Icky-Ceremony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

Trades

189

lifetime

Volume

$22.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$116

Open exposure

$95

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-17 09:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

50% — —

Other

45% — —

Politics

4% 50% $-124

Sports

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No		-100	$-80	95¢	$-95	$-15	06-17 09:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	14	$2.3K	1,188	1,188	+0	open	—	04-22 06:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$1.9K	980	980	+0	open	—	04-13 21:41
will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	11	$1.1K	537	537	+0	open	—	02-10 03:17
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	5	$882	460	460	+0	open	—	03-13 14:59
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	8	$849	430	430	+0	open	—	04-01 00:51
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	5	$783	410	410	+0	open	—	01-26 02:21
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$716	720	0	+720	open	—	01-14 07:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$668	340	340	+0	open	—	04-04 03:03
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$647	650	0	+650	open	—	01-28 12:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$624	317	317	+0	open	—	05-13 13:51
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$598	300	300	+0	open	—	03-26 09:03
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$534	540	0	+540	open	—	03-24 01:33
will bitcoin dip to 70k in january 2026	1	$448	450	0	+450	open	—	01-30 09:14
will ethereum dip to 2200 in january 2026 518	4	$445	225	225	+0	open	—	01-20 13:17
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	4	$442	230	230	+0	open	—	03-15 02:25
Over $70M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	1	$397	401	0	+401	open	—	02-04 02:17
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	3	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	03-27 05:20
will the fed cutcutpause in the next three decisions octdecjan	5	$373	198	198	+0	open	—	01-20 13:48
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?	1	$363	370	0	+370	open	—	01-06 09:08
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	7	$361	187	187	+0	open	—	01-22 01:08
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	1	$353	380	0	+380	open	—	03-10 07:10
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?	4	$323	166	166	+0	open	—	02-04 18:47
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	9	$293	160	160	+0	open	—	03-11 02:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$279	144	144	+0	open	—	03-28 23:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$273	140	140	+0	open	—	05-08 16:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$260	135	135	+0	open	—	03-18 19:26
Netanyahu out by May 31?	2	$257	130	130	+0	open	—	05-13 20:29
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	2	$229	120	120	+0	open	—	05-12 13:58
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$215	110	110	+0	Yes	+$1	04-24 21:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$215	120	120	+0	open	—	05-09 11:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 09:03:28	StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0xb02497…
05-30 14:05:31	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xeef974…
05-13 20:29:10	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	130	99¢	$129	0xd53fdf…
05-13 13:51:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	317	99¢	$313	0x206f97…
05-12 13:58:28	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	SELL	120	96¢	$115	0x3277c1…
05-09 11:44:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	120	91¢	$109	0xf1ab54…
05-09 01:45:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	317	98¢	$312	0x76f14b…
05-09 01:45:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	120	88¢	$106	0x058b34…
05-08 16:35:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	140	98¢	$137	0xb7ecd5…
05-08 06:48:14	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0xe0201c…
05-08 06:45:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x3257c0…
05-08 02:07:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	140	97¢	$136	0x344465…
05-08 02:06:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x95f918…
05-08 02:04:30	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0xef15bd…
04-30 03:10:30	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	SELL	127	58¢	$74	0xa54931…
04-24 21:02:12	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x6e55b2…
04-22 06:54:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	236	99¢	$235	0xeaf0a3…
04-22 06:43:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe29190…
04-22 06:21:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	263	99¢	$261	0x26d130…
04-17 13:39:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0x33de1e…
04-17 13:38:06	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	110	98¢	$107	0x98592e…
04-17 13:36:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	135	92¢	$124	0x05c727…
04-13 21:41:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	980	99¢	$974	0xbcf43e…
04-12 21:42:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0x658999…
04-08 02:33:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	980	98¢	$960	0x57db20…
04-07 23:20:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	341	97¢	$331	0x8f7268…
04-04 03:03:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	340	98¢	$335	0x151a63…
04-01 11:29:43	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	127	91¢	$116	0x9f0d70…
04-01 11:28:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	340	98¢	$334	0x6e7743…
04-01 05:41:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	60	97¢	$59	0xa977a8…
