Cold-Detection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved

Trades

159

lifetime

Volume

$5.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$135

1 position

First seen

2026-01-16

last 06-11 05:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

99% 100% +$7

Politics

1% 0% $-5

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
AWS service disrupted by June 30?	No		-165	$-143	82¢	$-135	+$8	06-11 05:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
aws service disrupted by march 31 623	87	$3.5K	2,580	3,007	-427	open	—	03-24 02:43
AWS service disrupted by April 30?	42	$1.2K	978	978	+0	open	—	05-01 15:54
AWS service disrupted by June 30?	1	$143	0	165	-165	open	—	06-11 05:38
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 15?	3	$58	120	0	+120	open	—	05-15 01:04
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	02-01 19:37
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 8?	1	$10	17	0	+17	Up	+$7	05-08 11:51
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 14?	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-14 18:00
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$6	157	0	+157	open	—	01-31 10:19
will israel or the us target tehran 812	2	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	02-06 21:57
aws service disrupted by january 31	1	$5	62	0	+62	open	—	01-16 21:11
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	$-5	02-24 03:06
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	01-29 17:59
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	02-24 03:07
gpt ads by march 31 269 364 978	2	$3	20	20	+0	open	—	02-08 22:46
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	1	$3	30	0	+30	open	—	02-28 20:47
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	1	$2	100	0	+100	open	—	02-03 21:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	01-30 02:01
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	02-19 18:59
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$2	0	143	-143	open	—	02-19 16:57
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$1	200	0	+200	open	—	01-16 20:47
will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	01-16 20:46
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$1	17	0	+17	open	—	01-16 20:48
will xai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$1	24	0	+24	open	—	01-16 20:48
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	1	$1	77	0	+77	open	—	01-16 20:51
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	02-25 02:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 05:38:16	AWS service disrupted by June 30?	No	SELL	165	87¢	$143	0x67571c…
05-15 01:04:14	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x49202f…
05-15 00:38:20	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xeec789…
05-15 00:23:41	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xf08a34…
05-14 18:00:30	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1f66cd…
05-08 11:51:31	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x8195f2…
05-01 15:54:34	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	SELL	295	100¢	$293	0xe9165d…
04-30 22:25:18	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	88	67¢	$59	0x52bd8e…
04-30 22:24:32	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x908f0e…
04-30 22:08:40	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x9550bd…
04-30 22:08:16	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xedc9b0…
04-30 22:08:04	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x5ea999…
04-30 22:06:40	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	86	49¢	$42	0xff9d1f…
04-30 22:04:06	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x140d16…
04-30 22:02:54	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x32b294…
04-24 19:48:52	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x15bd58…
04-18 09:04:22	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	70	16¢	$11	0x851746…
04-18 08:27:46	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	70	20¢	$14	0xb68221…
04-14 17:04:48	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xa2776f…
04-14 17:03:48	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x0c305c…
04-14 16:07:55	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x884b47…
04-09 11:04:33	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xccfd17…
04-05 14:08:17	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0xdf4f39…
04-04 17:50:01	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	110	53¢	$58	0xf0904a…
04-02 22:00:25	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x5d9177…
04-02 21:58:17	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	90	63¢	$57	0x544d18…
04-02 21:46:29	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	160	64¢	$102	0xb1d598…
04-02 21:36:03	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xedc38a…
04-02 20:49:57	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	85	80¢	$68	0xe980e5…
03-30 09:54:56	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	6	58¢	$3	0x84af93…
03-30 09:41:40	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0x2401fc…
03-30 09:33:08	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x4dcebf…
03-30 09:30:32	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xfc668c…
03-29 11:00:30	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xa17b5b…
03-29 10:03:34	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xe4eda4…
03-29 09:58:46	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xb149d1…
03-29 09:57:22	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xcf2d93…
03-29 09:54:14	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xb1c841…
03-29 09:53:38	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x0c1dbb…
03-29 09:53:22	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x3acc68…
03-29 06:27:44	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	59¢	$0	0xa616e3…
03-28 21:45:34	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x85b451…
03-28 21:43:04	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x8afa23…
03-28 21:42:16	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x72b5ef…
03-28 21:42:00	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x95045a…
03-28 16:24:33	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x36b52d…
03-28 15:21:35	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xc35d10…
03-28 14:09:37	AWS service disrupted by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x758c56…
03-24 02:43:53	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x7946a6…
03-24 02:31:53	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	675	95¢	$641	0x1a5426…
03-24 02:31:03	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x3a1038…
03-24 02:29:23	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	32	95¢	$31	0x00681d…
03-24 02:29:21	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	24	95¢	$22	0x37c7c8…
03-24 02:28:49	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xfc2e07…
03-24 02:28:47	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb4f963…
03-24 02:28:45	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	45	95¢	$42	0x169305…
03-24 02:28:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x4a864e…
03-24 02:28:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	95	95¢	$91	0x0d76b9…
03-24 02:28:21	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	116	95¢	$111	0xdc2d41…
03-24 02:27:49	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	885	95¢	$841	0x8114ec…
03-24 02:27:47	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0x5d1847…
03-24 02:27:45	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	90	95¢	$86	0x0ae21a…
03-24 02:27:19	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	945	95¢	$898	0x5ee59f…
03-24 02:27:01	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x1b53f3…
03-24 02:26:59	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x05ebe4…
03-24 02:26:13	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xbad3c1…
03-24 02:26:13	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x9a6f9c…
03-24 02:26:13	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x6973ed…
03-24 02:26:11	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xb31d1e…
03-24 02:25:55	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0x1714c8…
03-23 18:35:15	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x2f6bf3…
03-22 09:01:55	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xea50b5…
03-22 09:00:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	27	16¢	$4	0x206c66…
03-22 08:59:23	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x7271e2…
03-22 08:59:17	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	113	15¢	$17	0xa78988…
03-22 08:58:59	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xdd6116…
03-22 04:52:27	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	208	21¢	$44	0xb4941c…
03-22 04:35:25	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	25	21¢	$5	0xd678c5…
03-22 02:37:07	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	51	21¢	$11	0xaf8a3c…
03-22 01:08:31	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x560dab…
03-21 19:09:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0x17c6e4…
03-21 16:05:07	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x8ba104…
03-21 15:05:59	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3bd23f…
03-21 14:57:23	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0xdd5a11…
03-21 14:57:17	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	92	23¢	$21	0xfda860…
03-21 14:56:29	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0x98b8b4…
03-21 11:03:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0xbebb7d…
03-21 02:45:33	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x913d95…
03-20 18:45:21	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xb4ae58…
03-20 10:48:27	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x874a8c…
03-19 00:11:37	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x8c95a2…
03-18 04:23:03	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x6b383b…
03-18 02:23:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xca1835…
03-17 14:52:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbc580a…
03-17 06:32:07	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x491d57…
03-17 05:49:13	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x73f653…
03-17 01:25:35	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xbbc265…
03-17 00:36:09	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x899e05…
03-16 08:44:29	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0xf64f27…
03-16 08:44:01	aws service disrupted by march 31 623	Yes	BUY	163	26¢	$42	0xc937a1…