Exhausted-Ceremony — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$2.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-08

last 06-07 18:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

76% — —

Crypto

24% 42% $-19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up		+0	$2	4¢	$0	$-2	04-09 20:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$650	455	455	+0	open	—	05-23 15:46
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	10	$585	552	552	+0	open	—	05-18 20:56
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	16	$325	2,550	2,550	+0	open	—	05-14 12:58
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$146	96	96	+0	open	—	05-30 19:26
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score	2	$84	206	206	+0	open	—	05-23 19:52
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$77	47	47	+0	open	—	05-16 13:52
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	3	$46	52	52	+0	open	—	05-15 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	4	$37	26	26	+0	Down	+$13	05-11 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	6	$35	23	23	+0	Up	+$9	05-11 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	2	$32	40	40	+0	open	—	04-29 02:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	4	$21	14	14	+0	open	—	04-29 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	8	$21	114	14	+100	Up	+$1	05-11 01:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	3	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	04-29 00:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$16	23	0	+23	open	—	04-29 02:44
GTA VI released before June 2026?	4	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	04-13 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$14	19	19	+0	open	—	04-29 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-29 00:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	2	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	04-28 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	3	$12	21	9	+13	Up	+$0	05-12 02:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$12	20	20	+0	open	—	04-28 23:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	8	$12	43	0	+43	Down	$-12	05-11 01:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$11	7	7	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$11	28	25	+3	open	—	04-28 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	2	$11	18	0	+18	open	—	04-29 01:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	04-29 00:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 02:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-13 12:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	1	$10	19	0	+19	Up	+$9	05-11 23:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	04-29 02:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 18:03:12	sol updown 5m 1780855200	Down	BUY	29	12¢	$4	0x4683cf…
06-07 18:00:06	sol updown 5m 1780854900	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xef6b6e…
05-30 19:26:12	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xfffcf4…
05-30 15:36:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x15b671…
05-30 15:29:49	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xd074db…
05-29 00:32:20	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x370182…
05-23 19:52:58	FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	206	2¢	$4	0x951627…
05-23 19:31:20	FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	206	39¢	$80	0xe4063e…
05-23 15:46:34	Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	455	99¢	$450	0x271a97…
05-23 14:03:42	Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	455	44¢	$200	0x2053bc…
05-18 20:56:56	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	217	56¢	$122	0xe529e3…
05-18 15:55:26	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	217	60¢	$130	0xd08be6…
05-18 15:27:30	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	SELL	276	42¢	$116	0xd59f12…
05-18 15:23:06	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	174	58¢	$100	0x8f1d4a…
05-18 13:21:28	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xfd4489…
05-18 12:23:50	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x7e06df…
05-18 11:51:17	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0x037a3e…
05-18 11:51:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	39	52¢	$20	0xa0d8b2…
05-18 11:51:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x1aa8df…
05-17 20:08:13	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x3860a8…
05-16 13:52:37	Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0xb4fb60…
05-16 11:20:36	Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x59c791…
05-16 01:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5bd544…
05-15 16:29:40	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Team Falcons	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x4bd84b…
05-15 16:26:46	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Team Falcons	SELL	51	30¢	$15	0xde0970…
05-15 16:14:30	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Team Falcons	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x7d8f38…
05-14 12:58:23	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	812	5¢	$42	0xfdba57…
05-14 12:01:47	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	6¢	$10	0xdb361f…
05-14 11:44:15	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	651	5¢	$32	0x9af675…
05-13 23:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x75409e…
05-13 23:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0140d0…
05-13 16:55:00	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x5ae76a…
05-13 15:49:31	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xc75264…
05-13 08:42:24	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,248	4¢	$50	0x83d9c0…
05-13 00:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0xb10755…
05-13 00:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x80685b…
05-12 18:09:51	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	183	7¢	$13	0x5d8c2e…
05-12 18:08:48	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	183	7¢	$13	0x4f14ab…
05-12 17:58:39	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	366	7¢	$26	0x31f81f…
05-12 17:36:52	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	366	8¢	$30	0xa97e0f…
05-12 17:36:52	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	366	8¢	$30	0x0de4ff…
05-12 16:05:07	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	326	10¢	$33	0x7df5f5…
05-12 11:37:41	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	326	9¢	$30	0xe27f18…
05-12 09:38:01	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	14¢	$4	0x329e91…
05-12 08:51:52	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x976b72…
05-12 08:43:39	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x697526…
05-12 02:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xca0749…
05-12 02:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0xfcccd9…
05-12 02:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x474c1e…
05-12 02:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xaa9290…
05-12 02:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x4d9acd…
05-12 02:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdc2afe…
05-12 02:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe2f845…
05-12 02:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	9	74¢	$6	0x76b605…
05-12 02:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xfdc2ad…
05-11 23:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x36b673…
05-11 23:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb9d9da…
05-11 23:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x3ee27b…
05-11 23:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd0cf84…
05-11 01:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9e7bce…
05-11 01:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xb233fb…
05-11 01:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x89b21a…
05-11 01:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x69bf97…
05-11 01:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x2400b2…
05-11 01:31:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x62dbf6…
05-11 01:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc1f11f…
05-11 01:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x2d8fe0…
05-11 01:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7c809b…
05-11 01:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x78ab55…
05-11 01:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x067b70…
05-11 01:20:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc3b3de…
05-11 01:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x77c5ce…
05-11 01:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x0ae0e5…
05-11 01:17:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe5bb66…
05-11 01:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x882527…
05-11 01:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xdb6b4c…
05-11 01:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x26a4f9…
05-11 01:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6a5a09…
05-11 01:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe97517…
05-11 01:11:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x937e06…
05-11 01:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xdb5c9f…
05-11 01:11:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5dd0ae…
05-11 01:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x1f46b8…
05-11 01:09:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x770ef2…
05-11 01:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xb64372…
05-11 01:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x5c576d…
05-11 01:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x47e5c3…
05-11 01:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9d83a2…
05-11 01:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x535b44…
05-11 01:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe513db…
05-11 01:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf424d8…
05-11 01:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4ddece…
05-11 01:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x188dbe…
05-11 00:59:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0x9a6277…
05-11 00:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb9deb5…
05-11 00:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd1aeab…
05-11 00:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xa309a5…
05-11 00:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1b2c96…
05-11 00:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x9312a4…
05-11 00:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0f5dc8…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	90	$71.0K	1,675	05-30 19:16
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	87	$52.1K	3,405	05-16 01:38
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	83	$14.0K	1,060	05-16 01:39
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	82	$25.5K	3,678	05-30 15:38
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	80	$29.3K	4,961	05-16 01:39
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	80	$27.9K	8,022	05-16 01:39
Tender-Idea 0xbb20…1f06	71	$8.38K	609	05-16 01:39
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	68	$22.3K	6,942	05-16 01:39