04-01 05:39:23	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0x6a72d4…
04-01 05:38:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0xd79f6d…
04-01 05:38:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$44	0x174137…
04-01 05:37:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xa05e72…
04-01 05:37:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0xe5a6da…
04-01 00:51:23	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x6e2c08…
04-01 00:49:05	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xcc62b3…
04-01 00:48:55	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x9fab53…
04-01 00:12:25	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x34c900…
03-31 23:42:37	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$55	0x9a1e1e…
03-31 07:50:01	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	230	99¢	$229	0x092669…
03-28 23:05:20	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	144	98¢	$141	0xb6e324…
03-27 05:20:57	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	176	99¢	$174	0x65c745…
03-27 05:18:13	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf8d801…
03-27 01:53:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	144	96¢	$138	0x8f9c54…
03-27 01:49:53	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xae7ae2…
03-26 09:03:01	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0x3a4059…
03-26 02:10:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	588	92¢	$541	0x767823…
03-24 11:02:31	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x45df25…
03-24 10:55:33	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xf19654…
03-24 01:34:03	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x68a5e0…
03-24 01:33:35	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	540	99¢	$534	0xe878e8…
03-23 12:05:23	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xc63de6…
03-22 03:18:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x85f2cc…
03-20 13:22:03	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x8fd381…
03-20 08:35:55	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x433583…
03-20 08:34:51	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	300	100¢	$298	0xcc1455…
03-20 08:34:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xa471a8…
03-20 08:33:37	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x56e0c4…
03-19 09:16:57	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xc21711…
03-18 19:26:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	135	96¢	$130	0x3f2f68…
03-18 12:05:23	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x8cbdeb…
03-18 12:04:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	135	96¢	$130	0x8e1721…
03-15 02:25:47	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x2fc800…
03-14 19:24:43	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xef28f6…
03-13 14:59:59	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0xb78a35…
03-13 13:08:21	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4c07ab…
03-13 12:22:43	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0xd5224b…
03-13 12:19:49	will solana dip to 40 in march 2026	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x53d93a…
03-13 12:11:47	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$129	0x0d5f56…
03-13 12:09:03	EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	90	97¢	$88	0xcc2274…
03-13 12:06:31	will solana dip to 40 in march 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x2e2919…
03-13 12:05:41	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x0aa76d…
03-11 02:44:57	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0x348f40…
03-11 00:47:45	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xe90e81…
03-10 19:35:55	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x2b97a4…
03-10 18:30:41	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x9d8a02…
03-10 16:23:21	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xd61d7d…
03-10 15:41:01	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x2ffbd2…
03-10 07:11:03	will solana dip to 30 in march 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x8132c8…
03-10 07:10:35	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	No	BUY	380	93¢	$353	0x7b3715…
03-10 07:05:31	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x67ecdd…
03-10 07:04:37	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe2106d…
03-10 07:04:15	will solana dip to 30 in march 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf1eb7f…
02-11 15:09:59	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x484516…
02-10 08:06:43	Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x83f70c…
02-10 08:00:45	Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x877e43…
02-10 03:17:55	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xbe9d3d…
02-10 03:14:37	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	162	99¢	$160	0x46301a…
02-10 03:13:03	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x0a7dd5…
02-10 03:09:37	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xee478f…
02-10 03:09:19	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x7dd4b5…
02-10 03:01:49	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x85b0ec…
02-10 02:57:21	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xd1095d…
02-10 02:52:27	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	170	99¢	$168	0xb8ce2f…
02-10 02:49:35	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x4e197d…
02-10 02:44:01	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe3ca72…
02-10 02:39:51	Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xffdecf…
02-10 02:39:15	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	BUY	537	99¢	$530	0x7aa45f…
02-06 12:22:43	Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x18d626…