Frayed-Interferometer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

Trades

237

lifetime

Volume

$5.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 07-19 04:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

41% 0% $-3

Politics

39% 50% $-0

Tech

14% — —

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-9

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$744	380	380	+0	open	—	04-14 08:55
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$378	190	190	+0	open	—	04-23 06:51
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$366	190	190	+0	open	—	04-23 07:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	6	$356	200	200	+0	open	—	04-14 07:21
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$311	170	170	+0	open	—	04-08 07:38
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	8	$252	300	300	+0	open	—	03-19 21:59
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	4	$244	200	200	+0	open	—	04-27 07:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	7	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 14:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:36
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$191	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 19:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	6	$179	93	93	+0	open	—	05-23 11:58
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	2	$166	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 12:30
will the all india anna dravida munnetra kazhagam admk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	1	$164	0	200	-200	open	—	04-27 04:46
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$158	200	200	+0	open	—	05-05 04:58
Romania No-Confidence vote passes?	6	$122	85	85	+0	Yes	$-3	05-05 06:50
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$116	58	58	+0	open	—	04-03 23:51
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	2	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	07-09 10:50
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	10	$92	87	87	+0	open	—	07-15 14:02
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	2	$86	50	50	+0	open	—	06-27 09:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$76	526	526	+0	open	—	05-13 05:20
will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	6	$74	60	60	+0	open	—	07-13 09:40
iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	6	$72	60	60	+0	open	—	07-09 11:27
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	2	$71	50	50	+0	open	—	05-29 03:09
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	5	$66	33	33	+0	open	—	05-13 06:18
will mu dip to 810 by july 13 2026	4	$58	40	40	+0	open	—	07-13 09:56
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	2	$50	73	73	+0	open	—	03-24 11:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$45	23	23	+0	open	—	05-13 06:37
iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	6	$42	60	60	+0	open	—	07-15 14:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-22 17:03
israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	07-09 11:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 04:13:18	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	Yes	SELL	19	18¢	$3	0xb7abc7…
07-17 10:17:04	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x6b176d…
07-15 14:17:55	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xb8b04d…
07-15 14:15:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x1b078e…
07-15 14:11:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x7ed56a…
07-15 14:04:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x6d393c…
07-15 14:02:58	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x7f9e3c…
07-15 14:01:58	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x650eaa…
07-15 13:41:23	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x9713f9…
07-15 13:41:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x16ff98…
07-15 13:38:31	will chris hemsworth appear on hall h stage at sdcc 2026 20260714142553821	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x798620…
07-15 13:36:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xefcff6…
07-15 13:35:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xb252c7…
07-15 13:27:20	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x99fdc0…
07-15 13:24:53	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 19 2026 20260714195149521	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x094ec8…
07-15 13:19:37	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x825e2d…
07-13 10:12:40	will rklb reach 88 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x6cce4b…
07-13 10:10:13	will rklb reach 88 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x8f3d2e…
07-13 10:06:08	will meta dip to 660 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xffcc65…
07-13 10:00:38	will meta dip to 660 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x5f6040…
07-13 09:56:02	will mu dip to 810 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xc8328a…
07-13 09:55:53	will hood dip to 107 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x1aba3e…
07-13 09:55:28	will hood dip to 107 50 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xde6816…
07-13 09:55:28	will mu dip to 810 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x47a785…
07-13 09:41:46	will mu reach 1080 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x43d7ad…
07-13 09:41:32	will mu dip to 810 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x96b0de…
07-13 09:41:13	will mu reach 1080 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xb4fa76…
07-13 09:41:08	will mu dip to 810 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x83702b…
07-13 09:40:20	will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xb4acb5…
07-13 09:39:35	will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x4335d7…
07-13 09:37:26	will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x113f7a…
07-13 09:37:05	will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x2930f9…
07-13 09:37:02	will mu reach 1080 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xf3e636…
07-13 09:35:46	will mu reach 1080 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x989cc2…
07-13 09:33:10	will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x60eb47…
07-13 09:32:31	will nvda dip to 208 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x78b7a7…
07-09 11:27:29	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xace1c7…
07-09 11:27:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x69037b…
07-09 11:27:07	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xe4933d…
07-09 11:25:20	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xd8dfc3…
07-09 11:16:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x05ad44…
07-09 11:15:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x53ea28…
07-09 11:00:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x6b0826…
07-09 10:59:47	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x89bec2…
07-09 10:59:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xfdf7f5…
07-09 10:58:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xe14ae2…
07-09 10:56:02	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x10b036…
07-09 10:55:46	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0xf86824…
07-09 10:55:14	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x743bf3…
07-09 10:54:53	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x1a3541…
07-09 10:54:20	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x9c05f6…
07-09 10:53:50	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x59b594…
07-09 10:50:17	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0xc6321c…
07-09 10:50:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xdcb7c3…
07-09 10:48:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xd84094…
07-09 10:47:53	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x9b04e6…
07-09 07:27:59	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x9fd519…
07-09 07:26:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 10	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x1079aa…
07-09 07:21:08	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x00e2f5…
07-09 07:20:47	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x8b501b…
07-09 07:20:22	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe740bc…
06-30 08:39:32	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xbb4123…
06-30 08:39:22	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x93e840…
06-30 08:38:43	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	Yes	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x34432c…
06-30 08:37:47	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526264	No	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xab04a8…
06-30 08:37:13	will the announcers say hattrick or hat trick during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526264	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x5718ca…
06-30 08:33:08	will the announcers say world cup finals during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343704	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x58bb95…
06-30 07:53:35	will the announcers say messi during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526267	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x7a8cf5…
06-30 07:53:25	will the announcers say attacking presence during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343711	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x48b6b0…
06-30 07:53:22	will the announcers say messi during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526267	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x54132b…
06-30 07:51:07	will the announcers say attacking presence during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343711	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x66666f…
06-30 07:46:50	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x78d743…
06-30 07:46:31	will the announcers say brilliant 15 times during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343701	Yes	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0xb7322b…
06-30 07:46:14	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x651819…
06-30 07:45:47	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x6a3fb4…
06-30 07:45:41	will the announcers say brilliant 15 times during the france vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260629195343701	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xc7aff7…
06-30 07:45:31	will the announcers say goal 50 times during the mexico vs ecuador fifa world cup match 20260629195526246	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xdfa5af…
06-27 10:45:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x374063…
06-27 10:45:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x3565a7…
06-27 10:27:13	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x9b0f57…
06-27 10:17:58	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xda5bd7…
06-27 09:55:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x254b35…
06-27 09:55:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xf68b27…
06-27 09:54:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0xa79b3e…
06-27 09:52:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x416152…
06-22 08:31:14	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x18d3e2…
06-22 08:30:26	will mu dip to 1110 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xb972a4…
06-22 08:25:58	will mu dip to 1080 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x2c784e…
06-22 08:24:53	will mu dip to 1080 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x5ebc48…
06-06 12:26:31	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x60be27…
06-06 12:19:31	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x66c0bb…
06-06 12:15:22	lzb quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 16 2026 0pt82	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4c498c…
06-06 11:59:18	kr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 18 2026 1pt58	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xc37d25…
06-06 11:57:58	kr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 18 2026 1pt58	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x624691…
06-03 15:14:24	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0x50e231…
06-03 14:38:37	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$4	0x2cd544…
06-03 14:36:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x937aca…
05-29 04:12:57	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	34	29¢	$10	0x7cc414…
05-29 04:12:22	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x37b8dd…
05-29 04:11:51	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x5dc66e…