnc liv 2026 04 04 total 4pt5	6	$55	60	23	+37	open	—	04-04 13:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$50	53	0	+53	Down	+$3	05-12 16:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	1	$45	82	0	+82	open	—	05-16 12:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	1	$44	123	0	+123	open	—	05-16 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	5	$43	36	36	+0	open	—	05-18 15:24
lal mal rea 2026 04 04 mal	2	$42	32	31	+1	open	—	04-04 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	3	$41	29	29	+0	open	—	05-16 15:19
lal mal rea 2026 04 04 rea	2	$37	28	27	+1	open	—	04-04 16:14
mlb tor cws 2026 04 04	4	$36	26	25	+0	open	—	04-04 23:14
atp choinsk muller 2026 04 04	4	$36	32	32	+1	open	—	04-04 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	9	$31	78	10	+69	open	—	05-18 12:46
cs2 nrg voc 2026 04 04	2	$31	18	18	+0	open	—	04-04 10:38
atp burruch nakashi 2026 04 02	6	$31	28	27	+0	open	—	04-02 22:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 14:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0xbb79a3…
05-21 14:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x141224…
05-21 14:17:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x88828a…
05-21 14:11:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x27828a…
05-21 14:06:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x01d2c2…
05-21 13:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0xcc1739…
05-21 13:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x66557b…
05-21 13:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	7	75¢	$6	0xda7491…
05-21 13:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xd9b6ef…
05-21 13:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	54¢	$5	0xc16d9c…
05-21 13:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	55¢	$5	0x90ebb5…
05-20 11:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	44¢	$1	0x184ecb…
05-20 11:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x7af52d…
05-20 10:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x9fe494…
05-20 10:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x526071…
05-19 20:10:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	344	36¢	$122	0x6918c1…
05-19 20:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	45	6¢	$3	0x9f3860…
05-19 20:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0xc87e1f…
05-19 20:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0x84d1ee…
05-19 19:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x042bae…
05-19 19:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x7906b5…
05-19 18:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	38	20¢	$8	0x89b914…
05-19 18:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0x984b20…
05-19 17:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xf00365…
05-19 17:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe2d752…
05-19 17:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x6c0aa2…
05-19 17:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xd00b08…
05-19 17:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd11304…
05-19 17:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xb13c07…
05-19 17:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x99e3b3…
05-19 17:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x736f42…
05-19 11:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x3ce311…
05-19 11:28:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x44fbb3…
05-19 11:28:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1b97c7…
05-19 11:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x91f4ef…
05-19 11:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf12fca…
05-19 11:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf078c0…
05-19 11:12:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xdd4314…
05-19 11:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe8db5b…
05-19 11:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x90971d…
05-19 11:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xcfc014…
05-19 11:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x7127e4…
05-19 11:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf7dac4…
05-19 09:48:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb8e754…
05-18 20:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x92cf94…
05-18 20:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0d2458…
05-18 20:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4be2b9…
05-18 20:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x7ca8a2…
05-18 20:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x556654…
05-18 19:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xcfa97b…
05-18 19:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x40c1e1…
05-18 19:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	201	34¢	$68	0xb3fcc5…
05-18 19:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xbfe8f6…
05-18 19:01:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xc34ebb…
05-18 19:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0x5864b3…
05-18 18:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x9fe6ad…
05-18 18:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xcd3f9e…
05-18 18:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x7b4c65…
05-18 18:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc1b71b…
05-18 18:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xc0446a…
05-18 18:56:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x7b93b3…
05-18 18:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x08a103…
05-18 18:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xa95dff…
05-18 18:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3386ea…
05-18 18:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe102c4…
05-18 18:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x57971f…
05-18 18:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa1a665…
05-18 16:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x64e4f8…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xf5676e…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xcc0c33…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xbe8bd4…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xb37c1d…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x84905d…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x61b50f…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x6069d7…
05-18 16:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x19b557…
05-18 16:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	84	51¢	$43	0xbf0a52…
05-18 16:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x7f8666…
05-18 15:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0x3ff90f…
05-18 15:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x0daaa2…
05-18 15:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	20	42¢	$9	0xd76327…
05-18 15:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x765900…
05-18 15:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xac8e3e…
05-18 15:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xca4fbd…
05-18 15:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xdbcb91…
05-18 15:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	13	87¢	$12	0xc61171…
05-18 15:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xbe4e4a…
05-18 15:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0x7aa8ea…
05-18 15:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	17	54¢	$9	0x0d04d6…
05-18 15:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x98b7e3…
05-18 15:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	21	35¢	$8	0xd5071c…
05-18 15:08:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xa57541…
05-18 12:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x0cff4f…
05-18 12:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc85cb2…
05-18 12:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x86e85f…
05-18 12:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xc99754…
05-18 12:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x4ba25d…
05-18 12:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8d88f6…
05-18 12:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x812d9d…
05-18 11:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x8efb8a…