Difficult-Possibility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.9%

Resolved

Trades

276

lifetime

Volume

$843

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 05-08 07:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 31% $-10

Other

38% — —

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	16	$119	1,278	80	+1,198	open	—	04-26 21:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$59	63	63	+0	open	—	04-26 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	4	$50	52	2	+50	open	—	04-26 19:34
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 27?	2	$42	27	26	+0	open	—	04-26 22:02
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	3	$37	41	25	+16	open	—	04-29 21:31
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 26?	2	$36	12	32	-19	open	—	04-26 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	4	$35	43	31	+12	open	—	04-26 17:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	5	$31	34	0	+34	open	—	04-29 17:27
LoL: Francesinhas vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	04-29 23:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	4	$16	18	6	+12	open	—	04-26 19:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	8	$16	21	6	+15	open	—	04-27 09:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$15	15	14	+1	open	—	04-26 17:54
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?	2	$11	17	16	+0	open	—	04-27 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	6	$10	17	8	+9	open	—	04-27 08:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	8	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	04-26 18:04
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26?	3	$10	41	39	+2	open	—	04-26 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	04-26 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	04-29 23:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	2	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	04-26 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	5	$10	8	8	+0	Down	$-0	05-07 09:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	6	$9	114	0	+114	open	—	04-26 19:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	3	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	04-27 07:59
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?	2	$9	6	6	+0	open	—	04-27 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	3	$7	8	1	+7	open	—	04-26 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	5	$7	9	5	+4	Down	$-1	05-07 09:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	5	$7	16	0	+16	open	—	04-26 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	1	$7	12	0	+12	open	—	04-27 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	5	$7	9	7	+3	open	—	04-26 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	3	$7	8	3	+6	open	—	04-29 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	2	$6	10	0	+10	open	—	04-26 16:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 07:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x5c25ab…
05-08 07:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x2268b6…
05-08 07:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x72e304…
05-08 07:26:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x68d1e8…
05-08 07:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb1efce…
05-08 07:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4a75d3…
05-08 07:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7bb7d3…
05-08 07:21:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdbca51…
05-08 07:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x92eaad…
05-07 13:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x07e125…
05-07 13:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xc679bd…
05-07 13:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd9c454…
05-07 12:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	50¢	$1	0xdeb04f…
05-07 12:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x71f418…
05-07 12:07:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x5c425b…
05-07 11:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x58d00f…
05-07 10:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9d3988…
05-07 10:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9af759…
05-07 09:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x718fc7…
05-07 09:57:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1ad4c1…
05-07 09:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x862189…
05-07 09:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x6c60aa…
05-07 09:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x9663a6…
05-07 09:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x5f192e…
05-07 09:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2b5eb3…
05-07 09:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x112c89…
05-07 09:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x96dd02…
05-07 09:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xe642e7…
05-07 09:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc9b1d8…
05-07 09:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x96b682…
05-07 09:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x85a6d6…
05-07 09:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x722596…
05-07 09:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x538715…
05-07 09:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa86992…
05-07 09:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf95c01…
05-07 09:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8df818…
05-07 09:12:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x66c956…
05-07 09:10:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3cb8cc…
05-07 09:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x13fc36…
05-07 09:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x534ccb…
05-07 09:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x176ae3…
05-07 09:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdecba4…
05-07 09:01:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0xf01209…
05-07 09:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x475fff…
05-07 09:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x324723…
05-07 08:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x82ae51…
05-07 08:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7fde9e…
05-07 08:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe974a8…
05-07 08:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5e5b59…
05-07 08:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x4f74b5…
05-07 08:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb248c8…
05-07 08:46:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe692a6…
05-07 08:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x26a4b9…
05-07 08:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x41aeed…
05-07 08:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x61d833…
05-07 08:35:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3bc478…
05-07 08:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xfd622a…
05-07 08:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfd443a…
05-07 08:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc5f167…
05-07 08:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x26c5d8…
05-07 08:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe80a65…
05-07 08:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x950b2e…
05-07 08:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdd5e4e…
05-07 08:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x60c6a7…
04-30 15:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xd09f0b…
04-29 23:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x6d2a66…
04-29 23:38:28	LoL: Francesinhas vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	Francesinhas	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x8d182a…
04-29 21:40:20	LoL: Francesinhas vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	Francesinhas	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x1cbcbe…
04-29 21:31:24	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	FlyQuest	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x04e6bd…
04-29 21:29:30	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Sentinels	SELL	25	56¢	$14	0x682fa4…
04-29 20:46:48	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Sentinels	BUY	25	71¢	$18	0x21563c…
04-29 18:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x2e1380…
04-29 18:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x3420cb…
04-29 18:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	4	12¢	$0	0xbd6acf…
04-29 18:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x773fd4…
04-29 18:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x96435c…
04-29 18:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x623b33…
04-29 18:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xcbee3e…
04-29 18:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd963f1…
04-29 18:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdeb83b…
04-29 17:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7eeb6c…
04-29 17:54:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x5ae144…
04-29 17:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x7bd2ed…
04-29 17:48:20	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x9bf985…
04-29 17:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf3df15…
04-29 17:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe66639…
04-29 17:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0xc0b001…
04-29 17:40:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xbcad16…
04-29 17:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6637c5…
04-29 17:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x0a82a2…
04-29 17:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb84ef6…
04-29 17:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x84cb0b…
04-29 17:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x63341c…
04-29 17:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xcf0bba…
04-29 17:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf3c3be…
04-29 17:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5b5b93…
04-29 17:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6a0816…
04-27 18:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xcfb119…
04-27 18:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xce0088…
04-27 18:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x6bf374…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	98	$66.7K	2,750	05-08 14:43
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	91	$7.34K	1,648	05-08 07:28
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	89	$103.8K	11,988	05-08 07:29
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	89	$28.9K	8,539	05-08 07:29
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	89	$27.6K	4,620	05-08 07:29
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	89	$27.2K	7,950	05-08 07:29
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	88	$222.6K	7,114	05-08 07:29
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	88	$69.8K	4,538	05-08 07:27