Frayed-Interferometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

Trades

176

lifetime

Volume

$5.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-30 08:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

43% 0% $-3

Politics

35% 50% $-0

Tech

16% — —

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-9

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$744	380	380	+0	open	—	04-14 08:55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$378	190	190	+0	open	—	04-23 06:51
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$366	190	190	+0	open	—	04-23 07:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	6	$356	200	200	+0	open	—	04-14 07:21
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$311	170	170	+0	open	—	04-08 07:38
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	8	$252	300	300	+0	open	—	03-19 21:59
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	4	$244	200	200	+0	open	—	04-27 07:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	7	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 14:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:36
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$191	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 19:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	6	$179	93	93	+0	open	—	05-23 11:58
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	2	$166	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 12:30
will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	1	$164	0	200	-200	open	—	04-27 04:46
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$158	200	200	+0	open	—	05-05 04:58
Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	6	$122	85	85	+0	Yes	$-3	05-05 06:50
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$116	58	58	+0	open	—	04-03 23:51
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	2	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	06-27 09:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$76	526	526	+0	open	—	05-13 05:20
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	2	$71	50	50	+0	open	—	05-29 03:09
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	5	$66	33	33	+0	open	—	05-13 06:18
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	2	$50	73	73	+0	open	—	03-24 11:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$45	23	23	+0	open	—	05-13 06:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-22 17:03
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	2	$32	16	16	+0	open	—	05-22 13:44
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	5	$31	64	64	+0	open	—	04-28 04:23
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$31	36	36	+0	open	—	04-28 02:12
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	2	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	03-25 09:43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$29	15	15	+0	open	—	05-22 13:46
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 120 139	2	$28	95	95	+0	open	—	03-20 20:32
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	4	$28	97	97	+0	open	—	05-29 03:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 08:39:32	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xbb4123…
06-30 08:39:22	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x93e840…
06-30 08:38:43	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x34432c…
06-30 08:37:47	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526264	No	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xab04a8…
06-30 08:37:13	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526264	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x5718ca…
06-30 08:33:08	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x58bb95…
06-30 07:53:35	will the announcers say messi during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526267	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x7a8cf5…
06-30 07:53:25	will the announcers say attacking presence during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343711	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x48b6b0…
06-30 07:53:22	will the announcers say messi during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526267	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x54132b…
06-30 07:51:07	will the announcers say attacking presence during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343711	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x66666f…
06-30 07:46:50	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x78d743…
06-30 07:46:31	will the announcers say brilliant 15 times during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343701	Yes	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0xb7322b…
06-30 07:46:14	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x651819…
06-30 07:45:47	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x6a3fb4…
06-30 07:45:41	will the announcers say brilliant 15 times during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343701	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xc7aff7…
06-30 07:45:31	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xdfa5af…
06-27 10:45:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x374063…
06-27 10:45:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x3565a7…
06-27 10:27:13	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x9b0f57…
06-27 10:17:58	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xda5bd7…
06-27 09:55:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x254b35…
06-27 09:55:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xf68b27…
06-27 09:54:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xa79b3e…
06-27 09:52:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x416152…
06-22 08:31:14	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x18d3e2…
06-22 08:30:26	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xb972a4…
06-22 08:25:58	will mu dip to 1080 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x2c784e…
06-22 08:24:53	will mu dip to 1080 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x5ebc48…
06-06 12:26:31	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x60be27…
06-06 12:19:31	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x66c0bb…
06-06 12:15:22	lzb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 16 2026 0pt82	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4c498c…
06-06 11:59:18	kr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 18 2026 1pt58	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xc37d25…
06-06 11:57:58	kr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 18 2026 1pt58	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x624691…
06-03 15:14:24	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0x50e231…
06-03 14:38:37	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$4	0x2cd544…
06-03 14:36:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x937aca…
05-29 04:12:57	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	34	29¢	$10	0x7cc414…
05-29 04:12:22	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x37b8dd…
05-29 04:11:51	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x5dc66e…
05-29 04:07:07	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0x8a0f92…
05-29 03:46:58	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	No	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0xa6cf9e…
05-29 03:43:40	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	No	BUY	47	13¢	$6	0x4815a9…
05-29 03:36:10	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xa41b55…
05-29 03:34:08	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x331003…
05-29 03:21:06	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x61efd2…
05-29 03:19:54	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	No	BUY	50	17¢	$9	0x8654d8…
05-29 03:13:46	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$3	0xbe53be…
05-29 03:13:15	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	3	81¢	$3	0xe894a9…
05-29 03:09:52	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	No	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0x82a4b3…
05-29 03:09:19	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x1ffff5…
05-27 19:53:29	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x910971…
05-23 14:38:35	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	1	66¢	$0	0xab45d3…
05-23 13:55:53	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	1	66¢	$0	0xe16e92…
05-23 11:58:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x4ffb38…
05-22 17:03:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7f95e1…
05-22 13:46:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x306286…
05-22 13:44:28	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xe3082c…
05-20 13:05:40	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	433	1¢	$3	0x36b377…
05-17 17:25:17	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x780b92…
05-17 15:20:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x033564…
05-16 21:39:40	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x47a39f…
05-16 17:59:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x39228c…
05-16 14:32:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x4df283…
05-16 14:32:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	81	98¢	$80	0x2831f0…
05-16 13:36:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	29	98¢	$29	0xe66692…
05-16 13:36:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xd98d8f…
05-16 13:36:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xb280ca…
05-16 13:36:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x6be8e1…
05-16 13:36:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x168e4a…
05-16 12:30:25	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0xc3cbb3…
05-16 12:29:19	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xc09ae5…
05-15 19:15:46	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x980242…
05-15 13:26:51	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x21e01e…
05-15 12:46:15	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x39b3e6…
05-15 12:30:21	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x91e1b9…
05-13 07:53:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x252bc3…
05-13 07:08:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x76e464…
05-13 06:37:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0x021f6a…
05-13 06:18:33	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xfce4bd…
05-13 06:01:45	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa1dcd5…
05-13 05:58:21	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8e49ae…
05-13 05:51:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xcf1acd…
05-13 05:20:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xc71023…
05-13 05:08:21	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf947c1…
05-13 05:08:21	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x46ffc5…
05-13 04:51:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x5b0f58…
05-06 19:12:44	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x16c758…
05-06 12:38:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$12	0x6ccfd7…
05-06 10:30:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	356	2¢	$9	0x8d6d40…
05-06 10:21:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	144	2¢	$3	0xa46575…
05-06 07:36:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x3291c0…
05-06 07:32:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x92cc43…
05-06 07:09:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	76	97¢	$74	0xdffa5b…
05-06 05:52:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0xf97375…
05-06 05:28:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x605382…
05-05 13:38:52	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x1a0e25…
05-05 13:23:46	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x1d9a85…
05-05 11:21:06	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	8¢	$7	0xb0499d…
05-05 07:05:54	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	Yes	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x83a288…
05-05 06:50:44	Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	Yes	SELL	25	72¢	$18	0x423260…