Distinct-Winner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$104

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

110

lifetime

Volume

$6.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 05-20 11:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

59% 75% $-115

Other

36% 100% +$11

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$1.0K	1,050	0	+1,050	open	—	04-07 15:37
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	5	$493	438	194	+244	open	—	03-30 14:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	3	$462	300	300	+0	open	—	04-06 07:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	14	$419	308	304	+4	open	—	04-06 07:15
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	4	$412	372	372	+0	open	—	04-07 23:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$367	202	202	+0	open	—	04-27 21:52
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	9	$328	337	337	+0	open	—	04-08 10:41
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	5	$325	201	201	+0	open	—	04-17 17:46
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	7	$259	194	194	+0	open	—	04-08 18:26
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	2	$227	239	0	+239	Yes	+$13	05-02 16:27
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$211	136	136	+0	open	—	04-20 01:19
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	5	$206	224	0	+224	Yes	+$18	04-05 06:15
will the us tariff rate on china be between 5 and 15 on march 31	2	$191	205	0	+205	open	—	03-25 14:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$190	114	113	+1	open	—	04-29 15:49
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	3	$172	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 14:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$164	100	100	+0	open	—	04-02 14:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$150	156	0	+156	Yes	$-150	05-08 16:30
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	2	$142	146	0	+146	Yes	+$4	05-08 16:31
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	1	$138	150	0	+150	open	—	03-27 11:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	2	$114	182	179	+3	open	—	04-15 02:23
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	6	$109	90	90	+0	open	—	05-20 11:53
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$93	100	0	+100	open	—	05-02 08:28
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	3	$92	200	200	+0	open	—	03-27 14:37
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$74	100	0	+100	open	—	04-25 05:56
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	1	$70	81	0	+81	Yes	+$11	04-19 08:57
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	3	$47	56	0	+56	open	—	04-25 16:02
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	4	$46	49	49	+0	open	—	04-30 16:57
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?	1	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	04-26 06:39
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	6	$16	133	129	+5	open	—	04-26 23:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	1	$12	140	0	+140	open	—	04-15 13:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 11:53:50	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	SELL	34	90¢	$31	0x2cd858…
05-12 00:36:44	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x2e8227…
05-09 02:30:31	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	SELL	45	43¢	$19	0x5bbfae…
05-08 16:31:19	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	135	97¢	$131	0x7b9c9f…
05-08 16:30:53	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xd679b5…
05-08 16:30:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$150	0xd7c07b…
05-07 14:22:22	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x6fcd5a…
05-07 14:22:12	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	BUY	28	61¢	$17	0x4d3991…
05-07 14:22:00	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	No	BUY	52	61¢	$32	0x3375e4…
05-02 16:27:48	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	95¢	$106	0xbf9769…
05-02 16:27:38	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	95¢	$121	0xa4aa65…
05-02 08:28:30	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xa0ba91…
04-30 16:57:50	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	No	SELL	40	19¢	$8	0xf683d2…
04-30 16:56:02	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	No	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0x0c009f…
04-29 15:49:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	SELL	113	80¢	$90	0x2d4693…
04-27 21:52:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	202	99¢	$200	0xa18b61…
04-27 10:35:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x5670e9…
04-26 23:37:20	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	SELL	129	2¢	$3	0x5bacc8…
04-26 06:39:22	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$5	0xa93b82…
04-26 06:39:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x6107aa…
04-26 06:39:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x5927e6…
04-26 06:33:54	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xf94cdb…
04-26 06:33:24	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0xa9aca4…
04-26 06:33:02	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0xafbc8f…
04-25 16:02:38	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xd187d7…
04-25 05:56:20	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x455cb5…
04-23 10:14:50	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x3bbe4c…
04-23 03:54:50	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	No	BUY	38	75¢	$29	0x62247f…
04-21 15:40:18	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xef24d7…
04-21 14:30:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x0f8df9…
04-21 14:30:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	83¢	$70	0xc53adc…
04-21 14:30:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	82¢	$48	0xc37053…
04-21 13:46:34	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$12	0xcf9c41…
04-20 01:19:44	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	136	77¢	$105	0x41d3bf…
04-19 10:32:28	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xbc2efe…
04-19 10:32:12	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	86	77¢	$67	0x8cf28a…
