Misguided-Standoff — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

80.2%

Resolved

Trades

267

lifetime

Volume

$4.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$48

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 06-21 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 84% +$10

Politics

3% — —

Other

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes		-88	$-45	55¢	$-48	$-3	06-21 16:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1770822900	5	$247	265	20	+246	open	—	02-11 15:29
btc updown 15m 1770810300	2	$160	166	0	+166	open	—	02-11 11:58
btc updown 5m 1771008300	2	$140	143	0	+143	open	—	02-13 18:49
btc updown 5m 1770964800	2	$130	135	0	+135	open	—	02-13 06:44
btc updown 5m 1771010700	2	$119	126	0	+126	open	—	02-13 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	5	$112	68	68	+0	open	—	05-14 15:39
btc updown 15m 1770809400	1	$100	105	0	+105	open	—	02-11 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	6	$82	71	21	+50	Up	+$2	05-13 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	5	$77	62	51	+11	Up	$-23	05-13 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$75	5,025	0	+5,025	open	—	05-14 21:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	5	$68	70	19	+51	Down	$-11	05-13 23:04
btc updown 5m 1770969300	1	$63	64	0	+64	open	—	02-13 07:58
btc updown 5m 1770980400	2	$62	66	0	+66	open	—	02-13 11:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	3	$60	67	0	+67	open	—	05-14 15:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$58	33	33	+0	Down	+$8	05-12 21:51
highest temperature in london on january 18 11corhigher	2	$54	34	34	+0	open	—	01-18 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$54	29	29	+0	open	—	05-14 14:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$53	29	29	+0	Down	+$3	05-13 21:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$52	27	27	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$51	26	26	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$50	60	0	+60	open	—	05-14 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	2	$50	64	0	+64	Down	+$14	05-13 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	2	$50	58	0	+58	Up	+$8	05-12 22:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	05-14 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	2	$50	52	0	+52	Up	+$2	05-12 21:54
btc updown 15m 1768738500	2	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	01-18 12:30
btc updown 15m 1768345200	3	$48	63	14	+49	open	—	01-13 23:14
btc updown 5m 1771009500	5	$46	50	0	+50	open	—	02-13 19:09
btc updown 15m 1768493700	2	$46	25	25	+0	open	—	01-15 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	3	$46	38	11	+27	Up	+$2	05-13 21:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 16:32:37	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	88	51¢	$45	0xd256f4…
06-21 16:31:28	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x167bd2…
05-14 21:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xd96568…
05-14 21:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xca9575…
05-14 21:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x3c2038…
05-14 21:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x5d268d…
05-14 21:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x86fe60…
05-14 21:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xf36b8b…
05-14 20:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x955e26…
05-14 20:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x6ee0c4…
05-14 20:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	13	42¢	$5	0xcfe93a…
05-14 20:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x3780c9…
05-14 20:06:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x18a1ca…
05-14 20:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb7b304…
05-14 19:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x023142…
05-14 16:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x900c07…
05-14 16:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x851a4e…
05-14 16:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x457acb…
05-14 16:13:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x702017…
05-14 16:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x8e6ec2…
05-14 16:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xef128d…
05-14 16:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xced5ab…
05-14 15:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xb5b75f…
05-14 15:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x24f9e1…
05-14 15:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xb41011…
05-14 15:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	SELL	58	97¢	$57	0xfcd6ef…
05-14 15:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x3a8666…
05-14 15:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x1fceb1…
05-14 15:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0d3fcc…
05-14 15:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x893772…
05-14 15:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x788092…
05-14 15:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1466e0…
05-14 15:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x915744…
05-14 15:10:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x3a6acd…
05-14 15:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xd4fe37…
05-14 15:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x33bf33…
05-14 15:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x34f2a1…
05-14 14:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xceaefe…
05-14 14:57:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x8ef85e…
05-14 14:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0xe64dfc…
05-14 14:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xc20bab…
05-14 14:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x647e3b…
05-14 14:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x6ebba0…
05-14 14:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x6b5ca9…
05-13 23:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x81158a…
05-13 23:19:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xad3e24…
05-13 23:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe84fb3…
05-13 23:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x136f53…
05-13 23:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x009214…
05-13 23:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x960c05…
05-13 23:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xd34f8c…
05-13 23:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9a1b12…
05-13 23:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xc4009f…
05-13 23:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xfbe633…
05-13 23:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x01ee8e…
05-13 23:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0xad1148…
05-13 23:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x348455…
05-13 23:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x28ed0a…
05-13 22:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x6dc226…
05-13 22:53:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xaf8344…
05-13 22:52:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xa7bbd9…
05-13 22:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x7e1a05…
05-13 22:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xa3a029…
05-13 22:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xf22762…
05-13 22:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	21	79¢	$17	0x5a621a…
05-13 22:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x14ee80…
05-13 22:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x8703ec…
05-13 22:39:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x0b2852…
05-13 22:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x5f8428…
05-13 22:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xb97e4a…
05-13 22:29:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x2c4452…
05-13 22:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x058948…
05-13 22:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	58	1¢	$1	0xad3d82…
05-13 22:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x4c008a…
05-13 22:23:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x2ce8b9…
05-13 22:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xd50254…
05-13 21:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x0199c1…
05-13 21:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x9fc241…
05-13 21:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x8ba508…
05-13 21:49:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xa90c2e…
05-13 21:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa4f53b…
05-13 21:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x3ee849…
05-13 21:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xef4b8a…
05-13 21:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x94b468…
05-13 21:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	11	93¢	$11	0x131eb4…
05-13 21:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xfb50f7…
05-13 21:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x6fac7a…
05-13 21:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	51	53¢	$27	0x82463a…
05-13 21:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x37f308…
05-13 21:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x6b4fac…
05-13 21:31:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x17270a…
05-13 21:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x022af2…
05-13 21:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xe1cfc4…
05-13 21:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x932cc9…
05-13 21:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x9e2ff2…
05-13 21:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x44effe…
05-13 21:16:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x6fde52…
05-13 21:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x1cde81…
05-13 21:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x834840…
05-13 21:09:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xdb639c…