Tragic-Guess — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$126

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 05-13 12:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 43% $-10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	2	$14	13	13	+0	Up	+$4	05-12 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	1	$11	25	0	+25	Down	$-11	05-13 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$10	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 17:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	3	$8	9	0	+9	Down	$-1	05-13 12:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	3	$7	7	5	+1	Up	+$1	05-12 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	3	$7	15	5	+10	Down	+$1	05-12 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	2	$6	20	20	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 14:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	3	$6	33	8	+25	Up	+$2	05-12 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Up	+$3	05-12 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 17:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	1	$3	11	0	+11	Up	$-3	05-12 18:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	2	$3	8	0	+8	Down	$-3	05-13 11:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$3	5	5	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 17:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-12 13:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	2	$2	22	0	+22	Down	$-2	05-13 12:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	1	$2	7	0	+7	Down	$-2	05-08 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	2	$2	14	0	+14	Up	$-2	05-12 17:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$1	17	17	+0	Up	$-1	05-08 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	+$1	05-12 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Up	$-1	05-08 17:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	1	$1	7	0	+7	Up	$-1	05-08 18:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	+$1	05-13 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	1	$1	11	0	+11	Down	$-1	05-12 16:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	+$1	05-08 16:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	1	$1	4	0	+4	Up	$-1	05-12 19:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	$-1	05-08 16:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	1	$1	11	0	+11	Down	$-1	05-12 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	1	$1	4	0	+4	Down	$-1	05-08 17:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	$-1	05-08 16:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 12:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0x402f72…
05-13 12:31:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6cae77…
05-13 12:31:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x0055aa…
05-13 12:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x070af6…
05-13 12:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x321d6d…
05-13 12:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf3b09e…
05-13 12:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x72e828…
05-13 11:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x0b4a75…
05-13 11:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x2056d7…
05-12 19:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf8b19b…
05-12 19:04:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x3496f3…
05-12 18:57:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd48408…
05-12 18:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x5c1255…
05-12 18:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xce2873…
05-12 18:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	65¢	$4	0x85ab1e…
05-12 18:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x645c75…
05-12 18:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc96e82…
05-12 18:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xdab686…
05-12 18:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x361ebc…
05-12 17:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	67¢	$4	0x735062…
05-12 17:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x89cb4e…
05-12 17:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xdfe837…
05-12 17:39:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x23c762…
05-12 17:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc7a151…
05-12 17:16:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x040369…
05-12 16:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x07a09e…
05-12 16:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1f989d…
05-12 14:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1e0ce4…
05-12 14:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x22a841…
05-12 14:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$5	0x5a2ac8…
05-12 14:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x5acc2a…
05-12 14:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x93c6be…
05-12 13:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	13	69¢	$9	0xb58a0d…
05-12 13:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x5a6749…
05-12 13:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xebc3cc…
05-12 13:00:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6f358f…
05-12 12:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x12b71f…
05-12 12:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x9ad567…
05-12 12:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x630ae4…
05-12 12:32:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x23af85…
05-12 12:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xa6fd5e…
05-08 18:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x789244…
05-08 17:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x9b78b4…
05-08 17:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x34d6a5…
05-08 17:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xab802e…
05-08 17:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x2e628e…
05-08 17:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x14f705…
05-08 17:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0xdedcc5…
05-08 17:32:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x42c737…
05-08 17:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4e6b6d…
05-08 17:23:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x2f8b56…
05-08 17:22:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x67f82b…
05-08 16:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x260cde…
05-08 16:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x0ed4e4…
05-08 16:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xbae5db…
05-08 16:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x985f97…
05-08 16:05:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x229811…