Friendly-Kale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.17K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,132

lifetime

Volume

$766.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$677

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 07-24 17:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

83% 0% $-574

Other

17% 0% $-598

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	26	$86.3K	59,765	59,765	+0	open	—	05-30 05:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	27	$59.7K	19,410	47,435	-28,025	open	—	06-01 13:32
iran closes its airspace by june 8	8	$51.2K	31,134	31,134	+0	open	—	06-07 21:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	47	$48.0K	40,928	40,928	+0	open	—	04-08 01:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	98	$47.7K	525,983	26,346	+499,637	open	—	06-17 22:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	11	$47.7K	33,999	33,999	+0	open	—	05-26 17:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	49	$41.3K	26,400	26,400	+0	open	—	06-19 21:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	34	$35.6K	13,315	27,009	-13,694	open	—	06-28 18:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	49	$27.5K	17,196	17,196	+0	open	—	05-25 03:33
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	18	$24.4K	14,105	14,105	+0	open	—	06-18 21:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	34	$21.2K	11,736	11,736	+0	open	—	05-11 06:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	10	$19.0K	26,170	26,170	+0	open	—	02-28 06:56
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	26	$17.6K	12,000	12,000	+0	open	—	06-29 22:25
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	54	$16.9K	10,100	9,872	+228	open	—	06-16 16:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	16	$16.7K	18,773	6,666	+12,107	open	—	05-23 20:31
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	28	$16.0K	11,893	11,893	+0	open	—	06-18 21:19
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	4	$14.8K	11,344	11,344	+0	open	—	01-14 17:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$12.9K	8,522	8,522	-0	open	—	07-15 02:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$12.7K	7,400	7,400	+0	open	—	04-29 04:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	37	$12.1K	7,500	7,500	+0	open	—	03-08 22:25
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	34	$9.8K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	07-16 15:04
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$9.8K	6,600	6,600	+0	open	—	01-14 22:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2	$9.0K	7,204	7,204	-0	open	—	06-07 21:10
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$9.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	06-15 21:40
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	15	$7.9K	6,066	6,066	+0	open	—	06-08 02:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$5.9K	3,300	3,300	+0	open	—	04-04 16:37
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	8	$5.8K	14,500	14,500	+0	open	—	05-12 19:42
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	13	$5.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-29 04:13
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15?	2	$5.3K	2,665	2,665	+0	open	—	04-02 17:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	16	$4.6K	11,440	11,440	+0	No	$-598	04-07 20:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 17:16:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,500	20¢	$302	0x8dd2c5…
07-24 17:16:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,000	16¢	$160	0x77e6fd…
07-23 18:10:24	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xd03d16…
07-23 18:10:24	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xc36f3c…
07-23 18:10:24	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x853ab2…
07-23 18:10:22	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0xba2c37…
07-23 18:10:22	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	234	50¢	$117	0x414794…
07-23 18:10:21	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	234	50¢	$117	0x482f34…
07-23 18:10:21	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	234	50¢	$117	0x191cd5…
07-23 18:10:19	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	224	50¢	$112	0x76e520…
07-23 18:09:12	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1,072	83¢	$887	0xc2d2dd…
07-23 17:26:03	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	156	78¢	$121	0x461970…
07-23 07:47:31	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	600	52¢	$312	0x685494…
07-22 21:46:42	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	26¢	$260	0xde0db5…
07-22 21:46:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	330	31¢	$102	0x270628…
07-22 21:46:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	170	30¢	$51	0x81b8a7…
07-22 20:13:03	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	47	34¢	$16	0xfcabb2…
07-22 20:12:48	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	58	15¢	$9	0x52552d…
07-22 20:12:27	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	117	34¢	$40	0xdc5833…
07-22 20:10:21	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	500	67¢	$337	0x702bdd…
07-22 20:10:06	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	1,000	67¢	$674	0x32bd0c…
07-20 16:07:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	410	65¢	$266	0xdd8b49…
07-18 04:06:42	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	199	70¢	$139	0x37eb56…
07-18 04:05:28	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	267	70¢	$187	0x937b04…
07-18 04:03:13	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	267	70¢	$187	0x86188b…
07-18 04:03:06	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	267	70¢	$187	0xac02cb…
07-18 03:47:15	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xc5a426…
07-18 03:38:22	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0x343c15…
07-18 02:01:46	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	160	71¢	$114	0xd4ecd4…
