Hard-Basket — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$51

Unrealized P&L

-$27

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

123

lifetime

Volume

$7.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$720

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-01

last 06-11 09:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

74% 100% +$49

Crypto

15% — —

Other

11% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	+419	$400	96¢	$400	+$0	06-11 08:55
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	-227	$-192	97¢	$-219	$-27	05-28 18:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	+123	$100	82¢	$101	+$1	06-11 09:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	6	$1.2K	366	922	-556	open	—	06-11 08:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$947	532	532	+0	open	—	05-31 22:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$880	451	451	+0	open	—	05-26 22:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$771	761	761	+0	open	—	05-14 09:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$741	372	372	+0	open	—	05-15 15:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	2	$400	419	0	+419	open	—	06-11 08:55
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$368	482	0	+482	open	—	05-15 15:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$329	378	0	+378	No	+$49	05-03 14:06
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	4	$207	210	0	+210	open	—	05-01 19:24
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$203	210	0	+210	open	—	06-11 09:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$200	209	0	+209	open	—	06-11 08:54
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$192	0	227	-227	open	—	05-28 18:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$100	123	0	+123	open	—	06-11 09:59
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	1	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	06-01 00:53
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	4	$70	76	0	+76	open	—	05-01 21:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	7	$59	66	0	+66	open	—	05-01 10:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	3	$51	58	0	+58	open	—	05-01 13:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$51	54	0	+54	open	—	05-02 09:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	3	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	05-01 13:53
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	05-01 13:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	3	$50	58	0	+58	open	—	05-01 15:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	6	$50	57	0	+57	open	—	05-01 12:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$45	47	0	+47	open	—	05-01 21:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$42	29	19	+11	open	—	05-25 18:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$42	26	26	+0	open	—	05-24 06:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	1	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	05-01 21:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$40	47	0	+47	open	—	05-01 14:18
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$40	44	0	+44	open	—	05-01 12:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$40	42	0	+42	open	—	05-01 13:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$40	42	0	+42	open	—	05-01 15:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 09:59:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x7a115c…
06-11 09:00:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	183	97¢	$177	0x2eb3e3…
06-11 08:59:25	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x55fb82…
06-11 08:55:10	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	312	96¢	$300	0x0d5af7…
06-11 08:54:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0xd06a43…
06-11 08:37:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	914	99¢	$904	0x0cf48e…
06-10 15:19:48	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xe192ab…
06-10 13:26:39	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xa592e5…
06-08 16:46:46	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x09296f…
06-08 10:45:01	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xaefb3c…
06-07 21:52:12	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x3e9c78…
06-03 21:11:21	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	Spurs	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x57fd3e…
06-01 15:30:41	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xdfaac7…
06-01 15:30:40	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xc21086…
06-01 00:53:16	Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xf6729c…
05-31 22:40:06	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x3cccc5…
05-31 22:30:23	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0xcb86b3…
05-31 22:25:48	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x19b747…
05-31 22:21:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	532	99¢	$529	0x752ca7…
05-29 23:05:45	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x91148f…
05-28 18:39:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	87¢	$191	0xebd786…
05-28 18:34:33	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	221	85¢	$187	0x905a9f…
05-28 18:22:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x1ffad1…
05-28 14:17:00	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x45374a…
05-28 14:16:31	LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	T1	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcf5833…
05-28 12:03:50	LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	T1	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xb79847…
05-26 22:26:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	451	99¢	$447	0x77e9d1…
05-26 14:29:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	251	96¢	$241	0x467d5f…
05-26 14:29:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0xd80ea2…
05-26 14:24:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0xf4d64c…
05-25 18:40:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	65¢	$27	0x1c756c…
05-25 18:29:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	19	94¢	$18	0xe99539…
05-24 06:05:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	29	82¢	$24	0x7c706a…
05-24 06:04:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	26	90¢	$24	0x0c3fe0…
05-23 11:09:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0x3afa3f…
05-15 15:53:42	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	482	76¢	$368	0x7a6e2d…
05-15 15:51:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	372	100¢	$371	0xac512e…
05-14 09:52:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	372	99¢	$370	0xa20e05…
05-14 09:41:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	381	99¢	$378	0xb85a6d…
05-09 23:24:34	Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x434266…
05-09 09:52:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	381	97¢	$370	0x7347b1…
05-09 09:51:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	380	3¢	$12	0x588242…
05-09 09:49:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	380	3¢	$12	0x6c90b5…
05-03 14:06:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	378	87¢	$329	0xa12a35…
05-02 09:34:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x61d533…
05-02 09:33:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xee273e…
05-01 21:39:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	43	94¢	$40	0x7342d1…
05-01 21:14:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa1be30…
05-01 21:14:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd34f65…
05-01 21:14:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xaef0d4…
05-01 21:13:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x784f0c…
05-01 21:09:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x002b74…
05-01 21:08:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x1ae7e3…
05-01 20:44:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb146ee…
05-01 19:24:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x014788…
05-01 19:23:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd86a35…
05-01 19:22:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x38523e…
05-01 19:21:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5abf37…
05-01 15:59:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x1c4f03…
05-01 15:49:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xdc3a15…
05-01 15:48:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x969349…
05-01 15:48:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd2b73e…
05-01 15:48:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x414112…
05-01 15:44:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x497077…
05-01 15:44:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x01e200…
05-01 15:43:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x6c86b9…
05-01 14:24:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x928fc7…
05-01 14:18:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x9acbaa…
05-01 14:18:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xd9ff0d…
05-01 13:59:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x46e9b2…
05-01 13:58:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xfc5894…
05-01 13:58:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	87¢	$31	0x9c7c60…
05-01 13:53:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x06a558…
05-01 13:53:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x1fcb92…
05-01 13:52:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x07cb43…
05-01 13:39:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x78b2b1…
05-01 13:32:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x2da2fa…
05-01 13:32:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd32314…
05-01 13:24:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	42	94¢	$40	0x87e11b…
05-01 13:09:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xa50a37…
05-01 13:08:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x66df39…
05-01 12:59:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x0ba06d…
05-01 12:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xa70058…
05-01 12:44:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xf2b400…
05-01 12:43:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	23	85¢	$20	0xb2aaef…
05-01 12:38:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x1ed937…
05-01 12:36:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xd2cb11…
05-01 12:33:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xf69db0…
05-01 12:33:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x452e2d…
05-01 12:29:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x513262…
05-01 12:29:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x9b45d2…
05-01 12:29:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd53d96…
05-01 12:28:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x812490…
05-01 12:28:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xa3d334…
05-01 12:27:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x34e346…
05-01 12:13:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x77d5dd…
05-01 12:11:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xa7d3ec…
05-01 12:06:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x167933…
05-01 12:03:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x8a96f7…
05-01 12:02:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x9d7d27…