04-19 08:57:50	Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	81	86¢	$70	0x250975…
04-17 17:46:50	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	201	92¢	$185	0x0c561e…
04-15 13:33:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	8¢	$12	0x499134…
04-15 02:23:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	SELL	179	7¢	$13	0x68182d…
04-10 11:21:15	highest temperature in singapore on april 11 2026 31c	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xc10d1f…
04-10 08:50:41	highest temperature in singapore on april 11 2026 31c	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x593731…
04-08 18:26:17	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	73	69¢	$50	0x2370b2…
04-08 18:26:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	71	69¢	$49	0xc133b2…
04-08 18:26:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x071f05…
04-08 15:43:29	highest temperature in london on april 9 2026 18c	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x6ac7df…
04-08 13:29:51	highest temperature in london on april 9 2026 18c	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x87b08f…
04-08 13:29:43	highest temperature in london on april 9 2026 18c	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa7df2a…
04-08 13:22:23	highest temperature in seoul on april 9 2026 15corhigher	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x5aabe2…
04-08 10:44:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x43374b…
04-08 10:44:03	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	34	65¢	$22	0xb1c89d…
04-08 10:43:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xd94ab1…
04-08 10:41:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x85e477…
04-08 10:41:19	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6c92d6…
04-07 23:19:53	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	6¢	$4	0xdcca20…
04-07 23:19:53	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	6¢	$1	0x661799…
04-07 23:17:57	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0x00543b…
04-07 23:17:37	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	8¢	$1	0x232bc7…
04-07 23:16:15	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	SELL	372	15¢	$56	0x6e6611…
04-07 15:37:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,050	97¢	$1,015	0x38d40d…
04-07 15:22:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	182	56¢	$102	0xc9008b…
04-06 07:45:51	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	72¢	$38	0x2a0b90…
04-06 07:39:15	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	72¢	$43	0xfd649c…
04-06 07:31:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	150	72¢	$108	0x7dbea5…
04-06 07:21:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	150	72¢	$108	0x7015ae…
04-06 07:15:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0xbbd77a…
04-06 06:52:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x6f3bb4…
04-06 06:51:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	12	70¢	$9	0xe014dd…
04-06 06:45:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x52c20a…
04-06 06:40:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	29	70¢	$20	0xc46a1b…
04-06 06:38:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xd174a5…
04-06 06:37:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x0ce743…
04-06 06:30:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	9	70¢	$7	0x5fd56c…
04-06 06:26:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x13c4ae…
04-06 06:07:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0xe67555…
04-06 06:07:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	23	70¢	$16	0x258062…
04-05 06:15:35	Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x719a94…
04-05 06:15:33	Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	93¢	$34	0x85c0d4…
04-05 06:14:55	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	77¢	$139	0x8fe99e…
04-04 05:14:35	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x559f72…
04-03 18:02:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	140	75¢	$105	0x625289…
04-02 17:30:17	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x5d4d30…
04-02 14:45:11	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x55fb44…
04-02 14:43:29	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0xc55bf7…
04-02 14:43:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0x49413f…
04-02 14:38:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	166	64¢	$106	0x049fe1…
04-02 14:09:19	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0xd70283…
04-02 14:03:33	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xdfc7a7…
04-02 12:48:07	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	113	74¢	$84	0x6ea67c…
04-02 12:47:55	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x2a588d…
04-02 12:44:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	168	66¢	$111	0xf48183…
04-02 09:16:47	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x593860…
04-02 09:10:53	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x30ff0a…
04-02 09:08:17	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	60¢	$17	0x49ec06…
04-02 08:49:33	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	59¢	$92	0x4bf25b…
04-01 13:21:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x4c1277…
03-30 14:12:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x1cf1a2…
03-28 16:43:45	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	194	76¢	$149	0x567ce6…
03-28 15:51:17	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	90	77¢	$69	0x20a9f9…
03-28 15:50:15	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xf53f3a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	31	$342.5K	21,858	05-23 18:53
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	30	$7.19M	11,078	06-01 04:28
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	30	$208.7K	14,888	05-04 11:13
(anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d	29	$117.2K	8,476	04-28 02:28
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	28	$440.6K	7,655	05-29 14:53
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	27	$23.8K	5,467	05-07 15:12
Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936	27	$554	346	05-16 13:46
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	26	$17.1K	1,952	06-01 13:13