07-18 01:42:24	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	500	40¢	$198	0xb740ce…
07-18 01:41:34	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	500	39¢	$197	0xcf883a…
07-18 01:27:48	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x75a0e0…
07-18 01:27:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	211	70¢	$148	0x38f4b0…
07-17 23:16:04	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	2,836	12¢	$338	0x1b2e2b…
07-17 22:20:51	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x1d195b…
07-17 22:10:40	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$43	0x19aa07…
07-17 21:57:39	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1,940	68¢	$1,319	0xdacb4d…
07-17 21:56:04	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	321	21¢	$69	0x97aa52…
07-17 21:55:06	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	66	12¢	$8	0x7627a3…
07-16 15:04:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	4,865	89¢	$4,330	0x08223c…
07-16 14:14:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x60a1cf…
07-16 14:09:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	337	89¢	$300	0xccfa0e…
07-16 14:02:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x3f5959…
07-16 13:26:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	6	89¢	$6	0xbba8ba…
07-16 11:39:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	43	89¢	$38	0xf303e2…
07-16 10:54:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	53	89¢	$47	0x8618f6…
07-16 10:09:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x1217b1…
07-16 09:22:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	135	89¢	$120	0xd11534…
07-16 08:32:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	42	89¢	$37	0xd67b7b…
07-16 07:26:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	202	89¢	$180	0xdd63a7…
07-16 05:46:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	34	89¢	$30	0xf5cbf5…
07-16 04:18:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xd09ca8…
07-16 04:10:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x11861e…
07-16 03:33:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	61	89¢	$54	0x6d05f3…
07-15 02:30:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,200	98¢	$1,180	0x6f93cf…
07-15 02:30:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	800	98¢	$787	0xec18f2…
07-14 19:23:29	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	191	39¢	$75	0x0f188c…
07-13 18:32:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x3b6470…
07-11 14:18:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2,343	74¢	$1,734	0x60a802…
07-11 14:12:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	192	74¢	$142	0xd95574…
07-11 01:53:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	231	74¢	$171	0x0d256d…
07-11 01:20:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	96	74¢	$71	0xbe52ac…
07-11 01:12:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0xb760a3…
07-11 01:07:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xf6942f…
07-11 01:05:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x3160bf…
07-11 01:05:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	213	74¢	$158	0xd76db0…
07-11 01:04:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x06d897…
07-11 01:04:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	21	74¢	$15	0x6cbff8…
07-07 17:39:40	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 spread away 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xa83cd7…
07-07 08:40:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x1792dc…
07-07 08:32:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,000	74¢	$740	0xb387d3…
07-07 08:32:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,189	74¢	$880	0x460c48…
07-07 08:02:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	38	74¢	$28	0xe1182a…
07-07 07:45:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x223328…
07-07 07:24:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe0e4d5…
07-07 07:15:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xf172f5…
07-07 06:55:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0x570eb6…
07-07 06:54:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x0871aa…
07-07 06:54:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	537	74¢	$397	0x699a0a…
07-07 00:22:41	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	SELL	1,017	71¢	$722	0xb5923b…
07-06 20:47:16	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	150	39¢	$58	0xeeb203…
07-06 18:44:38	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	1,017	47¢	$478	0x427fd3…
06-30 20:09:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	400	22¢	$88	0x516090…
06-29 22:25:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	6,000	85¢	$5,100	0x99388d…
06-29 22:11:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	6,000	85¢	$5,100	0xb3a6b5…
06-28 18:50:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x56487d…
06-26 06:35:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	90¢	$1,796	0x5b1b3e…
06-26 06:02:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	5,369	58¢	$3,114	0x36984e…
06-26 05:46:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	90	58¢	$52	0xfdea14…
06-26 05:45:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	39	58¢	$23	0xd01dea…
06-26 05:45:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	46	58¢	$27	0xc6db53…
06-26 05:45:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	47	58¢	$27	0x868f3a…
06-26 05:45:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	45	58¢	$26	0x82daf7…
06-26 05:45:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	55	58¢	$32	0x4f69d3…
06-26 05:45:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x5bd9f6…
06-26 05:45:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x6240b6…
06-26 05:43:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0xbf336a…
06-26 05:43:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x7daafa…
06-26 05:43:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	3	58¢	$1	0x0fe487…
06-26 05:43:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x5e4a12…