Probable-Power — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.4%

Resolved

Trades

705

lifetime

Volume

$2.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 06-30 22:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 46% $-16

Other

7% — —

Politics

2% 0% $-3

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	4	$47	38	38	+0	Up	+$29	05-06 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	6	$42	36	36	+0	Down	+$26	05-06 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	4	$39	50	50	+0	Down	+$13	05-07 17:48
btc updown 5m 1773863100	6	$32	33	33	+0	open	—	03-18 19:48
btc updown 5m 1774123200	5	$25	38	37	+0	open	—	03-21 20:03
btc updown 5m 1773692100	4	$24	30	29	+0	open	—	03-16 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	3	$24	48	19	+29	Up	+$4	05-07 18:38
btc updown 5m 1773683400	4	$23	43	43	+0	open	—	03-16 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	6	$23	25	25	+0	open	—	05-23 06:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	5	$22	70	70	+0	open	—	05-24 15:33
btc updown 5m 1773864600	6	$22	30	30	+0	open	—	03-18 20:12
btc updown 5m 1773857700	7	$19	145	25	+120	open	—	03-18 18:18
btc updown 5m 1773608400	2	$18	21	21	+0	open	—	03-15 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	3	$18	29	29	+0	Down	+$6	05-07 18:28
epl new mun 2026 03 04 new	2	$18	18	18	+0	open	—	03-04 22:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	4	$18	33	33	+0	Up	+$6	05-05 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$17	19	19	+0	open	—	05-21 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$17	22	22	+0	Up	+$7	05-07 18:53
btc updown 5m 1773695400	4	$17	29	29	+0	open	—	03-16 21:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	4	$17	46	36	+10	open	—	05-19 12:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	3	$17	64	64	+0	open	—	05-18 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	3	$17	51	51	+0	open	—	05-19 21:13
btc updown 5m 1774193400	4	$16	29	28	+0	open	—	03-22 15:33
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$16	71	71	+0	open	—	03-05 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	4	$16	17	17	+0	Down	+$4	05-05 19:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	3	$15	24	24	+0	Down	+$5	05-06 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$15	26	26	+0	Down	+$5	05-05 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	3	$15	42	42	+0	open	—	05-24 15:18
btc updown 5m 1773872400	4	$15	34	34	+0	open	—	03-18 22:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	3	$14	24	24	+0	Down	+$4	05-06 17:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 22:26:43	btc updown 5m 1782858300	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x618dc7…
06-30 17:18:04	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x1a04bb…
06-29 22:11:01	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 btts second half	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6690fd…
06-28 21:24:38	btc updown 5m 1782681600	Up	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x823be3…
06-28 21:22:40	btc updown 5m 1782681600	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0b5857…
06-28 20:28:11	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 spread away 1pt5	Canada	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xb820a2…
06-24 21:56:44	btc updown 5m 1782338100	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x1c2c35…
06-24 21:32:55	btc updown 5m 1782336600	Up	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x65a79c…
06-24 21:31:49	btc updown 5m 1782336600	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x65f06c…
06-23 22:22:28	btc updown 5m 1782253200	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xe7b264…
06-23 22:16:37	btc updown 5m 1782252900	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4ec413…
05-26 07:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x599b1d…
05-25 22:33:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xdfb2cd…
05-24 21:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xbaa79a…
05-24 21:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc58aac…
05-24 21:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x542f1a…
05-24 21:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xba8a96…
05-24 21:28:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1dbdd5…
05-24 21:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x4c8998…
05-24 21:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	81¢	$3	0x6dcc44…
05-24 21:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x0dccfc…
05-24 21:10:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x116edc…
05-24 18:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xa67cfb…
05-24 18:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x9a4a06…
05-24 18:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x9424a3…
05-24 18:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x88220c…
05-24 18:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x415a24…
05-24 18:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	12	38¢	$4	0xe1f96e…
05-24 18:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xd341c0…
05-24 15:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	13	39¢	$5	0x764626…
05-24 15:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x0397f0…
05-24 15:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	18	24¢	$4	0xd804ad…
05-24 15:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xd6a347…
05-24 15:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	56	16¢	$9	0x184334…
05-24 15:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x20334e…
05-24 15:32:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xdd00f5…
05-24 15:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	14	33¢	$4	0xa3c868…
05-24 15:30:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x2d951e…
05-24 15:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	27	15¢	$4	0xbf58be…
05-24 15:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x115e10…
05-24 15:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	42	22¢	$9	0x780709…
05-24 15:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0x32f8f3…
05-24 15:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xde475a…
05-24 15:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x2469fd…
05-24 15:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x7b8f0f…
05-24 15:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xfff2db…
05-24 15:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	17	17¢	$3	0x524a81…
05-24 15:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x420901…
05-24 07:41:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xc19f28…
05-24 07:39:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0x8ae9e0…
05-24 07:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6365eb…
05-24 07:22:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe84eeb…
05-24 07:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xcc375d…
05-24 07:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa0a75f…
05-23 21:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xf7cc77…
05-23 21:47:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xca3460…
05-23 21:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	16	25¢	$4	0x41c302…
05-23 21:47:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x9bf954…
05-23 21:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x1be427…
05-23 21:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	21	39¢	$8	0xdf5e52…
05-23 21:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xc2e7f7…
05-23 21:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0x5594ad…
05-23 21:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x95d337…
05-23 21:01:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x229f09…
05-23 20:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	18	54¢	$10	0xe0d170…
05-23 20:52:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x75ce5b…
05-23 20:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x184e74…
05-23 14:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xcec33b…
05-23 14:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xa9c9ee…
05-23 14:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x1068b5…
05-23 14:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x3672ea…
05-23 14:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbee809…
05-23 14:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x64710a…
05-23 14:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf0f39c…
05-23 14:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$3	0xd98397…
05-23 14:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6c16f8…
05-23 14:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x258ad8…
05-23 12:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	38¢	$5	0x849a3a…
05-23 12:57:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xca867a…
05-23 12:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0x097718…
05-23 12:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x75d02b…
05-23 12:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xb9642d…
05-23 07:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2e2526…
05-23 07:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xd305ba…
05-23 07:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x64495b…
05-23 07:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xc9ea8f…
05-23 07:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa490a3…
05-23 07:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x070375…
05-23 06:58:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0x39eb7a…
05-23 06:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xa2ece6…
05-23 06:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	60¢	$5	0xebb14d…
05-23 06:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x805e04…
05-23 06:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0x246b6a…
05-23 06:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xa5604e…
05-23 06:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xe7aeda…
05-23 06:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0xd00667…
05-23 06:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x14a2c0…
05-22 21:17:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x69dbb8…
05-22 20:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x7b7097…
05-22 20:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x3c9151…