Flustered-Belief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

Trades

148

lifetime

Volume

$336

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-07 00:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 43% $-14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	4	$39	58	58	+0	Down	+$19	05-06 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	6	$27	66	66	+0	open	—	05-04 01:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	3	$19	20	15	+5	Down	+$3	05-07 00:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$19	217	0	+217	Down	$-19	05-07 00:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	Up	+$4	05-06 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	3	$14	158	8	+150	Up	+$2	05-06 21:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	5	$12	120	61	+59	open	—	05-04 02:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$10	10	10	+0	Up	$-0	05-06 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	4	$8	27	27	+0	open	—	05-04 01:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	2	$7	8	8	+0	Down	+$5	05-06 20:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	4	$6	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-06 18:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$6	75	12	+62	open	—	05-04 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	4	$6	17	17	+0	open	—	05-04 02:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	2	$6	17	17	+0	open	—	05-04 01:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$5	17	17	+0	open	—	05-04 00:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	3	$5	55	5	+50	Up	+$1	05-06 18:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	+$3	05-06 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-06 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	$-5	05-07 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-06 23:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	$-5	05-06 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Up	$-5	05-06 20:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	1	$5	18	0	+18	Down	$-5	05-06 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	1	$5	18	0	+18	Up	$-5	05-06 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	2	$5	42	0	+42	open	—	05-04 02:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	3	$4	14	14	+0	open	—	05-04 01:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	05-06 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	Down	+$2	05-06 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	3	$4	20	10	+10	open	—	05-04 02:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	2	$4	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	05-06 22:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 00:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	198	7¢	$14	0x36d4c9…
05-07 00:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe77f84…
05-07 00:19:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0xcd2d27…
05-07 00:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe8d5bc…
05-07 00:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x0af91b…
05-07 00:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3a29e0…
05-07 00:07:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	15	56¢	$8	0x36ee87…
05-07 00:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0xc687f6…
05-07 00:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x3892c3…
05-06 23:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xc4ae61…
05-06 23:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x6c7f8f…
05-06 23:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf5b394…
05-06 23:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x173cf3…
05-06 23:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x70751e…
05-06 23:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	56	48¢	$27	0x493831…
05-06 23:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	56	16¢	$9	0x968f21…
05-06 23:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa45d4a…
05-06 23:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x9fefad…
05-06 23:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x6be44b…
05-06 23:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xccb591…
05-06 23:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x922dac…
05-06 23:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xce8880…
05-06 23:14:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x0d0426…
05-06 23:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	24	5¢	$1	0x90944f…
05-06 23:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x82d53d…
05-06 23:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x13e53b…
05-06 23:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf6bb6e…
05-06 22:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x26d3b7…
05-06 22:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4ee5e9…
05-06 22:03:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	12	20¢	$3	0xbd0167…
05-06 22:02:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x098e07…
05-06 21:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xcd70d3…
05-06 21:55:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5c3e0c…
05-06 21:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc38055…
05-06 21:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x133f1f…
05-06 21:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa294fd…
05-06 21:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0x20dd4d…
05-06 21:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb37253…
05-06 21:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x1a390b…
05-06 20:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xd11c62…
05-06 20:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x96a38f…
05-06 20:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xaee776…
05-06 20:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa53b2f…
05-06 20:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x112e89…
05-06 20:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x7fbd96…
05-06 20:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x2cc13c…
05-06 20:22:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x84b49e…
05-06 19:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x4006b4…
05-06 19:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x33cb75…
05-06 18:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x738380…
05-06 18:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$3	0x5ca251…
05-06 18:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe4bf82…
05-06 18:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x102916…
05-06 18:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x71c3d9…
05-06 18:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb9f38e…
05-06 18:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xd7ccf1…
05-06 18:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x637aa2…
05-06 18:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xf09b70…
05-06 18:40:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xacd2e9…
05-06 18:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	4	12¢	$0	0x76845b…
05-06 18:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5fedff…
05-06 18:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x920267…
05-06 18:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5fa61c…
05-06 18:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xfd0fe9…
05-06 18:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa32a2a…
05-04 03:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xee209c…
05-04 03:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x8fc4b5…
05-04 03:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x728c5b…
05-04 03:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7a6ac0…
05-04 03:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x8ee461…
05-04 03:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x70dde5…
05-04 03:01:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbedda6…
05-04 02:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x5b41e4…
05-04 02:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x90a9ae…
05-04 02:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0x1a9dce…
05-04 02:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x015593…
05-04 02:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd94fea…
05-04 02:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0xeacde4…
05-04 02:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xf54171…
05-04 02:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x6d4aa6…
05-04 02:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbb13e7…
05-04 02:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5a15e2…
05-04 02:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x837c5d…
05-04 02:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	61	13¢	$8	0x404fe3…
05-04 02:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x52778e…
05-04 02:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8987c4…
05-04 02:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	38	10¢	$4	0x9e1e52…
05-04 02:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x010c63…
05-04 02:31:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x0b29d0…
05-04 02:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0557da…
05-04 02:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0xba19f3…
05-04 02:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb3e733…
05-04 02:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa86a60…
05-04 02:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x7fb993…
05-04 02:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0xa14050…
05-04 02:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0xdd7f24…
05-04 02:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3c94cd…
05-04 02:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0xccd338…
05-04 02:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5d899d…
05-04 02:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xa0678e…