Familiar-Desktop — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$44

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.8%

Resolved

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$1.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 07-22 19:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

61% — —

Crypto

28% 17% +$44

Other

11% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$200	180	180	+0	open	—	05-06 18:23
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$190	420	420	+0	open	—	03-06 19:28
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	2	$181	344	344	+0	open	—	07-22 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$136	107	107	+0	Down	+$76	05-06 18:30
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$123	89	89	+0	open	—	03-08 11:45
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner	2	$102	81	81	+0	Gentle Mates	$-0	05-09 17:50
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	3	$90	159	159	+0	open	—	03-08 11:47
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	1	$86	132	0	+132	open	—	03-08 11:47
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	3	$77	337	337	+0	open	—	03-06 19:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$38	454	454	+0	open	—	05-16 17:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	3	$37	43	43	+0	Up	+$2	05-09 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	4	$32	30	29	+1	open	—	04-25 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$25	22	21	+1	open	—	04-25 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	05-14 06:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	2	$20	16	16	+0	Down	+$10	05-09 17:14
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$20	18	18	+0	open	—	03-06 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$17	14	14	+1	open	—	04-25 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	3	$14	25	13	+12	open	—	04-25 15:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$13	19	19	+0	open	—	05-15 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	2	$11	10	9	+1	open	—	04-25 15:04
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$11	234	0	+234	open	—	05-11 18:57
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	1	$11	36	0	+36	open	—	05-15 13:49
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	2	$10	45	45	+0	open	—	05-12 05:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	04-25 15:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	04-25 14:31
btc updown 5m 1772955900	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	03-08 07:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$10	83	83	+0	open	—	05-14 06:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$8	44	0	+44	open	—	04-25 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	2	$7	13	12	+1	open	—	04-26 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	2	$7	31	0	+31	open	—	04-25 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 19:31:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	344	30¢	$103	0xeb401f…
07-22 10:39:13	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	344	23¢	$78	0x7d37dd…
05-24 08:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0a8509…
05-23 17:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x033934…
05-16 17:08:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	454	4¢	$18	0x27becf…
05-16 17:01:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	454	4¢	$20	0xc0c6c9…
05-15 13:49:50	Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs	T1	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0x415cab…
05-15 10:19:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	41¢	$8	0x053de8…
05-15 10:19:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	5¢	$2	0x92241d…
05-14 06:55:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x26c985…
05-14 06:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x4e060e…
05-14 06:51:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x4d3542…
05-12 05:28:54	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	12¢	$5	0xf04256…
05-11 19:32:39	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x13be82…
05-11 19:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x21867f…
05-11 19:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x60cd61…
05-11 18:57:32	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x7c9358…
05-11 18:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa8b7ba…
05-11 18:28:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x81f645…
05-11 18:28:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x025fc0…
05-11 04:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcceab2…
05-10 07:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x550fd0…
05-09 17:50:02	Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner	Team Liquid	SELL	81	63¢	$51	0x273021…
05-09 17:43:39	Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	81	63¢	$51	0x7acb16…
05-09 17:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x645ecb…
05-09 17:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x2005ee…
05-09 17:31:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0xba6d71…
05-09 17:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	16	98¢	$15	0x70f726…
05-09 17:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x36767c…
05-09 16:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	43	45¢	$20	0xea4166…
05-09 16:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	28	27¢	$7	0x8741f7…
05-09 16:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x9f0d7f…
05-09 11:21:41	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x9eb3be…
05-09 11:21:39	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xa05d1c…
05-09 10:00:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xdc6dde…
05-09 10:00:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xb965a0…
05-09 09:56:27	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xd69209…
05-09 06:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa1f4ff…
05-09 06:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xebd424…
05-09 06:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xaa7dbc…
05-09 06:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x69fb8f…
05-09 06:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xdc599d…
05-09 06:17:09	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x8218d6…
05-07 04:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0xdf8c0d…
05-06 19:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xfd0bc5…
05-06 19:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x79388d…
05-06 19:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x5b3c1d…
05-06 18:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd86549…
05-06 18:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xa2c0eb…
05-06 18:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x725325…
05-06 18:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x63ae87…
05-06 18:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x13023e…
05-06 18:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	107	99¢	$106	0x986090…
05-06 18:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0xdab385…
05-06 18:23:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	178	47¢	$84	0xa45fbd…
04-26 14:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x1e8003…
04-26 14:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x131423…
04-26 14:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x7a30ac…
04-26 14:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xac14b7…
04-26 14:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xf2b5aa…
04-26 14:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0xfec5a0…
04-26 14:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3620ba…
04-26 14:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	12	33¢	$4	0x0ca6f4…
04-26 14:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x6bb74c…
04-26 14:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x8c2620…
04-26 14:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x261790…
04-26 14:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x652526…
04-26 14:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x3400fb…
04-26 14:22:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x4d1d43…
04-25 15:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xa4d8c3…
04-25 15:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x22d5b0…
04-25 15:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x871f11…
04-25 15:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x102a56…
04-25 15:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb5de39…
04-25 15:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x79b379…
04-25 15:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xff1d8d…
04-25 15:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	20	33¢	$6	0xfec8c3…
04-25 15:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xdefdfc…
04-25 15:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x0144e3…
04-25 15:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x155e04…
04-25 15:17:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xc539fe…
04-25 15:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x4e203a…
04-25 15:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x70d599…
04-25 15:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0x18cd61…
04-25 15:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xc530f6…
04-25 15:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x9f74c0…
04-25 15:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xb9f04c…
04-25 14:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x408f4a…
04-25 14:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xade12e…
04-25 14:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xbf7f8d…
04-25 14:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	21	82¢	$17	0x0549c7…
04-25 14:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x3fd342…
04-25 14:46:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	64¢	$115	0x6fea18…
04-25 14:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x434e87…
04-25 14:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xc19fa2…
04-25 14:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	14	91¢	$12	0xc0cd86…
04-25 14:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd973bb…
04-25 14:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x53c642…
03-08 11:47:35	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	Yes	BUY	132	65¢	$86	0xc667e9…
03-08 11:47:17	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	Yes	SELL	149	25¢	$37	0x231054…