Probable-Trait — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$327

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$16.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$461

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 07-19 02:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

76% — —

Sports

21% 100% +$267

Other

1% 100% +$60

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	1	$4.0K	3,992	0	+3,992	open	—	04-04 16:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$3.9K	3,949	0	+3,949	open	—	04-04 15:55
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$3.9K	3,894	0	+3,894	open	—	03-27 15:48
ufc kam dri 2026 07 18	1	$1000	1,110	0	+1,110	open	—	07-19 02:53
ufc cor mar 2026 07 11	4	$743	883	231	+652	open	—	07-12 02:45
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	2	$474	274	274	+0	open	—	07-12 03:44
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	1	$200	252	0	+252	open	—	05-17 08:59
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)	1	$200	256	0	+256	King Green	+$56	05-09 11:01
ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	1	$200	247	0	+247	open	—	06-14 15:18
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	1	$200	351	0	+351	Alexander Volkov	+$151	05-09 11:00
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	1	$200	260	0	+260	Yes	+$60	05-04 08:53
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	2	$131	81	81	+0	Sean Brady	+$31	05-10 06:33
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	2	$120	223	0	+223	open	—	06-15 05:01
ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	1	$100	200	0	+200	open	—	06-14 15:18
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	01-24 15:14
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	01-24 15:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	02-16 10:15
ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	1	$100	127	0	+127	open	—	06-14 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	1	$100	130	0	+130	open	—	05-03 08:11
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	02-16 10:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	2	$58	109	109	+0	open	—	05-03 08:06
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	1	$50	79	0	+79	Yaroslav Amosov	+$29	05-09 11:01
ufc bra6 lon 2026 07 11	1	$50	161	0	+161	open	—	07-12 02:03
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	1	$43	63	0	+63	open	—	01-24 15:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$25	108	0	+108	open	—	05-03 08:01
will the us strike somalia next 656	1	$10	2,495	0	+2,495	open	—	01-24 15:16
israel strikes iran by january 25 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	01-24 15:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 02:53:37	ufc kam dri 2026 07 18	Dricus Du Plessis	BUY	1,110	90¢	$1,000	0x7f8d28…
07-12 03:44:05	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	SELL	274	100¢	$274	0x27307f…
07-12 02:45:32	ufc cor mar 2026 07 11	Mario Bautista	BUY	652	92¢	$600	0x61db4b…
07-12 02:44:59	ufc cor mar 2026 07 11	Cory Sandhagen	SELL	231	10¢	$23	0x82e421…
07-12 02:38:26	ufc cor mar 2026 07 11	Cory Sandhagen	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x92fc54…
07-12 02:03:59	ufc bra6 lon 2026 07 11	Brandon Royval	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x857e3a…
07-12 00:38:02	ufc cor mar 2026 07 11	Cory Sandhagen	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xb43c27…
07-12 00:33:59	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0x9ec096…
06-15 05:01:00	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xc96bc6…
06-14 15:20:57	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0xccaacc…
06-14 15:19:19	ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	Sean O'Malley	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xd8f111…
06-14 15:18:40	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Mauricio Ruffy	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0xc4fbc0…
06-14 15:18:22	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xef0e36…
05-17 08:59:18	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	252	79¢	$200	0x485707…
05-10 06:33:21	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x241821…
05-09 11:01:31	UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)	King Green	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0xb1901c…
05-09 11:01:07	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Yaroslav Amosov	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xc2323b…
05-09 11:00:56	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sean Brady	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0xbc859e…
05-09 11:00:13	UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkov	BUY	351	57¢	$200	0xc4e19c…
05-04 08:53:02	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x64c190…
05-03 08:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xa47ebc…
05-03 08:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	109	30¢	$33	0x7652e8…
05-03 08:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0x65624f…
05-03 08:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	108	23¢	$25	0xec7522…
04-04 16:32:39	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	3,992	99¢	$3,952	0xf0d9b6…
04-04 15:55:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,949	99¢	$3,894	0x6dab61…
03-27 15:48:09	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	3,497	100¢	$3,483	0x8d0e48…
03-27 15:40:23	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	398	100¢	$396	0xfa6c7e…
02-16 10:15:19	russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xbeddcf…
02-16 10:06:27	us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x02d205…
01-24 15:52:26	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xbce757…
01-24 15:51:12	israel strikes iran by january 25 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4ced6f…
01-24 15:16:52	will the us strike somalia next 656	No	BUY	2,495	0¢	$10	0xa5d8d5…
01-24 15:14:40	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf77d7d…
01-24 15:05:04	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Pimblett	BUY	63	69¢	$43	0xc57862…